Covid-19 is here to stay

Looking at total deaths is a valid activity.

However, it can not be assumed that the only change is COVID.

There are differences pretty much across the board based on change in behavior due to COVID.

It can't be assumed that all deaths not attributed directly to COVID are unchanged.

We could be seeing deaths due to other communicable disease, traffic deaths, industrial deaths, etc., etc. decreasing while COVID is making up the difference.

We could be seeing increases in deaths attributed to other causes, where the death included COVID as a factor - which gets to the point of the rules for reporting COVID deaths.


I just do not see a justification for looking at excess deaths as being a better method of counting than the work being done to actually count COVID deaths.

I'm fine with using it as a method of further understanding of what is going on - whether there is another bracket of deaths where COVID was a strong contributing factor, but not recorded as the actual cause, or whether there are other factors that might be important to understand, as a check against our counting rules, etc.

Also, it appears that the lethality of COVID isn't static. That does NOT mean there doesn't continue to be PERMANENT damage to those who contract the disease. And, rate of lethality and other damage is not that well understood at present. In general, watching deaths is not good enough.

But, I do not see a justification for using this as a justification for dismissing the direct counting of people sick with COVID.


Also, there is another factor here. Data such as case counts can be highly accurate in showing change EVEN IF there are errors in how the count is carried out. The reason is that if you hold methodology constant it can still be possible to clearly detect change that is real.

Let's remember that we are not shooting for a specific case count. The objective stated by the CDC has to do with achieving a steady state that is within reason. Excess deaths. Data clearly shows that there is nothing static about COVID today.

 

So we do not have standards on how to count morbidity and mortality of COVID-19.
That is exactly why I am saying that simple seasonal spike in common cold has been blown out of proportion.

 

I know that's what you said.

But there certainly is no evidence of that.

You would just like to discount ALL that data we have and assume there isn't even any problem.

And, we DO have standards for data collection. They just aren't being followed in precisely the same way. As I pointed out before, that doesn't mean the data are worthless. There is plenty enough there to analyze many of the important aspects of this pandemic.


A lot of what is of concern is happening within specific states. There really isn't much variety of methodology within individual states. So, the reporting problem is even further reduced there.



For the USA as a whole, one of the problems is that NY, NJ, CN, MA and some others are doing a fabulous job of keeping COVID under control right now.

And, those states are making the rest of the USA look BETTER than what is actually happening in those other states.

 

There was a problem at the beginning when we have got reports that people were dying in China and then in Europe. So the lockdown was somewhat justified due to lack of data.
But now it is clear that we should stop implementing draconian measures, like forcing people wear mask on the streets, or in the car, curfews, closing parks, beaches etc.
There is absolutely no evidence that those measures have any effect on the spread of common cold.

 

I've never seen anyone whine about so little as wearing a COVID mask to help stop the spread of this disease.

Medical science the world over makes this issue clear.

Those who refuse are just stating that they could not care less about their families or those around them.

 

Because they are useless, and forcing to wear them either just a stupidity or attempt to exert unlimited power.
Mask are working against bacteria, and probably Influenza, masks never stop common cold like COVID-19.
COVID-19 is too small, it penetrates easily through the tissue cells, but instead of dropping on the floor it stays on the mask surface and infect everything around.
Social distancing might help, but not the dirty masks.
Sure if everyone wear 3M full respirator it would different story.

 

Medical science says you are absolutely wrong.

 

The medical community you see in CDC and NIAID is not quite as angelic and uncompromised as you might think.

By 2009 Marcia Angell MD, former editor of JAMA, pointed out that much clinical research published is beyond faulty.

https://www.goodreads.com/author/quotes/3448.Marcia_Angell

Doctors like $ as much as the next guy. They will write and say whatever they are paid to write and say, and that fact was demonstrated in spades with the opioid push by Purdue and Big Pharma.

 

My position has been clear from the start--garbage in = garbage out. Public policy decisions have been made in an atmosphere of fear, anxiety and bad data.

 

You're saying Trump censures the CDC and censures Fauci, and the CDC censures Fauci. Well, that's two strikes against Fauci then, isn't it?

Only fools put absolute faith in science (or anything else), especially when the science is dependent on government (deep state) money.

 

If you think erroneous fabrications of data are a "key source of information," then that's your problem, not mine. The burden of proof is on you, and you have none.

