Corona Virus Update

You are averaging 2,700 deaths a day! Why are you not incomplete lock down?

 

There is no need to stay home. Community masking and PCR tests are all we need to deal with this pandemic.
/s

 

Is your PCR particularly good now then? The result of business as usual does not look promising on the current figures.

 

No, our PCR tests still have their inherent flaws. But it’s impossible to convince folks here to look for different solutions when business as usual doesn’t work. They just clamor for more “business”. LOL. We were told the pandemic exists because Trump didn’t get enough PCR tests and because some people don’t wear a mask. It’s impossible to convince them staying home is better than shopping, physical properties of masks don’t magically cease to exist in places other than public spaces, or that a test that can’t identify 50% of viral shedders (far less than 50% of contagious individuals) won’t save us on it’s own merits.

History shows lies told by governments to their populations have consequences. This is another example. Science has become whatever popular people say that or whatever a majority accepts. Empirical evidence only has value if it makes one feel good. We deserve what we got. We earned it.

 

You sound somewhat resigned to your fate!
I hope you are keeping yourself safe. Is your farm/ranch remote?

 

Actually, my state peaked in infections before Thanksgiving and is now down to October levels. Cases/deaths here are largely care homes (like most everywhere) and linked to meat packing communities. I know some plants are still having big problems but my brother-in-law works at the one nearest me and says mitigations there are very good. The problem is most workers are migrants (Hispanic and Somalian). They typically live in large groups in small houses/apartments so once an individual gets infected it means many more infections from the living unit. Also, the Hispanic demographic is the least likely to mask or social distance in public and are very social outside family units as well. So my County (which contains this packer and it’s workers) has had pretty high case rates all year. But if you get outside of that town, the rest of the county has very low case counts.

Personally, from mid February to sometime in July (I can’t remember now) I did not go out in public at all. For about three months in the summer I went to town a few times to retailers. When cases started going up statewide again last fall we went back into pretty much complete isolation. My wife’s family (who are self quarantined as much as medical conditions allow) did come visit before thanksgiving and I’ve been out to take them some things once since. It’s halfway across the state so don’t go there often.

Our self quarantine is mostly for my in law’s benefit and because I’ve found the best way not to lose games like this is to not play. I have had some pretty profound influences on my life the last 15 years or so that cemented ideals I already possessed from my upbringing about self reliance and being prepared for something like this. While I made a few easily survivable mistakes, like not having enough home canning lids laid by, this pandemic has verified I could self quarantine in relative luxury for a couple years and in survival mode nearly indefinitely.

The irony is I’ve never been concerned with my personal safety from C19. I’m much more likely statistically to die from being crushed by an 1800 lb hay bale, a vehicle, or an animal of some sort than die of C19. Also I’ve participated in some of the riskiest leisure activities since I was a kid, so I’m just not real risk averse.

But my wife and I enjoy home, we are used to being home for months in the spring anyway, and have resources to allow us to stay home, so that’s what we’ve done. That way I’m not part of the problem, which for me personally is more important than my safety.

Oh, my place is as remote as I want it to be I guess is the short answer. Where I choose to live is rural but not exactly remote. If this pandemic were caused by a more “dangerous” pathogen I have remote options.

Are you safe? By infection rates it looks a lot worse in the UK than here. And you have some pretty serious mitigations in place, correct?

 

There was a Louisiana congressman-elect Luke Letlow die from COVIV-19 and it was too bad he didn't get the vaccine that would have saved his life. He was 41.

 

@557 has convinced himself there is no value in PCR tests and contact tracing.

 

Breaking the rules is like playing Russian roulette with about 1 bullet per 1000.

Looks like he might have got it at his victory party.

Americans, please take Luke Letlow's death as the cautionary tale that it is - Upworthy

 

I had more respect for you when you would discuss science instead of making false statements about my posts. You will need to provide a quote of me stating there is no value in PCR tests and contract tracing or be moved to my informal list of members who lack credibility and integrity. Just because you can not refute the factual information I provide doesn’t give you license to misrepresent my statements.

 

Whatever was the case, Luke Letlow is gone.

 

@557. Your description could fit mine in many ways. I live in a village about 12 miles from Cambridge. A farming community where we've had 3 cases of Covid since it started. We have self isolated pretty much all the way through, ignoring the various unlockdowns and lockdowns. Both my wife and I are fit and healthy and crucially, not over weight. So our self imposed lockdown is about not spreading the virus rather than self preservation.
The big difference between you and I is work. I own 7 entertainment centres which were closed in March and have remained closed since. To date we have lost about $1.5million, so I am very focused on getting the economy going and sensitive to the constant government **** ups and lies that are delaying the vaccine roll out.

