David Jolly (Republican) wins upset in Florida

Apparently, the Republican candidate in a special election in Florida, David Jolly, has defeated his Democratic opponent, in something of an upset.

Here are the totals, with all 225 precints reporting:

David W. Jolly (REP) 88,294 (48.43%)

Alex Sink (DEM) 84,877 (46.56%)

Lucas Overby (LPF) 8,799 (4.83%)

WRITE-IN 325 (0.18%)

I say that Mr. Jolly "apparently" has won, since there are likely to be lawsuits. Or, even more probably, a "lost" ballot box may suddenly turn up with just enough votes to put the Democratic candidate over the top...

 

How was it an upset? It was a GOP held seat already...

 

More accurately, the seat had been held by the very same man (the late Bill Young) for 42 years, prior to his death last fall. And given the inherent difficulty of defeating an incumbent congressperson, this can hardly be taken as a reflection of pro-GOP sentiments in FL-13.

Moreover, Ms. Sink had a slight lead in the latest pre-election polls. And Larry Sabato (who, ordinarily, is extraordinarily accurate in his predictions) had characterized this race as Leans Democratic.

Also, it is my understanding that FL-13 has been trending Democratic in recent years, as its demographics have changed a bit.

So I would describe it as a minor upset, anyway.

 

A chronically Repub seat remains Repub - for the next 8 months, anyway. A very interesting post mortem of the special election and its implications can be found here.

 

The district was competitive, and Obama carried it twice. Stop trying to downplay the writing on the wall.

 

The corrupting influence of liberalism has been kept at bay in Tampa Bay.

 

She was expected to win after almost winning the Governorship last election, Obama winning the district the last two elections and the Obama and Bill Clinton both campaigning there for her and the Democrats spending 4 times what the Republicans spent.

 

The Dems also put all their chips in spending 4 times what the Rep spent and both Obama and Clinton campaigning there for her, she also almost won the Governorship.

 

How is this possible? Didn't the Dems call him a racist or a sexist? How could they lose using their race baiting?

 

Spending by R's and D's was about equal. Sink herself outspent Jolly, but outside groups made up the difference. Both sides spent about $6.4 million each

http://www.publicintegrity.org/2014/03/11/14411/outside-groups-help-boost-david-jolly-victory

If a +15R district turning into a +2R district is the model Republicans want to follow, we'll encourage that. To all those paying attention to the facts, the moral is "It's the turnout, stupid". The Republican strongholds turned out, the Democratic strongholds did not. It was a failure of the Democratic GOTV effort. Anyone on either side who fails to understand that will need good luck in the future.

 

When a Congressional seat that has been Republican for four decades continues to be Republican, at least for the next 8 months, in a landslide of nearly 2%, you know it's a sign from the gods that Herman Cain will be the next President of the United States of America, and that his national moat will be stocked with alligators from the "Dangling Appendage" State!

Huzzah!

 

Alex Sink is probably the most well known Democrat in the State (at least one who is not already sitting in office). She was the Democrat gubernatorial candidate last time, and the State Democratic Party is desperate to get her in elected office. She even carpet bagged this district in order to run. That may have played a factor too, except Democrats usually like to carpet bagged. Maybe if Charlie Crist's attempt for governor falls flat, she can run for that again.

 

It was a GOP held seat in a 'special' election heavily financed by out-of-state Republican donors. And they think they won.

 

"Of the candidates' share, Jolly’s campaign was dramatically outraised by Sink's — $1.3 million versus $2.7 million — according to a Center for Public Integrity review of Federal Election Commission reports."

She had all the advantage and was expected to win, as Kirsten Powers noted tonight on Special Report this was considered one of the the top open seats for the Democrats and they expected to win it. She was popular and almost won the Governorship, he was a lobbyist. She was a better candidate. Obama won the district in 2008 AND 2009. And yes she had, I have heard 4x as much money as he had since he had to spend so much in a tough primary where the Democrats anointed her.

This is bad news for the Democrats and good news for the Republicans.

 

It was an expected open seat win for the Dems, a key one.

 

You can't reason with the irrational.

- - - Updated - - -

According to whom? Anyway you cut it. Florida lost.

 

That it was a key state for the Democrats?

"Sink, Jolly and their affiliated groups spent more than $12 million in the campaign, making it one of the most expensive House races ever."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...publican-jolly-wins-florida-special-election/

"The Florida special election Tuesday was supposed to be an ideal chance for Democrats to show that 2014 isn’t a lost year. Instead, they were dealt another body blow, further weakening their prospects for this year’s midterms.
Democrats couldn’t have asked for a more golden opportunity.

They had the right candidate matchup: Alex Sink, a respected former statewide official who nearly won the governorship in 2010, up against a former lobbyist, Republican David Jolly. They had the right district: A swing region of Florida that appeared poised to elect a Democrat after more than four decades of GOP representation. And they certainly had the money: In a year of staggering GOP spending, Sink far outraised her opponent and got nearly $4 million in help from outside Democratic groups.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2014/...tion-2014-democrats-104560.html#ixzz2vnTllVbe


You could also listen to Special Report and to top Democrat strategist Kirsten Powers tonight discuss it.

 

Here's some news for you, Florida is a key State period. We are the 4th largest State in the union and will be the 3rd by 2020.

Which is half of what the Jolly forces spent. Anyone who lives in the Tampa Bay area witnessed it first hand. The Republicans weren't running against Sink, they were running against Obama.

 

To describe it as being "chronically Republican" is probably a bit misleading, considering that the former incumbent--Bill Young--had held the seat for the past 42 years.

And, since FL-13 has been trending Democratic in recent years--in fact, Barack Obama carried this district in both 2008 and 2012--it seems like a bit of an upset for the Republican candidate, David Jolly, to take the win.

I would not think it wise to read too much into this single victory--the Democrats did very well in special elections in 2010, only to be thoroughly eviscerated in November of that year--but it does amount to a minor upset, anyway.

 

Obama won the the Florida13th district in both 2008 and 2012.

 

LOLOLOLOL!

 

Well, the Washington Post--which certainly is not a pro-Republican newspaper--has indicated that "[o]utside groups spent $4.2 million opposing Sink, and $3.5 million opposing Jolly; and that the Sink campaign itself spent another $1.6 million, versus $859,000 for Jolly. That amounts to just under $5.06 million spent on the Jolly side, and $5.1 million on the Sink side; which, as you have indicated, is a negligible difference (albeit at a slightly lower level, overall): http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...now-about-todays-special-election-in-florida/

Typically, high turnout favors the Democratic candidates. And turnout is always much lower during the midterms than it is for a presidential election; and much lower, still, in special elections.

 

The Dems ran their best candidate against a nobody, outspent him and even financed a Libertarian to siphon off 5% of the vote (not one would ever vote Democrat) from Jolly...and Jolly still won.

All thanks to ObamaTax.

 

Somehow, even after they get clobbered as bad as they did in 2010 they still won't get it.

Democrats confuse Representative with Nanny. They are elected to "represent" us and what we want. Their constituents could give a rats ass about what THEY think is best for us, they just don't get that.

 

Why? If a proclivity has endured continuously for over four decades, it is hardly an acute symptom. In 2012, the Repub carried the district by over 15%, in Tuesday's special election by less than 2%.

Whether this galoot survives (He'll be an incumbent next time, and Congressional Repubs are accorded 22% approval/72% disapproval) I do expect the GOP to enjoy their last hurrah in November.


After that the demographics guarantee progress.