Global warming and its effects on agriculture

Some of these new tractors linked in with GPS are amazing.

 

How much increase in yield is due to improved hybrids?

 

In the case of corn the increase is a combination of genetics and management. An average of 2.3 bushels per acre per year over the last 30 years.

http://www.agronext.iastate.edu/corn/production/management/harvest/producing.html

Now what is your source and quantification for the claim that "costs per acre keep going up" ??

 

My farm experience is extremely limited. I worked one summer driving truck delivering grain to central ferry on the snake river in order to get some driving experience for a log truck job. I was shocked at the volumn of herbicides and pesticides that went into growing wheat. Made me not want to eat bread ever again.

 

And you have to be trained and certified to use them. They are mostly about perfect application of herbicides and pesticides so you don't miss anything or spray anything twice

 

One of the biggest complaints about them as that you cannot work on them yourself. They are so high-tech, they require that you you have a factory tech come out, no matter what the nature of the repair. Basically you never "own" the machine which gets some farmers' dander up.

 

I'm fortunate to have a wife who loves to garden and can so we mostly eat only what she grows and she uses no pesticides or herbicides.

 

The people selling the new roller crimper technology claim that the safety issue will be its biggest selling point. In other words, the reduction in chemical use.

 

A couple of years ago UC Davis did a study about the impacts on global warming on wine grapes. I believe the study suggested that with just a 1.5 degree increase in average temperature, that the primary varieties of wine grapes could lose up to 50% yields. At that yield loss viticulture would no longer be viable. The study suggested there are other wine grape varieties that can handle higher temps but they are obscure wines that would be very difficult to market to the masses.

In the grand scheme of things many people could care less about this potential, but in the wine producing regions of CA, in which the economy for a millions of people is on the line, it would be disastrous! Since it takes several years after planting of new vines to get productive yields, plus enormous costs, plus little to no income during those times, I suspect the outcomes will be irreversibly and devastatingly horrific!

So I'm thinking global climate change impacts on agriculture will vary greatly from county to county, but once the pockets of economy begin to fall, it will effect everyone across the USA...

 

Real world data indicates a climate sensitivity to CO2 of ~ 1 deg C. Using the A1B CO2 scenario the global average temperature would increase by 1 deg C one hundred years from now. There is plenty of time for adaptation to this increase - it won't happen overnight. Vineyards could move north and/or varieties of grapes could be genetically engineered to withstand any slight temperature increase. The temperature has been rising for the last 100 years and I haven't heard anything about yield losses. This sounds like another one of those computer model scenarios which don't agree with the real world coupled with some assumption of a tipping point somewhere undefined.

Climate variability in the Napa region resulting in a warming trend has actually benefited wine production quantity and quality.

http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v35/n3/p241-254/

 

Sounds like another scary prediction to get people on board

 

Sure...
http://www.noaa.gov/news/for-11th-straight-month-globe-was-record-warm

 

Climategate shows the information is cooked and earth has been warming since the last ice age ended and records have only been kept for a blink of earths eye which all adds up to YÀAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAWN

 

Sure it does.
Come back to me with some peer reviewed studies that show anything of the sorts.

I find it quite hilarious that anyone would still argue against this. 20 years ago? Maybe... Now? You are either paid or a complete idiot.

 

Climategate showed peer reviewed study's that went against the AGW agenda were quickly and quietly destroyed. I find it quite hilarious that people just jump on this bandwagon headed over a cliff, you are a bunch of lemmings

 

The original hockey stick papers (MBH 98 and MBH 99) were peer reviewed and found to be junk science. Peer review by members of the hockey team means nothing.

 

Actually... Nothing about the emails invalidated the studies that have been published the past many many decades.

You think the emails invalidates anything?

[video=youtube;m-AXBbuDxRY]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m-AXBbuDxRY&list[/video]

[video=youtube;7nnVQ2fROOg]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nnVQ2fROOg[/video]

Enjoy... I'll wait for those studies you failed to provide.

 

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=7596

There is NEVER plenty of time to respond because no one knows when the tipping point will come for their local area. We can't predict annual rainfall or average temps in advance. Someone with 100 acres of wine grapes today, all fully producing, will never mow down these vines and replace them with obscure wine varieties. From a business perspective this is about impossible! The money required up front, the time, more difficult markets, lack of income, etc. will be the death for most businesses. The same applies to simply selling the farm and moving to another location!

