A new poll actually shows Gov. Romney ahead in Pennsylvania. And by four percentage points. From the Washington Examiner: Here is the link to the full article on the subject: http://washingtonexaminer.com/poll-...lue-pennsylvania/article/2511153#.UICNlcU8CSo I had concluded (somewhat reluctantly) that Ohio is the key--that the winner of The Buckeye State will very likely win the presidential election. But a Romney win in Pennsylvania could easily obviate the (apparent) need for the former governor of Massachusetts to win Ohio...
Good, now Obama has to divert resources to Pennsylvania and he will have less to spend in Florida and Ohio.
Man you guys are too easy. You must really be desperate to be doing this. I just showed this to be total nonsense in another thread ,same link same poll but lets do it again lol. From the link "Susquehanna Polling and Research provided The Washington Examiner with a poll it conducted for state party officials that shows Romney with a 49 percent to 45 percent lead over President Obama." "Every other Pennsylvania poll shows Obama ahead, though by a narrowing margin. A Quinnipiac University poll taken around the same time as the Susquehanna poll shows Obama leading Romney 50 percent to 46 percent." So the poll was paid for by the republican party which makes it totally invalid and the link shows all the valid polls have Obama ahead.
Well, I am not certain that the conclusion, above, proceeds naturally from the premise. To put it another way: The fact that the firm was "hired by" Republicans does not suggest to me a pro-Republican bias. (Actually, I wish I were privy to the internal polls of each campaign; presumably, both campaigns want to know the real scoop, so I would imagine that both are rather accurate.) On the other hand, some polls (such as the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling) have a definite, unabashed bias...
Not a chance. Even if you average that poll in with all the other polls taken during that same time you have Romney down 3 or 4 points and Obama at or over 49%
The Susquehanna Poll employs a significantly different methodology, as explained above, viz.: So mere "averages" can be somewhat meaningless. (One is reminded of Mark Twain's famous observation: A man who has one foot in a bucket of ice water, and the other foot in a bucket of boiling water, is, "on average, comfortable.") That said, I still believe there is at least a 60 percent chance that President Obama will hold onto The Keystone State. But, prior to the release of this poll, I would have placed that number at 90 percent, or even higher...
PA is to republicans, as Lucy holding the football for Charlie Brown. Every time the GOP thinks they have Pennsylvania in the basket, the football gets pulled away from them.
I cannot argue with this observation. In fact, it is rooted in a rather accurate simile, in my opinion. Still, this recent Susquehanna Poll leads me to believe that it is not a done deal in Pennsylvania...
Here's a suggestion, if you want to be taken serious, leave out the wild rantings and conspiracy theories.
It's not out of the realm of possibility, this election is going to be a close one. I just don't know if PA voters think they got it that bad, to pick Romney over Obama.
Democrats are not being oversampled. Maybe... just maybe... there are more Democrats in the state of PA then Repubs? I dont see you complaining about the NC polls that show a higher sample of Repubs Vs Dems. Or the Texas Polls. The oversampling thing is so silly its ridiculous.
No as the OP said they did their sampling by registration. Many polls today use a 2008 model where they assume that turnout will mirror 2008. The flaw in this thinking is that Obama can catch lightning in a bottle twice. There is no reason to believe that turnout will be anything like ti was in 2008 because 2008 was an anomaly. Its like predicting the weather. It is usually a very good strategy to say that the weather today will be like the weather yesterday. However, when you get an anomaly that doesn't fly. If you got hit by a hurricane on Tuesday it is a bad idea to predict a hurricane on Wednesday.
I would not be at all surprised if there are more registered Democrats than there are registered Republicans in the state of Pennsylvania. (Western Pennsylvania does tend to vote Republican; but the city of Philadelphia, in southeastern Pennsylvania--like most major cities--is strong Democrat territory. And this is easily the largest city in The Keystone State.) What polls in North Carolina and Texas have you seen that oversample Republicans? Frankly, I am quite unaware of any such polls. I will note this: Rasmussen--the poll that left-of-center thinkers love to hate--has Gov. Romney up in The Tar Heel State by six percentage points, 52-46. But I could find nothing as regarding the specific weighting of this poll. I did, however, find this (rather general) comment from the Rasmussen website: Here is the link: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/about_us/methodology But again, nothing any more specific. Do you have anything specific, as regarding some polls either in North Carolina or Texas? (Actually, The Lone Star State is not realistically in play; so that part is academic.)
