Congressional Republicans are still bottom-feeding like flounder (18% Approval/ 73% Disapproval) but Democrats are not exactly leaping like dolphin (30% Approval/60% Disapproval.) Yet, the electoral stars align in opposition to the less-loathed party in 2014. Why do I expect the November elections to mark the last hurrah of the Angry White Guys? Again, the continuing demographic shift is obviously more enduring than gerrymandered districts and the relative number of seats at risk in one midterm election, but it is my perspective on politics as the art of the practical that assures progress. As I have tried to instruct the less realistic, pragmatism trumps ideology every time. Democrats cannot again expect to be gifted with the bevy of goofball GOP candidates that saved the Senate in '12 as Turdblossom's Elite have now effectively locked down the Party's looney bin, but their flailing against the tide won't just signal their reluctant acceptance of climatological science; it will be a metaphor for their self-destructive resistance to an ineluctable trend. The basic precept of representative democracy applies: Offer the People what they demand of self-governance. If Boehner and McConnell are allowed to strut their stuff after November's elections, in 2016 they'll be intoning the GOP swan song in anticipation of the public's hook. (See, I worked my way back to that "flounder" analogy.)
The GOP will get the Senate. However Ayote-NH and Kirk-IL will fall in 2016 for sure. If Rubio runs for Prez he can not defend his seat. There are about 6 easy pick ups in 2016 that GOP has to defend. Also it is WH year so they to play that game too. I think you will see the GOP sacrifice a few Senate members in an attempt to keep the Senate (and fail) and get the WH (and fail). That is my humble prediction.
I think the GOP gets the Senate majority in 2014.....and a good chance, they lose it again in 2016. The number of Repubs up and the demographic shifts are just not good for them in '16 and '18. If the GOP Prez Nominee is a wacko or too fumblemouthed...and he's facing Hillary.....Reid could easily become Majority Leader again (Or Schumer if Reid retires). What's going to be fun is the RAPID "hangover" the Right gets after Election Day 2014.....whoopin' and hollarin' about taking the Senate.... then realizing that "that sell-out RINO Mitch McConnell"...is their new Majority Leader. And if the GOP begins to push immigration reform, which I think they will? All the aspirin and ginger ale in the world isn't going to help them.
Turdblossom Rove and Carrot Top Adelson seem to be settling on Jeb Bush as the GOP's 2016 version of a Willard who is willing to endure folks from elsewhere. He's probably going to be the GOP's non-TP old farts' pick. Regardless of the schedule, Republicans will be either slithering, staggering, or stampeding toward the sane centre.
I hadn't looked at 2018. If they get the senate, which they probably will, they will have to try and actually govern.
still way to early to be counting chickens but RCP's map shows exactly zero current GOP Senate seats in either the likely or leans Democratic columns, 6 Democrat and 1 GOP in the toss ups, 1 Dem in the leans GOP, and 2 Dem seats in the likely GOP. Rothenberg has the GOP picking up 4 seats, Charlie Cook has 5 Dem seats as toss up and 3 leaning GOP I think it is a safe bet the GOP will pick seats up , question is how many. Historically in mid terms people who are angry with the administration tend to turn out tend to more than people who are pleased with it. I think a lot will hinge on Obamacares winners and losers. If there are more people po'ed over rising premiums and losing their previous policies than there are obamacare winners the GOP will win the Senate. Considering the recent polling , again going with the RCP average. I think the Dems are screwed but if enough dead people turn out to vote maybe not