The higher numbers of cases you are seeing sweeping the UK at the moment is the new variant which is 70 times more infectious. So what was mostly under control is now a living nightmare in some areas and spreading daily.
I sincerely hope you get the vaccine before you get the variant.

 

I’m glad you are personally at low risk and I sympathize with your business problems. Fortunately for me I’ve moved away from having any employees so I don’t have the concern of keeping them healthy or leaving them jobless. But the loss of revenue to Covid is very real in my business as well. I know nobody likes to hear good things about Trump, but if not for the China trade deal and their purchases of commodities over the last 2-3 months I’d be as bad off as you are. Because the price of commodities has risen from Chinese purchases, I will sell some of my production above cost of production.

Outside of just cash flow problems, availability of inputs has been a problem as well. I had a tractor in the dealership shop from March to August that would have been a week repair without Covid.

Another big shortage that I’m not experiencing but many of my neighbors are is wet distillers products for cattle feed. Most ethanol plants are closed or at minimal production so byproduct for feed is very scarce. I have overproduced alfalfa hay the last couple years so when I could see ethanol plants were going to remain idle last fall I chopped extra corn silage and decided to feed that and my extra alfalfa inventory to the backgrounding calves instead of trying to purchase ethanol byproduct like normal. Many neighbors are having to adjust rations weekly based on byproduct availability and that inconsistency really compromises weight gains.

The biggest advantage I have is I can go work every day and make a difference, however small, to my bottom line. Even if I’m losing money, at least I’m involved in producing something. I can’t imagine having to sit by and watch everything you’ve worked for circle the drain without being able to do much to stop it. I hope things turn around quickly for you with the vaccines. Do you know if vaccinated people will be allowed to resume normal activities (like patronizing your business) or are the authorities going to wait and open for everyone all at once after the masses are vaccinated and cases are rare?

Isn’t it 70% more infectious, not 70 times more infectious? I haven’t checked the latest data I guess. Either way it’s bad news. I suspect we have the new strain. Even my state has seen a slight bump in infections when I checked Worldometer last night. Just anecdotally, I know for a fact a neighbor went to visit family in Colorado last week and drove right through the area (Elbert County) where there have been confirmed cases of the UK strain. Nebraska is vaccinating at a much faster pace than most states, but I doubt we will be fast enough to avoid all effects of the new strain.

 

I employ about 107 people, but I have had to lay off about 60 of them. The rest are being paid a mix of government furlough and company pay. I was lucky that my company was in a good position when this started or we'd have been gone by now, as it is, our future expansion pot has gone and myself and the other shareholders have pumped about 1/2 a million into the company. But we should recover once we start trading.
Its interesting seeing how Covid has effected everyone and your pressures are just a real as mine if a little different. I'm glad for you Trump did the China deal, even he couldn't do everything wrong

Was the alfalfa production a lucky break for you or something you planned. Many of our local farmers are complaining about the effects of the alcohol industry shut down.

Here you hit my nail right on its head. As a business man I am used to making plans, how to get through recessions, sales predictions, increased revenue streams etc etc. At the moment I have no idea. Every expectation I have made about my governments decisions so far has proved wrong.
We thought:
The government would get test and trace working
That children (Our main custom) would be exempted from lockdowns
That when Astra Zeneca announced in August that their vaccine worked, the government would rush it through.
That when the government said they had pre ordered 100million doses, I thought they meant they had, not they they would if it passed the final testing.
That when we finally got the vaccine past on the 1st December, we would be geared up and ready to roll it out.
I have been wrong on every count.
So, to your question, when will the government allow children to play together again. I have no idea. Logic says that as they are not at risk from the disease and the most vulnerable will be vaccinated by Feb, that we should open then, but experience tells me the government won't make its vaccine targets and my guess as to how far behind they will be and how they will react is just a wild guess. Very frustrating, especially as the shareholders and staff look to me for answers.

Oops my error, I meant 70%

That's good news on the vaccine, you can watch as the UK goes from being first to develop the vaccine (A private company) to being last to get it to the public (Our hopeless government)
Boris is a bit like Trump, he wants to tell everyone good news, but cannot deal with a crises or be bothered to read the analytics presented to him.

 

Yeah, I'm gonna miss some of those discussions.
But I would be remiss if I let statements like this stand unchallenged.
Especially when it’s clear PCR testing of asymptomatic individuals is a fool’s errand anyway.
When you say that, and you did, there is a danger some people will believe you when in fact we know for a fact.
Around 30% of patients who tested positive for the new coronavirus were asymptomatic, but they still carried just as much of the virus as symptomatic patients—and for nearly as long—according to a new study that experts say provides the first scientific evidence of asymptomatic transmission of the pathogen.
Can asymptomatic patients spread coronavirus? Here's what a new study reveals. (advisory.com)
So when I math that up it tells me it has kept at least 200,000 people out of the hospital and saved 70,000 from death.
And that number is just from catching asymptomatic people. There is probably an equal number saved by getting positive cases in quarantine and contact tracing of those people.
It's not about why it hasn't taken the number to zero. It's about how much worse it would have been without the tests.
So put me on any list you like because I won't buy into your testing is a waste theory.

