Trump has now surged to a 6 point lead in the LA Times/USC daily tracking poll. Anything close to a 6 point national lead will deliver an electoral landslide. But its not over. So, when will Hillary release the video of Trump, Putin, Bill Clinton, and Madonna in bed together sharing racist sexist slurs, snorting coke, and sacrificing virgins?
Right. Well I did not consider third party and independent candidates or non-candidate actors. When you put in those people, it makes the election simply impossible to predict. I respect that opinion, but I have made my prediction and stick with it simply because Clinton is on the defensive with the emails.
Good enough! Considering the other candidates not as major factors but petty distractions then, which states do you see Trump exceeding 50%. My thought are that, though perhaps the map may come close to 2004 (narrow Trump win) or 2012 (Hillary win but close in popular votes) I can't see Trump winning over half the vote outright except in a few western Republican strongholds. Hillary, thanks to 18 years in Arkansas, has enough southern strength to pluck a few of those states and make others competitive-as some have mentioned. Hillary also will exceed 50% in only secure places like DC and...I don't think I can name a state. Third parties have strength on the west coast so clearing 50 in California will be hard. She has few real fans in Vermont. Massachusetts has a solid group of Weld supporters to lower her totals. Hawaii might be her second highest total nationwide but they're thinking this year. Minnesota has gone with the Democrats since 1976 but never by a huge margin and they love independents. Maryland might be her biggest state total. How about this prediction: 45 states taken by plurality, not majority; 3 states disputed.
Since so much changes from day to day, I'm just going to post a daily prediction thru November 7th. If the election were held today, I think Trump would win the popular vote by 2%, and the EC count as well.
I suppose there is a chance Republicans may have to take on girly-man Kane in 2020. Hard to know for sure how an election will turn out.
Prediction as of Nov. 4th (12:38 AM EDT) Hillary will be elected POTUS with a minimum of 272 Electoral Votes. I will update (and elaborate on) my prediction as warranted.
There is no evidence of a Trump "surge" in support anywhere. Hillary is dropping slightly because of the FBI allegations but that has happened before without her losing her lead to Trump. In only a single instance he has beaten her in the NPV polling for a couple of days and he has never held a lead in the EC votes. Overall I just see this as Hillary winning by a smaller rather than a larger margin.
Agreed. The whole "Trump can actually win" narrative is just FALSE HOPE for his supporters. Hillary had such a big lead "structurally", that even though it seems inevitable that the needle will move somewhat: The needle WON'T move enough to actually get Trump elected. It will, most likely, be a lesser margin of victory (than it appeared 10 days ago)--BUT: HILLARY STILL WINS. 272 EV (minimum).
"Think"? Why should what you think as a prediction interest anyone? That is, how do you arrive at your conclusion? Is there any logic or just guessing?
Pssst . . . Hillary's presidential campaign has imploded only days before the election. Grow accustomed to talking about President Donald Trump.
You have a valid point. But then tell us why anyone's prediction should interest anyone? Do you think anyone really knows for sure? Aren't we all just thinking and guessing? My logic is to look at what I "think" the likely spread is based upon daily tracking polls. I don't rely upon once a week snapshot polls because they are too erratic. I then use the median of the spread as my so-called "prediction". The trick, in my opinion, is not to get the prediction right, which is nearly impossible, but to keep it very close to being right. * * * Trump may have topped out a day or so ago, and has declined a bit since then. Accordingly, I "think" the spread for Trump today is about +3% to -3%. So my prediction for today is that the race is even; and that Hillary would win the Electoral College vote. Below is what I mostly base it upon, which I "think" represents a good balance of three daily tracking polls: * * * IBD/TIPP shows the race even: http://www.investors.com/politics/t...new-clinton-scandal-revelations-ibdtipp-poll/ Post/ABC shows Hillary at +3% https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...umps-9-point-edge-on-dealing-with-corruption/ USC/Dornsife shows Trump at +3.5% http://cesrusc.org/election/
I think if you lose this election you should voluntarily give up your best post award. Of course, if you don't really believe you'll win you can always walk away.
