Buying a gun does not make your adult cohabitants safer, according to study

Awhile back, I mentioned I'd enjoy owning a gun, but haven't in part because my wife does not want to live in a house with a gun. Some posters here suggested it would be best
to own a gun to be able to protect my family, though kids getting a hold of the gun could be an issue. So, I wanted to visit/revisit the issue of whether owning a gun, particularly
at home, makes your family safer.

If the answer is no, then people ought to know that to able to make an informed choice in whether to buy a gun or not, and not erroneously buy a gun "to make their home safer."
I decided to go over a study that seems to address my dilemma:

https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M21-3762#r18-M213762

A cohort study in California, same state I live in, n = ~17 million persons who met inclusion criteria followed for 6.9 years on average. Included persons start the study being unexposed adults (no recent history of gun ownership, do not live with a gun owner). Exposure occurs when somebody they live with subsequently owns a gun. Outcome is their risk of homicide.

Key Results:
*"Cohabitants of handgun owners had more than double the homicide rate (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.33 [CI, 1.78 to 3.05]." This was driven by gun deaths at home, especially by intimate partners (7-fold increased risk).

*To check if "acute threats" would confound the results (threat by a stalker, or husband buys gun because he plans to kill wife, e.g.), they repeated the analysis excluding the year of gun purchase and found the results to remain robust. "The adjusted hazard ratios for overall homicide risk from analyses that excluded the first 12 months and 24 months of exposure time were 2.30 (CI, 1.76 to 3.01) and 1.90 (CI, 1.25 to 2.90), respectively."

*In terms of areas with more violence confounding the results, this is not an issue because: "Compared with cohabitants of nonowners, cohabitants of owners were more likely to be female (66.5% vs. 52.3%), be White (72.6% vs. 61.3%), and reside outside an urban area (14.5% vs. 9.1%)."

*All-cause mortality, however, was not different as homicide is rare compared to other causes of death in this group (2.2k of 725.4k deaths). And the overall risk is small:
"These estimates imply that, for every 100 000 nonowners whose cohabitant acquired a handgun, 4.03 more died by firearm homicide in the ensuing 5 years than died among nonowners whose household remained gun-free."

*"Among homicides occurring at home, the hazard ratio comparing the rate of homicides perpetrated by strangers among owners with the corresponding rate among nonowners was [not different because CI crosses 1] 1.47 (CI, 0.34 to 6.41)." In this huge study, effective protection against homicide by strangers was not observed.

*Among homicides that occurred at home, the relationship of perpetrator to victim was unknown for 26.6%; among the rest, the victim was killed by a spouse or intimate partner
in 36.9%, another family member in 25.9%, a friend or acquaintance in 20.9%, and a stranger in 16.2%.

Summary: Living with somebody who owns a gun does not make you safer. It makes you very slightly less safe, as most homicides are by family/partners, not strangers. This study does not support buying a gun to protect your family. On the other hand, if your partner buys a gun, don't freak out. They are very unlikely to kill or save you. The design of the study seems decent.

 

Somebody might argue that more people who own a gun may live in a place or in a situation in which their life is more at risk than others. However, four times the rate is very compelling. Too much for that to make any significant difference. Also offset by the fact that situational circumstances like this would be accentuated by people around you having guns themselves guns.

Bottom line is that more guns = more gun deaths. And less guns = less gun deaths. This is what logic dictates. And now there are studies demonstrating this.

 

So, did you get rid of your gun?

 

Well, that depends on who you listen too and what kind of slanted statistic you might believe.
Is there a statistic for gun owners vs responsible gun owners?
It seems to me with 40% of the population owning over 350 million guns, if gun ownership was actually the problem, why are so many not shot?

Example.
Going back 3 generations of myself and my wife, both sides of the family are gun owners. My wife and I have conceal carry permits. We don't have them because we carry concealed, we have them because we do have hand guns in our vehicles at times and without a CCP its a felony.

Additionally, there has never been any instance or injury from 3 generations of ownership. To add to that equation, none of our friends (who also own firearms) have any injury from their gun ownership. Not that this has any real meaning to these generated statistics but in my 63 years of gun ownership, I only know of two people who were family friends that committed suicide with a handgun and I don't know anyone in my lifetime who has been injured or killed because they own guns. And those who decide to kill themselves, didn't make those decisions because they own a gun.

Am I living in some special bubble between Florida and North Carolina in 63 years that magically has sheltered everyone we know from these statistics? I find that very hard to believe. I would also say that most of the people we know and associate with the most are former law enforcement or military which is predominate in mine and my wife's family line.

But common sense weapon safety is just that. Common sense.

So I would tell you, if you don't think you are responsible enough to own a firearm, don't do it. If you aren't simply familiar with proper gun use and ownership to know what precautions to take, simply take a CCP class or go to your local indoor gun range. They are MORE than happy to train you on use and safeguards. You don't even have to own a gun. They will rent them to you if you choose to take a class.