 

I just hope you can hang on. Once this is over your product will see huge demand. Is the government furlough pay a normal unemployment type benefit or a special Covid allowance? I know my friend/neighbor that employs a handful of farm employees received some Paycheck Protection Program money. Supposedly there was some way to receive some for sole proprietor self employed like me, but I never looked into it. Seemed like trying to take advantage of a program designed to help employees, not me. I really feel for wage earners in non essential business sectors. I respect you keeping as many employees on as possible.

Just lucky circumstances or providence. I had a couple fields that needed taken out of alfalfa and planted to corn but I didn’t have time last spring to get it done so ended up with extra alfalfa. Is it alcohol for human consumption or fuel ethanol shutdown that’s concerning your farmers?

Yes, I can see your dilemma. At some point I guess we assume the government will make the wrong move nearly every time. Of course statistically that becomes less and less likely to be a function of chance over time. LOL. I better leave that there for now.

Yep, you are the guy in the hot seat. That’s what critics of employer/employee model businesses often overlook. There are disadvantages to being the employer as well as advantages. Same as for the employee.

There is supposed to be a study coming out soon that looks into the nuts and bolts of this new strain but so far no word. I just hope it isn’t close to the point a further small mutation renders current vaccines ineffective.

I’m a bit more pragmatic. I think all government is inefficient regardless of the figureheads. Here’s kind of a funny example in the context of government and agriculture this year I observed. We have the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) that handles all the crop data, regulations on practices, and subsidy payments. At least twice a year you have to drive 30 miles to go sign paperwork at their office. Every year I ask when we will be able to use an online docusign option. They always say the same thing: “hopefully soon”. They then explain how it’s been in development since the early 2000’s but just isn’t quite functional. Well, magically, this year I was offered the option for the first time! In the years between when USDA began working on their system I’ve sold real estate out of state with a power of attorney without ever meeting anyone in person or touching a pen and paper and done all manner of other business online. Yet it took almost 20 years for such technology to be implemented by government. I am never surprised when government fails. I’m flabbergasted when it succeeds.

This is why I’m such a fan of Federalism in the US. Let states compete with each other. I don’t want Trump, Fauci, Cuomo, or anyone else making decisions about C19 for my local area or state. When there’s competition some states will succeed because they have that option to do so. Exert central control on the whole country and my state could end up like New York. I would like to think Biden would handle a pandemic better, but he’s going to listen to the same type of “experts” Trump did so I’m not optimistic. Unless they intentionally gave Trump bad advice. That’s a possibility I’m just now working through in my own mind. For example, Fauci isn’t stupid. But he’s said and done things only a fool or incompetent would say or do. There has to be a reason. Alright, sorry for the rant.

Are your schools open? I’ve heard some are and some aren’t. Ours open up Tuesday.

 

Your strawman arguments never end. We have had the opportunity to move towards better tests. Even rapid antigen tests are better because they at least predict to some degree if a person is infectious or not. And they are orders of magnitude cheaper and faster. Yet they are just now getting authorization. Some physicians etc. have been pushing for a move away from PCR to other options but people like you aren’t even aware of this. You clamor for more of a thing that’s failing. I don’t want to use a flawed test that’s better than nothing. I want to move beyond and save MORE people. You prefer the status quo because you believed the “gold standard” hype and can’t emotionally detach from that propaganda. So you can challenge facts that show PCR to be inadequate all you want, but they are still facts. If we keep expecting PCR testing to do what we were told it would do but it’s inherent flaws prevent it from doing, we are definitely on a fool’s errand. That’s not debatable.

You’ve essentially made a Trump-like argument above. He says millions would be dead instead of hundreds of thousands without his actions. You (we) all hate him for saying that because it’s nonsensical. Yet you want to prop up PCR testing with the exact same argument. Just because it’s saved some lives doesn’t mean it’s the “gold standard” it’s been portrayed as. We have to be honest. Attaching our cart to the PCR horse and not being willing to reconsider other horses when our cart is in the ditch is not rational.

So you didn’t show your math above but I get your point. Yes, PCR has helped. I’ve been very clear about my respect for and love for the technology. But it isn’t the right technology for today’s needs of identifying contagious individuals. If we don’t acknowledge that, we can’t move on to something better.

I have never and will never use PF’s ignore function. But I do have a list in my mind of people who use fallacy more than fact or logic in discussions. You’ve always been far from that list. But when you attribute things to me
I’ve never said I don’t see any option but to consider moving you closer to that list.