Post/ABC is deliberately biased to the left if they're not lying outright. How well did they do with Hillary-Bernie in the primaries. It's the state by state counts that matter and the big electoral vote states that matter most. If Hillary is safe in both New York and California it can take almost 8 states Romney didn't get to match that. If he can somehow take New York or California Hillary needs all the swings plus surprises like Georgia to win. Back in high school I stunned my class by counting the electoral votes and discovering the 15 most populous states could give a candidate the win. Without looking it must be worse now. MSNBC pundits in 2010 predicted the increased number of eligible voters in the Hispanic population would guarantee the Democrats Texas, and therefore every Presidential election starting with this one. This of course forced all the old Texas Republicans to keep themselves alive to this year just to prove them wrong. Is Texas in doubt, because if Hillary takes the trifecta, wins by fraud in Illinois as generally conceded, takes Florida after the recount and Ohio and Pennsylvania by a safe margin (2%) they'll call it a landslide even if the popular vote is a tie.
3 days to go and the good woman is still falling...I still believe in the Bradley Effect and believe the polls are under counting Trump voters by at least 2%. Many of the folk being polled are simply telling the pollsters what they want to hear. Unless something changes, I also see a big majority of the really 'undecided' breaking for Trump as they always seem to go with whoever has momentum on election day. I believe he will win the popular vote by over 4%
As is a known FACT, progressives couldnt care less about Hillary's lying as all is 'acceptable' in accomplishing their NOBLE causes.....otherwise known 'ideological hipocrisy !'
Sorry, but it won't happen like that. And you can quote me. Trump has ZERO chance to win the following 5 states: MI, CO, WI, PA, VA. Anybody who thinks that Trump has a chance in any of those states is sadly misguided.
It will take the rational realistic Republicans who have stubbornly been sitting on the side lines along with the "sane" Independents to rise up against the DC machine to beat the criminals bolstering HRC and the Obama DOJ. !!
Rasmussen is biased to the right by at least 2 points and it is still weighting the GOP at 37% of the electorate which is way over the top. There are no undecided voters left so that isn't going to magically bring it home for Trump either. The EC votes as they stand make his path to victory exceptionally difficult and that includes winning states with large Hispanic voter bases that have had record registration drives because of his hatred and bigotry towards them. NV, CO, FL and AZ could all end up going for Hillary meaning that Trump cannot win. His chances are slim and none of ending up in the Oval office.
Agreed, Rasmussen and Dick Morris were both horribly wrong in their predictions last pres election and became persona non grata at FNC following their disaster predictions!
Yesterday I was concerned that Trump had topped out a couple of days ago, and that the race was back to about even. But today's USC/Dornsife tracking poll shows Trump at his highest level yet; at 48%, and Hillary at 42.6%; a 5.4% lead for Trump. That's outside their margin of error, which indicates Trump (in their opinion) would have a greater than 95% chance of winning the popular vote if the election was held today. http://cesrusc.org/election/ As long as this poll's results remain outside their margin of error, I feel pretty confident of Trump winning the popular vote, and the EC count as well.
Dorsife is showing Trump with 40.2% support of the Hispanic electorate. http://cesrusc.org/election/ That is not anywhere near realistic. Mittless topped out at 27% of Latino support and Trump will be lucky to get into the low teens IMO. Early voting is proving that Hispanics are really coming out way more than expected and higher turnout is never a good sign for any GOP candidate. http://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/04/politics/latinos-voter-turnout-early-voting-2016-election/ http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/05/us/politics/presidential-election.html http://www.politico.com/states/flor...c-poll-is-terrifying-to-gop-nationwide-107067 Dorsife is nowhere even close to reality with their alleged 40% Hispanic support for Trump.
Your Univision poll was conducted from Oct. 26 to Oct. 30. During that time period the USC/Dornsife poll also showed Trump's Hispanic support in the low 30's, as low as 32.1% on Oct. 30. That's only 2.1% off from your Univision poll. A lot has happened over the past week, and none of it's good for Hillary; as shown in almost every demographic listed on USC/Dornsife; including a spike in support from Hispanics towards Trump; a spike from 32.1% to 40%. I try not to get myself lost in the details, like you on the left do. I'd rather look at the broader picture, and the trend; and as of now, that trend is with Trump; with time running out for Hillary.
