Global Impending Economic Doom Thread.

I really do like your ability of technical analysis and economic savvy, I also really appreciate you taking part of this thread here. I'm just a casual economic observer but from where I am at living in the bottom tier of society we all know things are worsening with every year. There's simply no denying it.

At work we heard a report on the news station coming from this administration about unemployment being the lowest it has ever been since 1969, me and all my coworkers just started bursting out in hysterical laughter.

I would say the end of the United States began in 2008, where all we have is a bloated artificial zombie that is left of a nation financially. This zombie of course is in the process of destroying itself now which we're witnessing today.

 

Wall Street's 'fear index' touches highest level since around April as rising rates spook stock market
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/w...et-2018-10-10?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

One of the reasons the stock market has been strong is because there has been no money to be made in bonds.

Keep in mind that the Bond market is much bigger than the Stock Market. The movement of money then has been from low yield bonds into the stock market searching for higher yields - albeit at higher risk.

As yields rise the money will start to move the opposite direction.

 

In the ultimate economic doom scenario, what would collapse first? The bond or stock market?

 

Unemployment numbers simply reflect the rate at which the number of people are leaving the workforce at a moment in time as a ratio of those who's benefits have run out.

As soon as your benefits run out you are no longer included in the unemployment figures. This figure does not reflect the actual number of unemployed workers.

 

The way economic and unemployment data is processed in this nation is reminiscent of a Russian Soviet politburo, that extends to both parties of course.

I sometimes wonder if Donald Trump is our version of Boris Yeltsin or Mikhail Gorbachev before the collapse of the Soviet Union.

 

This is a complicated question. In the bond market you have the yield ( the % the bond pays holders) and the price of the bond. If you want to sell your bond prior to maturity - this is where the bond price comes in.

Say you invest 1 dollar in a 10 year bond yielding 2%. If the 2 yr yield goes up the price of the bond goes down. If you want to sell that bond you will get say 95 cents on the dollar. If the yield goes down the reverse happens and you can sell your bond for more than you paid.

The relationship of the stock market to the bond market is complicated. In general the bond market competes with the stock market for money.

So then .. if bond yields rise quickly this causes a collapse of the price of the bond ( a crash in the price for holders of these bonds) while at the same time rising yields make the bond market more attractive which sucks money out of the stock market.

 

Happy for you to detail crisis theory from non Marxists. Good luck!

 

Since we are not talking about crisis theory - why on earth would I do that. Yet another mindless response - as expected.

 

4.2% GDP, 96% employment signals collapse to a liberal???

 

As soon as your benefits run out you are no longer included in the unemployment figures. .[/QUOTE]

[/QUOTE]Wrong of course. Surveys are taken by BLS to determine unemployment. Has nothing whatsoever to do with benefits

 

Wrong as always of course. Surveys are taken by BLS to determine unemployment. Has nothing whatsoever to do with benefits

 

I'm not a liberal.

 

Assuming you can trust the BLS....

 

It is you who is normally wrong The difference is that when you are wrong you run to the playground to stick head deep in the sandbox of denial.

As it turns out you are correct about the survey.

Then in a fit of disingenuousness - you completely ignore that despite the method of calculation - those who are not looking for work or - in this case homeless and obviously would be missed by a survey - are not counted.

Investopedia https://www.investopedia.com/ask/an...ment-rate-published-monthly.asp#ixzz5TaK8G6RJ

 

James is famous for having nothing better to offer than ad hom and demonization. Don't pay too much attention to that one.

 

I'm a fascist national socialist who believes in syncretism of a mixed economy, concerning capitalism I am a fan of social capitalism, Rhine capitalism, regulatory capitalism, state run capitalism, and welfare capitalism which means making capitalism equal for everybody concerning economic opportunities instead of just one class of people.

Social capitalism is the future, crony capitalism is the past.

 

The United States DOW Jones Industrial Average dropped more than eight hundred points today.

 

Didn't you notice the title of the thread: Global Impending Economic Doom? You don't think that refers to economic crisis and you don't think we need to refer to economic analysis into crisis?

Perhaps you're not adopting an economic analysis at all? Fair play, that would account for your lack of knowledge into crisis theory. Perhaps you'll go for an astrology-based approach? Something akin to "Leo is in Uranus so i agree that the end is nigh"?

 

If I could suggest a question...
What policy should we adopt in the face of the next crash
I mean... there are many policy options that are no longer available...
Ie ...quantitative easing where the fed bails out the economy
Or lower interest rates ... which is also fed based
and since rates are already low, there is not much ammunition left
Or the congress could try to pump the economy by dramatically increasing spending
And that ain’t gonna happen
Or we could rely upon increased regulation that we passed in response to the last crisis
But, oops, we did not change all that much and have reversed many “unneeded and burdensome regulations
Or maybe we could gather an international economic concernsus to address the problem
But oops, our policies have alienated our friends and allies.....

So, what is left to do when the next economic crisis comes?

 

International war or civil war, and more probable both simultaneously.

This country is way beyond political reform, I've come to this realization the last five presidents.

 

Crisis is rare. Even when recessions are severe and manufactured through policy stupidity (e.g. 80s economic problems created by monetarism), the government can often just sit back and rely on automatic fiscal stabilisers. Bad for people, bad for human capital. But it creates opportunities for capitalism in itself (e.g. feeding the gig economy and eliminating labour bargaining power)

 

When you're the world currency reserve where you're facing a national financial default I assure you economic crisis and possibly a global financial crisis as a reaction is very much real.