Corona Virus Update

It's hard to think about.
Between now and then we will add more cases than we have seen from the beginning.

 

And the last treatment was for coccidisis and the goats lived longer but eventually died. The name of the stuff was CORID. But it ain't all bad. One of the twins survived in good shape and we did get babies from some surviving nannies and got some pretty kids. The herd seems as healthy as possible now. Every goat I will ever get or have born will be vaccinated.

 

Apparently so.

 

If Bolduan was correct and we are seeing an 80% mortality rate, and if Cuomo will need 30,000 ventilators, then NY alone can expect to see 24,000 dead.

 

We need to do something at the national level--now. We need one rule maker who varies the rules to fit the situation in a particular area. We can't afford to let a few yahoo governors undo the great national project.

 

Looks pretty close. At 6 PM ET we are showing just over 245,000. By midnight that should be very close to 251,650.

Tomorrow we should see a total of 308,600 infections in the US by midnight.
278,600 by the afternoon. It depends on the time of the update but that allows for half a day.

At some point the rate of infection may again far exceed the ability to test for it.

 

Math sucks sometimes.

 

I keep wondering how much of the homeless are represented in the statistics. Will we be seeing dead bodies in the streets soon?

 

I played with your formula just a touch and found that if you adjust the formula to 300 * e^0.2032(t), then you get 245,090 for yesterday and 300,313 for today.

I'm sure that the graphical line changes hourly and you obviously can't control for things like testing or asymptomatic, but it may be interesting to watch the numbers play out and see how closely they match (and hopefully significantly underperform) relative to the formula.

 

It wouldn't surprise me if they already exist and we just aren't going to recognize them for what they are until weeks and months later.

 

At some point it will hit an inflection point and reverse concavity. That happens when we are half way through. So yes, what happens is the exponential constant multiplier represents the slope of the line and will start decreasing. When near the end, the 0.2 multiplier may be down to 0.02


e has a value of about 2.72. With an exponent of 0.2t, we see an increase by a factor of 2.72 every five days.

 

I'm adding this to those that have been stating that seasonal flu is worse than Coronavirus: I have been trying to reconcile the stated figures of seasonal flu death with this link for the Uk:

"Three times as many people are dying of flu this winter in the UK compared with last year, with the death toll since October now at 155, figures show."
https://www.theguardian.com/society...-people-dying-from-flu-in-uk-than-last-winter

I did not understand why this low number of flu deaths (155) is so different to other published figures which are in the 1000s. 15000 in this link for the same period:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...est-level-40-years-experts-blame-ineffective/

I noticed that in the US CDC figures are of the order of 10s of thousands of deaths, up to around 70000 from seasonal flu.

Then I found this link from the British Medical Journal:
"So the government are now apparent not only blaming fluctuations in winter mortality on flu but all excess winter mortality on flu, to the the tune of more than 50,000 deaths"
https://www.bmj.com/content/361/bmj.k2795/rr-6

which should be read with this link:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...est-level-40-years-experts-blame-ineffective/


In conclusion: The published high deaths from seasonal flu by governments is to hide the fact that vulnerable people are dying from lack of care and support through winter. The actual deaths from seasonal flu are low. So those government published deaths from flu are false, there have not been tens of thousands of people dying from seasonal flu. A huge majority of those people died from being too cold, hunger or lack of care etc but it is beneficial for governments to blame seasonal flu.

This is why hospitals have not been over run by seasonal flu cases - the number of seasonal flu cases have been made up by the government to hide their shortfalls

 

has anyone seen Melania out since this started?

 

Not sure but this might have a been a recent sighting of her.

 

did it say "I really don't care, do you" on the back side

 

I'm not sure tragedy tells the whole story.

 

was ignored



I agree. Yet in 09 when there were more unemployment than available jobs this is what several cons were saying and pointing out this fact .was ignored. I never forgot it.

Perhaps this time they will temper the ideology? They are good people afterall .

 

Just saw on our local news where 3 in the same family died from this virus. All were grandparents . In Ohio.

You cannot get it unless exposed to it . So stay the hell home! Yet even when many can do that they refuse to do it . No one is welcome at my house in these times.

 

FoxHastings said: ↑
...and US survivors will survive for what? Years of "The Greatest Depression" ?






Here for what? Look up the "Great Depression" and see the "fun".

And there is NO guarantee who will be here if we destroy the economy or not.


I hope you are correct and shutting down and destroying people's livelihoods will not harm survivors .




You may feel that way but you don't get to make that decision for others.

My grandparents and parents "lived" through the Great Depression and I bet if they had a choice to stay dead or go through the next Great Depression , they'd choose staying dead.

Where TF did I say you shouldn't do what you want to do? NO where.


But if you think obeying the experts and following guidelines will put the U.S. back to "normal" ever again , you are mistaken.

 

Coming soon, prison infections.

THAT is going to be ugly.

 

Just wondering why you have to act the way you do. Your replies seem kinda harsh to me. Don't hate me cause I am beautiful.

 

Finally got an update of 257,773, so it seems to be tracking well. It likely did hit 251K around midnight.

 

I just heard that Louisiana is seeing a 5% mortality rate. This is thought to be because of the generally poor health of the people in that area. They rank 49th in public health, in the US.

 

With the current numbers of 10,297 cases and 370 deaths, thats a mortality rate of 3.5% so not sure the 5% came from. However 3.5% is also probably not accurate due to so many not tested or asymptomatic. There are a lot of overweight and obese people there, especially in New Orleans and smoking is still a normal thing, so lots of health problems is causing it too.

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-new...sted-video-about-coughing-rider-dies-n1175886

People are rightly praising medical workers,. But public workers are also putting their lives on the line every day.