Average temp increases are happening overnight with each new month being the hottest month on record. Where I live, those of us fortunate to have acreage can only afford it because it was acquired long ago when prices were palatable. The biggest problem in my county is farmers cannot find affordable land. The same applies to a lessor degree in regards to moving to other wine grape growing regions. Sure huge corporations can deal with long-term multi-million$ of debt but the thousands of private and smaller farm businesses cannot.

http://www.winesandvines.com/template.cfm?section=news&content=164654

I can assure you that continuing drought conditions, providing less water for frost control, less water for irrigation, and sustained higher temps which reduces overnight/morning cool fog, which don't allow the grapes to develop flavor, which encourage dehydration and raisining, are not good things...

 

It's science! It's a single report to analyze and monitor. It's a heads-up prediction of what 'might' happen. It's not about getting 'on board' with anything? It's about the business of farming and how things out of our control might begin to effect us...

 

The earth has never experienced any form of "tipping point" due to atmospheric CO2 increases. The atmospheric concentration of CO2 has been as high as ~ 5000 ppm and the earth did not turn into Venus. This is due to the logarthmic dependence of CO2. If the CO2 concentration double the global temperature will increase by the climate sensitivity to CO2. The A1B scenario shows an increase from 400 ppm of today to ~ 800 ppm in 100 years resulting in an increase of ~ 1 deg C. If the concentration doubles again from 800 ppm to 1600 ppm the temperature will increase by ~ 1 deg C. And if the concentration doubles a third time from 1600 to 3200 ppm the temperture will increase again by ~ 1 deg C. There is also the negative feedback associated with increasing cloud formation and increasing temperature which acts to reflect solar radiation.

Your chart shows climate variation and nothing else. This has nothing to do with CO2 increases. The alarmist claim that a tipping point will be reached which will result in the destruction of the world cannot be supported by anything in history. The wine industry will adapt as it always has done. The effects of global warming at ~ 0.1 deg C per decade will be easily adapted to by moving vineyards if necessary. But the overall effect of global warming has been positive thus far with regard to CA wines.

 

It's the precautionary principle based on upper limits of model predictions which have no basis in the historical record. Computer models are based on scientific principles and assumptions of the worst case. It's scare tactics plain and simple.

 

Here comes the sun.

 

Now I see your perspective...you are a climate change denier. If this is the case, then all you can offer is biased dialogue.

Never talked about 'Earth' having a tipping point?
Never talked about CO2 increases?
I'm not an alarmist?
Never talked about the destruction of the world?
Never talked about the wine industry?

In the below information please point out your POSITIVE POINTS;

The shift in global warmth patterns may move premium grape growing regions out of areas currently devoted to that activity and simultaneously cause a shift in current grape variety cultivation. Global warming is not uniform: there is greater warming over land, with greater warming at the higher latitudes, especially in the Northern Hemisphere (IPPC, 2013a). The rising temperatures will continue to stimulate the melting of polar ice and high altitude snow pack which shall not only affect global sea level, but greatly affect oceanic currents, the great creator of global weather and climate patterns (Tate, 2001).

Models of change consistently suggest a reduction of precipitation in sub-tropical land areas and an increase in precipitation in more northerly latitudes and the equator. Additionally, changing weather patterns will bring more pressure upon fresh water supplies as some regions dry further (Hannah et al., 2013). Conversely, a melting Greenland ice sheet will stall the warm Gulf Stream, creating a colder north Atlantic and a cooling of northern European coastlines, offset by a warming of its interior. Rising temperatures worldwide will have extraordinary effect upon agriculture; however, few crops are a susceptible to minor changes in climate than grapes, especially premium wine quality grapes (Furer,, Hannah et al., Feb 2013 and Tate, 2001).

The entire range of grape growing climate zones is about 10° C globally; for some grapes, such as Pinot noir, the range is an even narrower 2 °C (Santisi, 2011). The National Academy of Sciences suggests that the general shift of warmer temperatures poleward will lead to a “huge shake-up in the geographic distribution of wine production (Lallanilla, 2013)” in the next half century (Hannah et al., 2013). The practical and economic would be monumental. Premium wine producing regions would shift poleward. “Many quality wine growing regions now on the margin for secure wine production will become safe and other regions will be able to expand their grape selection (Tate, 2001).” Some areas would cease production all together (Kay, 2006 and Tate, 2001). According to Tate (2001), the consequence of this warming will be the ability of Vitis vinifera to “thrive in more poleward locations than it does today,” with some areas now perfect for a given cultivar ceasing to be so. To combat this warming, another study suggests a rule of thumb may be to move planting regions one Celsius isotherm further poleward for each degree of average temperature increase (Kenny and Shao, 1992). Change, however, would be global.