Today’s post of yours encourages me somewhat. I’m more than willing to further explain my statements. But when I’ve clearly stated I believe PCR is one of the greatest inventions of mankind and I’m glad we have it, your statement like this is pure fallacy.

I’m used to fallacy being presented when I present facts. But I was frankly surprised to have your username attached this time.

 

I'm fully aware of the need for a better test. As a matter of fact it is one of the cornerstones of Biden.
Please do explain your statement about PCR testing of asymptomatics being a fools errand.
And do think in terms of what would have happened without them.

 

I can only offer an opinion.
I think it is a combination for politics and virus fatigue.
We have a leader going for full opening, and now Governors afraid to do unpopular things so a lockdown is now a mayors responsibility. I make a smiley at that but in the last week the mayor of the town I live near put in a curfew on bars because the governor wouldn't.
Our positivity rate is back up to 18%. Almost as high as it for when we shut down the bars completely last time.
It's like we have given up.

 

The furlough scheme in the UK is one giant success for this government. And I than you for reminding me! The government are currently paying 80% of the wages of anyone who was in employment on April 1st and is unable to work because of government restrictions. It is such a good idea I think it should be considered for future recessions (I will elaborate in a separate thread as we are likely to go seriously off topic.)

Its the by products of the drinks industry, beer making spent grain is cheap and highly nutritious plus many farmers supplement income by making Beer and gin.

My main problem is the lack of information. I don't need dates, but scenarios. When we get X vaccinated you can do Y
Etc. But we get NO forward predictions other than the BBC guessing wildly.

Yeah, but truth is I love my job.

I read something the other day about another new strain in Italy. Feels like the virus knows its beat and is going for broke.

Yes, a good point well made. But when your desperate for news its hard to remain sanguine.

No apology needed, I am fascinated with the juxtaposition of federal and state, Its so obvious to you Americans that you never really understand how baffling it is to us across the pond. I've tried to read how it works, but it feels like Einsteins special theory.

Yes. The government are DETERMINED that schools MUST open, which means they'll shut next week.

Curious. I'm writing this at 20.45 GMT, what time is it there?

 

I know the feeling, but when the public are fatigued is when the leaders should lead.

 

That's not quite true.
I started a new job just weeks before the first lockdown and was not entitled to any furlough payments because I had not been there long enough.
In my industry, I'm a chef, it is quite common for people to change jobs regularly.
I had to settle for Universal Credit payments worth around 20% of my income.

 

Sigh.
Yes, but our leader bet that getting the economy going was the better choice, not understanding that fixing the economy meant fixing the virus.
Our problem now is that half the people will remain unsure about that.

 

Apologies Montegriffo. I was simplifying it for our American friends. I'm really sorry you were one of those who slipped through the gap.
Did you get sorted in any of the future adjustments?
For our American friends the scheme caught about 86% of workers, but

some sadly missed out.

 

What better test is he proposing?

It’s a fool’s errand to continue to use PCR to determine contagious asymptomatic individuals because we aren’t finding enough with this method. The evidence I’ve presented on Rhode Island shows this to be the case. Just saving a few lives isn’t my goal. I’d like to actually use testing strategies that help decrease infection rates substantially, not just slightly or imperceptibly. I’ve shown the data that explains why PCR isn’t good at finding asymptomatic contagious individuals.

We have better options. We need to utilize antigen tests correctly (recognizing their limitations as well) and back them up with PCR. We need to find asymptomatic spreaders while they are contagious, not after. PCR tests alone give us almost zero insight into infectiousness of individuals.

Recently approved antigen tests identify 91% of asymptomatic infected individuals and if antigen is present the individual is likely contagious. With PCR you may find 50% of “infected” asymptomatic individuals but you have no idea if they are contagious, pre contagious, or shedding non viable viral RNA. Granted, there are still issues with false positives and false negatives with antigen tests. No test is perfect. And some of the attempts at using antigen tests have failed because of not being honest about their limitations. But when we are honest about limitations we can work around them. In the past, limitations of PCR were not talked about openly. That leads to the resistance we see now to looking for better strategies.

More people would have died without them initially. Again, PCR technology is a wonder. It’s not great at what we’ve asked of it. I’ve repeatedly said on PF it was better than nothing and I’m glad we had it. But I’m not one to stick with old technology that is demonstrably inadequate when we can do better. My posts on RT-PCR C19 testing is an attempt to get others to desire progress more than anything. I do think it’s important to point out the dangers of politicizing science as was done with PCR testing (it’s been attempted with antigen testing as well) but the most important thing I’m advocating for is progress. If we can’t admit there’s a problem, we can’t remedy it. And it looks to me like few can admit the problems with PCR testing.