Last night, State Senator Tim Kennedy held NY-26, a solid-D seat, for the Democratic Party by a blowout +37% margin. So, he's been promoted from state Senator to US Representative. https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G24/NY#H26_ In 2022, Brian Higgins won the seat by +27%. So, that's a margin increase of 10 points over the 2022 statistic. The seat was not in play, but the margin increase is a surprise. This is yet another in a long row of special elections since 2022 where the Democrats have drastically outperformed both the polling and the previous election. That is cold, hard fact. As a result of this election, the GOP now has a +1 seat majority in the HOR, the leanest margin since the early 20th century. -Stat
Special elections especially for the House of Representatives all have their unique circumstances. Mostly local issues. Also, voter turnout and who actually votes is usually quite different in a special election than in the general election. Which probably explains the 10-point difference in NY 26. I don’t follow special elections as they’re in my opinion due to the situation in each district which differs from district to district. But you got me curious. I looked up the House special elections. So far there’ve been 4 not counting NY 26 last night. I moved NY 26 from where Ballotpedia still has it, as Ballotpedia hasn’t update their list yet to the results. New York's 3rd Congressional District on February 13, 2024. Republican Santos district which went to the democrat Tom Suozzi. Biden won this district by 8.2 points in 2020. Likely Democratic District. Utah’s 2nd Congressional District on November 21, 2023. Republican Stewart district won by republican Celeste Maloy, Trump won this district by 17.1 points in 2020, Solid Red District Rhode Island's 1st Congressional District on November 7, 2023. Democrat David Cicilline District won by Democrat Gabe Amo. Biden won this district by 29.1 points in 2020, Solid Blue District Virginia's 4th Congressional District on February 21, 2023. Democrat Donald McEachin District won by Democrat Jennifer McClellan. Biden won this district by 36.0 points in 2020. Solid Blue District New York's 26th Congressional District on April 30, 2024. Solid Blue I’d say no surprises. One solid red district, Utah, one likely democratic district, New York 3, three solid Blue districts NY 26, Rhode Island and Virginia. Special elections pending with dates: California's 20th Congressional District on May 21, 2024. Solid Red Ohio's 6th Congressional District on June 11, 2024. Solid Red Colorado's 4th Congressional District on June 25, 2024. Solid Red California Senate on November 5, 2024. Solid Blue Nebraska Senate on November 5, 2024. Solid Red https://ballotpedia.org/Special_elections_to_the_118th_United_States_Congress_(2023-2024) In the generic congressional ballot, the democrats have taken a slight lead. The senate remains basically the same, WV switching from Democratic to Republican with Ohio and Montana still tossups. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/state-of-the-union/2024/generic-congressional-vote Cook still has Arizona and Nevada as tossups and MD as likely Democratic. Although the polls in MD has Hogan up big. Cook’s ratings are a month old. https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings Maryland - https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2024/maryland/hogan-vs-trone Arizona - https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2024/arizona/lake-vs-gallego Nevada - https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/senate/2024/nevada Ohio – https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2024/ohio/brown-vs-moreno Montana - https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2024/montana/sheehy-vs-tester I wouldn’t be one bit surprised if the democrats reclaim the house, but lose the senate.