 

You do not have any justification for suggesting that whatever she turned up means that science based medicine on COVID that is coming from ALL the soures around the world can be discounted.

Research in psychiatry and the unbelievable tollerance of homeopathy are not affecting anything related to COVID.

Big Pharma has nothing to offer for COVID - the advice were getting from the numerous medical science institutions is all oriented to methods for which no money changes hands. Nobody is trying to boost mask sales.

Let's face it. You have absolutely nothing to complain about with the directives as described in the White House directive on how to open our economy, which is on whtehouse.gov - or ANYTHING else that medical sicnece has said on this topic.

Furthermore, they have been right. Trump has been wrong - and not just a little bit. He has been wrong i everything he has said on the subject.

And, NOW he is working to prevent us frome hearing from science!!

 

OK, but you have no evience to back your position

And, let's remember that the CDC, NIAID, and the rest have been consistently right and Trump has ALWAY been wrong on COVID.

 

No.

And, I really find it disgusting that you would make statements about me like that.

Posters who can't do more than make up false claims about what others say should be banned from this board. It's far more juenile and harmful to discussion than ad hom.

 

No, I think the claims that our data are so polluted as to be meaningless is absolutely and totally absurd.

There is no evidence of that.

And, your idea that I should prove a negative is noted.

 

You are woefully uninformed about Big Pharma's role in this plandemic.

 

For me, none of this is about Trump. CDC and NIAID and Fauci preceded Trump by decades.

CDC and NIAID have been wrong more often than they've been right. If you do not already know that, you're not paying attention for these last 6 months.

 

More hand waves with nothing behind them. BigPharma now, huh. LOL They are a problem in general, by all you are doing is naming things to fear.

Many of the institutions analyzing data track hospitalizations - besides everything else.

Beds can be counted. And, hospitals can not claim beds they don't have, nor is there any benefit for them doing so.

There are so many different ways to cross check these data that the PATHETIC attempts to discredit science just identify who to NEVER believe.


That includes Trump - and you, too, if you choose to go that route.

 

Yes - they absolutely have been right to within what is possible to know.

You are suggesting that they are wrong ON PURPOSE - not just because there is a learning curve with each new type of pandemic.

In fact, YOU claim they have an AGENDA to be wrong!! Yet you can't support that, either.

 

There is no medical science if it can't explain discrepancy between test results and clinical picture.

 

That's just plain false.

Science has highly sophisticated methods of handling uncertainty - error bars, confidence levels, etc.

There are universities all over the USA studying the numerous types and sources of data that is available, examing discrepencies, examining human behavior (as predictive models depend on what humans do).

You've got nothing but claims.

 

I did not hear any explanations about where those crazy numbers of COVID-19 positives came from.
All objective statistics approximately the same in European Union and United States, the difference is a number of positive cases.
The logical hypothesis are
1. Testing processes are different between EU and US.
2. US test more patients then EU.
3. EU discards false positive results while US does not (to make more money).
4. EU test only symptomatic patients, while US everyone, so even traces of viral RNA (not capable to infect anyone) reported as positive result.
Science does not explain that phenomenon.
So the conclusion is, it is politicians that inflate numbers, or encourage to inflate them.

 

You have to show that this makes a meaningful difference - that it is not being taken care of as part of continuing analysis.

I don't know that that is true, but even if so, this kind of factor can be taken into account in the various analyses being performed. It's only one aspect of data collection.

There is no money in that. And, again it does not preclude valid analysis and comparison.

NONSENSE. In large sections of America those without symptoms can not get tested.

Politicians are not creating these numbers. Politicians (like Trump) repeatedly get called to task for promoting numbers that are TOTALLY of his own making. Not even the president can get away with that kind of crap - unless the people want to believe his nonsense rather than the results of science.

Those who are doing data analysis all across our nation and the world are doing so.

Remember that we have many sources of data.

 

We already four month in this so called "pandemics" and still do not have universal testing standards (accepted worldwide) as well as no standardized diagnostic criteria.
That alone tells me that whole COVID-19 story is 90% politics and may be only 10% science.

 

I never suggested that all the data is polluted, just the chart you relied upon. The one that says the covid death rate is 1% of the US population, which is just absurd. Why not just admit that the chart data was bogus, and then move on to greener pastures?