Then you can asses for yourself (Instead of some statistic) if gun ownership is right for you. There is absolutely no shame in saying, nope, this isn't for me. That would make you educated enough to make a decision thats best for you. I would tell you not to allow statistics and fear govern your decisions.

In my leftime I have had 4 instances where a weapon saved my life. Two of which were during military service that doesn't count. One was being attacked by a homeless person while sitting at a red light, I was giving money too. I was grabbed around the throat as he tried to pull me from the vehicle. Sticking my 1911 in his face ended the situation without further incident, other than him being arrested by an officer who witnessed the ordeal in the opposite lane.

The second was coming home to find the door had been forced open and confronting two idiots robbing our house. Would it have been different if I didn't have a gun? Who knows. What I do know is they were put on the ground until law enforcement arrived and at no time was I or my family at the mercy of their decisions in a very highly charged confrontation.

Could I have simply driven off and just called the police. Yup, I could have. But I didn't know if any of my children were home at the time and I wasn't going to abandon them to seek help that could have been 10 minutes away.

So in my opinion, owning a gun is like having a condom. Its better to have one and not need it, than to need it and not have one.

 

They only studied gun owners that were living with non gun owners. The study should conclude that those without guns were more likely to be murdered than those with guns. It’s a shame to hear of people dying defenseless.

 

It’s the fire extinguisher paradox.

 

"slightly less safe"? I love concise/precise scientific work. Interesting that use "adult cohabitant" rather than "family member" or "significant other".
Pablum for the anti-gunners, a morning laugh for serious people.

 

It allows you to assemble data from places like crack houses or other dens of iniquity where so much of this violence occurs... Did anyone else notice that until democrats really started to consolidate crime and poverty into the ghettos that make them feel so superior, that we didn't have these concerns? So, why shouldn't be address the underlying causes of this violence, rather than make sweeping policy that overreaches into places where these concerns aren't warranted?

 

"Lies, damn lies, and statistics". Numbers by themselves rarely prove anything until a context is defined.

 

Thank you for posting this study. But we have the facts long before this study. Just look at the murder rate US vs Rest of the Industrial world.

But none of those study, facts will convince a single person who promote 2nd Amendment right. Facts and Logics doesn’t exist in their Universe.

 

Deciding if you should own a firearm or not should not be determined by a gaggle of number crunching egg heads with little real life experience.

Only you know how likely your children are to abuse a gun if they find it and your wife's irrational phobia is no reason to limit your home defense options.

There are several ways to make your home more secure without having a gun and you must be committed to become and stay proficient with the gun you choose for yourself .

Even though having a gun with me has saved my life 3 times, I still don't think that having a gun around is wise for everyone.
Only you know your situation and staying proficient is essential.
Finally, I know that phones fail and even when they don't:
When seconds count, the police are minutes away

Thanks,

 

My guns didn’t make my home safer nor unsafe. Basically there was no change from before when I didn’t have guns. My guns literally sit in a locked gun safe until I’m ready to take them out to target shoot at my gun club.

 

yea, let's ignore statistics and go by feelings instead

 

Nope. Examine the data, the methodology, and the conclusions. Ask questions like why did they use "cohabitants" rather than "family members" or "roommates"? Point out their conclusion is "a slight difference". Stuff like that.

 

It is adult cohabitant. This is a broader category than family member or significant other. Some people at some points in their lives live with roommates or friends.

You laugh mostly because you don’t get it. It’s actually not a very threatening article for gun rights. It mostly shows that owning a gun isn’t helpful for protecting your family or housemates on average in California. But the odds of its presence leading to murder is a meager extra 1 in 25,000 per 5 years of exposure. So people should do what they want, but buying a gun for home defense without a specific threat is not helpful.

 

That was my interpretation, not theirs. Hazard ratio of death did not increase, but hazard ratio of homicide doubled, by living with a gun owner. Interpret that as you will. It is a slight difference in terms of actual risk of being murdered. Double a very risk is still small.

I am not sure why you dislike cohabitants, but see my prior post for that.

 

Cohabitants is much more descriptive is why

 

Bet you wear a seat belt.

 

It answers the specific question of whether you are safer from murder by living with a gun owner vs not. Being murdered living with a gun owner is about twice as likely, but this is still rare vs other causes of death. Many people in the study were old (21-110 age range, average in 40s) so much more likely to die of cancer or MI, so I do wonder if it would look even worse if they did it with an age cap.

Both people being armed wouldn’t help. Seriously? Lol

 

I do not find it at all surprising that the presence of a deadly weapon makes everyone around less safe.

Accidental shootings coming to mind first, then murders of passion in the moment, then robbers shooting immediately (and before the gun owner sees it coming) to protect themselves while they would be less likely to shoot occupants they don't suspect are armed.

I certainly would not want to live with somebody who carries a gun, for all of the reasons above.

 

Huh?

 

The one constant in your posts is the uncanny ability to ignore the Criminal element

 

YUP, like Criminals, right

 

Homicide Deaths Among Adult Cohabitants of Handgun Owners in California, 2004 to 2016
FREE
A Cohort Study

 

My body, my choice.