Out of the blue (and into the RED??), I know but...Historically, California easily falls into the liberal candidate's column under "Wins." I doubt that will change this election, but rather than the rest of the nation writing off California as a solid liberal state, there is more that should be understood. First off, geographically speaking, California is solidly conservative. In fact, almost all of the state outside of Los Angeles County and the Bay Area is conservative. Of course we have some Democratic leaning friends in the mix, but I have to say that virtually all the people I know who voted for Obama in 2008 are center enough and are not voting for Obama in 2012. I live in outlying suburbs away from the liberal epicenters of LA and SF. While my Democratic leaning friends voting for Romney may not make California a Red state, it is apparent that there has been a fundamental shift in the views of Californians. Rather than a 65/35 liberal advantage like normal, I expect there will be a tighter result in the Presidential election, along the lines of 55/45. The bottom line is that Californians live in a state dominated by Liberalism at all levels of state government, often local government, and at times the Federal government. We are living first-hand the nightmare that the fallacies of ongoing liberal policies promise. With 1/12 of the nation's population, we carry over 30% of the nation's welfare case load. Though we have among the highest tax rates in the nation, our performance in many sectors is among the lowest, not the least of which is K-12 education. There is a huge disconnect between our taxes and the results our state government turns out for it's citizens. Here in California, more and more voters are increasingly fed up with the tired policies of welfare, entitlement, and over-regulation. Businesses are literally fleeing the state, and going out the door with them are employees, families, college graduates, and entrepreneurial spirits. And given these realities, our state government's answer led by Governor Jerry Brown is to .... of course....raise taxes. Why do I share this with you? It is because while societies move slowly in small increments in one way or another, the last four years we have moved quite a bit in one direction, and that has been to the left. Due to mismanagement by the Bush administration, it could even be argued that the nation as a whole moved left for those 8 years as well (government spending as an example). Here in California, people are waking up to realities. The realities that taxing the death out of ourselves is not sustainable or responsible; That caving in a little here and little there on God-given rights is starting to limit our freedoms and our opportunities; That expecting the successful few to pay for the struggling many is not working; Finally, that creating a system of entitlement to income, to food, and to technology does not motivate or inspire self sufficiency or even self worth. Instead, these entitlements drag on the economy and prevent economic growth. You can't have a nation achieve economic growth when the individuals in its makeup will not attain personal growth. There are two very clear choices for President of this country. One proposes taxing those who keep their heads above water to feed those who don't. One failed to fulfill promises in the 3 1/2 years he was given to make some meaningful changes. One has no clear objectives to accomplish critical tasks in the next 4 years. One candidate harps on other about character traits and supposed criminal traits that are simply untrue, because he cannot speak about his own positive track record as there is not one to be bragged about. One candidate has chosen to divide America pitting men against women, rich against poor, educated against uneducated, citizen against immigrant, successful against struggling. This candidate's support comes from his promises to help sub-groups and special interests around the nation. The other candidate wants what is best for America, not just for certain sub-sets of Americans who represent critical voting blocs. This other candidate has a very long track record of being successful at the tasks he is assigned. This other candidate has actual leadership experience that he worked tirelessly to achieve and realize. The first candidate wants to shame this success and make this individual's success the poster child of evil and greed. To do so is grasping at straws, and we all ought to know better! Shame on Obama for failing to recognize the need to represent all Americans. Californians are living the Democratic dream right now...high taxes, huge government, layers of red tape protecting the unions and pet projects. And the state is on the verge of collapse. Our unemployment is way above the national average, even the highest in the nation by certain scales. Our education system is collapsing. Businesses can't leave fast enough. Obama, unfortunately, wants to emulate the democratic structure of California, and Californians are beginning to see the writing on the wall. And that will show on election day when the tallied vote shows a much stronger conservative vote in California than has been realized in many years, even decades. I realize and accept you may not give a dam about what Californian's think; but this isn't about just Californians, it is about America. And in the critical battle ground states, it is worth sharing that long time California democrats are even opposed to Barack Obama's re-election. I know this first hand. My dad has been a Democrat his entire life. 90% of the time, he votes for the Democrat, incumbent or not. Last fall, my dad changed his registration to Republican vowing to no longer support the lunacy of Democratic leaders. In his point of view, the Democratic platform has some redeeming values, but the Democratic leaders are too extreme, to blind, and to careless to be leading this country down a road that is difficult to reverse. My brother-in-law voted for Obama in 08, and is also a lifelong Democrat. Though he has not changed his party affiliation, he has made it well known that he will not be voting to re-elect Barack Obama. I was stunned because in 2008, there was nothing better than Barack Obama in his opinion. That faded over 3 1/2 years of division, bad policy, ignoring popular preference, and politically lifting choices at the expense of what is right. And so the story goes for every single individual I know who is a Democrat, even out of California. LA and San Francisco may still have their way with our state's electoral votes, but to my friends in Ohio; the shift is happening. You have no idea how many in California applauded the outcome of Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker's recall election. We here thirst for that kind of revolution. It is getting underway, and no matter what form it takes, there is a brighter future in store due to the failing policies of Obama and the Left. Be a part of it and vote with the rising tide of the aware and informed, where people are witnessing first hand the failure of liberalism; here in California! Vote with Romney! Vote for responsibility, not carelessness and wrecklessness! Vote for national unity, not division. Vote for leadership, not for waffling and puppeteering! VOTE FOR ROMNEY! We're asking for your help! Join your fellow citizens in California who are concerned about the future, who want less manipulation and less dumbing-down in exchange for more freedom and more opportunity. Vote for Mitt Romney. He is the clear choice.
