COMPLETE COLLAPSE–> Nate Silver: No One Should be Surprised if Democrats Only Pick Up 19 Seats and F

prove they work for the DNC

 

Nate Silver is open about his methods and his results. He uses the results of polls (weighted for accuracy and adjusted for bias) to predict the range of outcomes. Unlike other pundits he rarely (if ever ?) comes out and says "the result will be X". but instead usually gives it in terms of the percentage chance of a range of outcomes. If the polls vary significantly over time, so will his forecasts.

As the polls move, so do his forecasts in response to those movements in the polls.

IIRC (and human memory is fallible so I'd appreciate it if someone could provide a link), the forecast immediately prior to the election was that the Democratic Party had an 85% chance of taking the House (which meant that the GOP had a 15% chance of retaining the House) and that the most likely outcome was that the Democratic Party would gain between 20 and 30 seats - this is broadly in line with the actual results.

 

Just a bump to remind the OP that not only was the phrase ""so we go from there is an 84 percent cahance of the dems taking the house to democrats may only pick up 19 seats and fail to take the house" really inumerate, but also with today's win in Maine for the dems that the democrats look like they are like to end up with EXACTLY the amount of congressmen that Silver considered to be the most likely. This was the equivalent of taking 70 10 sided die (because that is the number of seats that were in fact competitive) and having each one of them weighted (ie 8 red sides and 2 blue sides for a race where the republican candidate is heavily favoures) and predicting exactly the number of blue and red die face showing. Looks like Silver will be off by 1 in terms of the most probable outcome in the senate. But still the 2nd most likely scenario he predicted.
So at the end of the day: who is more credible, thegatewaypundit, Rasmussen, Gatewood, or Nate Silver? I know who my money is on.

 

Dear generic leftists, first the equivalent of what Silver ended up saying is that the Dems could end up winning a huge majority in the House or next to nothing; which is pretty much the same as making the BOLD prediction that you could live to be 110 or then again maybe only forty. Well . . . duh!

The second point is that Silver AND the lock step bought and paid for by the DNC polling companies ALL led with with political equivalent of the 110 years of life span prediction for week after week in an effort to convince GOPers that they might as well not go out and vote because the Dems were going to win it all anyway. Silver and they only readjusted their over-the-top predictions to reflect genuine reality at the very end so that if they were as wildly wrong as they were in -- say -- 2016 then they would look neither like total fool nor like bought and paid for Dem Party propagandists.

Ta-da! Enjoy.

 

Perhaps if I use smaller words I can make the point of this O.P. reach the actual brains of leftists. First the equivalent of what Silver ended up saying is that the Dems could end up winning a huge majority in the House or next to nothing; which is pretty much the same as making the BOLD prediction that you could live to be 110 or then again maybe only forty. Well . . . duh!

The second point is that Silver AND the lock step bought and paid for by the DNC polling companies ALL led with with political equivalent of the 110 years of life span prediction for week after week in an effort to convince GOPers that they might as well not go out and vote because the Dems were going to win it all anyway. Silver and they only readjusted their over-the-top predictions to reflect genuine reality at the very end so that if they were as wildly wrong as they were in -- say -- 2016 then they would look neither like total fool nor like bought and paid for Dem Party propagandists.

Ta-da! Enjoy.

 

Here is Nate Silver's forecast starting in August.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

Notice that he UNDERSOLD the Democrat's chances of winning in August going from 231 dems in the house in august to 234 in November. Not overselling it at all.
. You and Gateway keep on harping on Nate Silver's quote without understanding it. All he was saying was the equivalent of "if I throw 2 dice, the favored outcome (17 percent) is that the result will be a 7. Don't however be shocked if the roll ends up being a 2 (3 percent chance)" Clearly he needed to say that because people like you actually said that Nate Silver went from predicting an 85 percent chance of democrats winning the house TO a possibility of the republicans winning the house" without understanding that those 2 statements are excatly the same.
Nate Silver's final prediction lines up perfectly with his predictions in AUgust AND November. He did not adjust those numbers down as time went on, and in fact his odds of dems taking the house started off lower, as did his prediction for number of seats, and popular vote.

Please have a look at the link and get back to me.

Where you fail in your analogy is that Doctor Nate Silver said "this guy could live anywhere from 40 to 110, but my money is that he will live to be 70. 70 is the number I am predicting. If I were a betting man I would go with 70. 70. 70. 70." And the guy made it to 70,. And for some strange reason youhave decided that the Doctor is a quack and you want to sue hi

 

Dems have picked up 38 House seats.

may go to 44!!

 

Boy were you wrong.

 

This . . . didn't age well

 

They were right. It was historic in terms of margin of votes. 8.8 million more ballots cast for dems than for reps , an all-time record.

 

Absolute crickets from Gatewood. This is why I don't make predictions. But I don't mind gloating when those who do are dead wrong.

 

And yet they still didn’t win nearly as many seats as they wanted. Blue trickle of pee

 

The Dems succeeded in winning 40 seats against the GOP who had the advantage of gerrymandering and voter suppression on their side. The GOP margins were slashed in the districts that they did win thereby establishing that without gerrymandering and voter suppression they are going to lose heavily in the next decade.

 

Are you sure that Peeotus approved your reference to peeing?

As for Democrats, they wanted to win more seats than required in order to obtain a majority in the house and managed their single best performance since Watergate, using the number of seats measurement, and the absolute best performance of any midterm election, in terms of the popular vote difference.

 

Actually there is still one undecided in the Central Valley; the Republican incumbent/ Valadao was only ahead by under 500 votes. Pelosi went after 7 Republicans and flipped 6 districts to Democratic [totally in Orange county]. Now congress from California is 45/ or 46 Democrats while Republican number only 7 or 8.

 

No different than Hillary winning in a landslide. A WAVE is a deluge. This wasn’t by any stretch. A wave was when OBama lost all those seats. Remember that? That was a landslide.

 

Worst. Popular. Vote. Defeat. In. A. Midterm. In. United. States. History.

Deal with it.

 

So what. Seats matter and the predictions were waaaaaaaaaau off. It doesn’t matter if you win by 1 vote or 1 million. And how many of those total votes include CA and other high population metro areas where there are barely any republicans voting anymore! This is the same argument used during 2016. Popular vote DOESNT MATTER and never will if we wish to have a functioning Republic.

The MSM made it out like it was going to be a landslide, AGAIN, and they were wrong. The number of seats lost followed a predictable pattern for decades. It’s math and it was NOT surprising at all.

 

Biggest number of democratic seats picked up since watergate.

And way off? Are you serious? Nate Silver put the estimate at around 37 seats. Democrats will grab 39-40.

 

According to BLOTUS sycophants only white nationalist votes matter.

Where else did that happen?

Apartheid!

Is that the real meaning behind MAGA?

Make American Apartheid a reality?

 

This thread has not aged well....

 

Silver seems to have a crystal ball. He's by far the most accurate of the political handicappers.

 

I'm not sure that he has a crystal ball but he does seem to have both a pretty good way to weight the results of opinion polls from various sources, but more importantly, he's perfectly happy to update his predictions as and when the polls change, rather than feeling obliged to defend earlier forecasts.

 

That said, Silver (like everyone else) crapped the bed majorly in 2016.

 

On another thread we discussed the fact that Republicans picked up 54 seats in the 1994 elections. It should be borne in mind that Democrats could well have picked up at least another handful of seats were it not for the continued gerrymandering and other forms of vote cheating engaged in by the Republicans.

Funny how so many on the far right who insist that our troops are fighting overseas to preserve our freedom but that same freedom is denied to so many at home through this political corruption.