Region by region, climate change would shift wine production, especially in terms of grape selection. By 2100, it is possible that the United States could lose up to 81% of its premium winegrape acreage (Kay, 2006). In California, warming temperatures and a reduction in fresh water in the next half century may deliver an enormous loss of land suitable for premium grape production, especially in Napa and Santa Barbara Counties where land loss could be near 50% of current acreage (Kirkpatrick, 2011). Another study suggests that these regions would be lost completely finding only the narrow coastal bands and the Sierra Nevada left suitable for production (Kay, 2006).

Where grape production is not lost altogether, more heat-tolerant grapes of lesser quality could be planted (Kirkpatrick, and Santisi, 2011). In western North American vineyard regions located in cooler climates, such as Oregon, Washington and British Columbia, the lift in temperatures could dictate that same shift to warmer grape varieties, as well (Lallanilla, 2013 and White et al., 2006). This could prove to be a boon to those regions׳ wine production. Strangely, some forecasts include new regions׳ suitability, including Yellowstone and even the Yukon (Hannah et al., 2013).

In Europe, the impact of global warming on wine growing regions would be large. The loss of the Gulf Stream would chill Bordeaux and parts of Spain, forcing a replanting toward cooler climate grapes (Furer, 2006). However, other regions would become warmer. Alsace, for example, has been experiencing a shortening of the growing season and a shift of harvest from October to September in the last three decades (Furer, 2006). Burgundy may soon come to “resemble Bordeaux (Furer, 2006).” So troubling is this possibility, even the term, “climat,” as an expression of Burgundian identity, is facing pressure toward redefinition (Whalen, 2010). Even the region׳s planting of Pinot noir may wane as the finicky grape begins to lose viability (Tate, 2001). Spain׳s interior may experience such change in rising temperatures and water availability, that it “may be difficult to survive” at all (Furer, 2006). Tuscany׳s Chianti region is finding grapes ripening far too early forcing a shift in varieties (Wine News, 2006). Vast portions of Europe on the Mediterranean coastline, especially Italy, Greece, and France, may become completely inhospitable to grape production by 2050 (Lallanilla, 2011). Southern England, by contrast, is resembling Champagne and has had several vintages of note (Furer, and Wine News, 2006).

In South America, the change may be felt more in the shortening of the growing season׳s effect on late-ripening Cabernet Sauvignon (Hadarits et al., 2010). A change in the variance in year-to-year quality may force a focus on moving vineyards to higher elevations rather than suggest a variety shift more toward earlier ripening varieties, such as Merlot (Hadarits et al., 2010).

Other global wine regions will be impacted in different ways. Australia may dry and warm significantly. A study by the University of Adelaide concluded that by 2060 South Australia ought to experience an increase in temperatures by 2° C and a decrease in available fresh water by 30% (Ecos, 2013). According to Richard Smart, Australia׳s famed viticulturalist, much of Australia׳s Murray River may become completely untenable for grape production (Furer, 2006). This, coupled with global economic changes, may force even McLaren Vale to shift production and marketing tactics (Ecos, 2013). New Zealand is experiencing “early vital signs of imminent ‘regime shifts’ (Shanmuganathan et al., 2012)”. Some regions may need to shift toward warmer season grapes. South Africa, too, is experiencing shifts in climatic patterns and they, like New Zealand, may need to replant vineyards with varietals that can handle increased temperatures (Confronting Climate Change, 2013). China may yet see the greatest expansion of domestic vineyards as new regions open up to vineyard capability (Lallanilla, 2011).

2.3. The change in grape chemistry and the quality of wine

The shift in climate and the resulting changes to weather patterns and carbon dioxide levels may cause shifts to grape chemistry and the resulting quality of wine. This is already being discerned worldwide. Tate (2001, p. 3) warns, “For wine production … the most miniscule modifications in proportions can produce the most major modifications in flavor.” Since minor shifts in seasonal temperature “can make the difference between a poor, good, or excellent vintage … colder-than normal temperatures lead to incomplete ripening with high acid, low sugar, and unripe flavors (whereas) warmer-than-normal temperatures create overripe fruit with low acid, high sugar, high alcohol and cooked flavors (Santisi, 2011).”

An upward shift in seasonal temperature will dramatically shift the growing season thereby changing the normal pattern of grape development toward an earlier onset of flowering, veraison, and harvest (Keller, 2010). Keller (2010, p. 4) warns, “The timing of veraison may be of particular importance, because earlier veraison implies that the critical ripening period shifts towards the hotter part of the season.” The consequence to grape chemistry is substantial: elevated fruit sugar, lower acid concentrations (especially malic acid), and lower anthocyanins and methoxypyrazine levels. Higher sugar delivers shifts in alcohol, altering flavors and mouthfeel. Lower malic acid, especially in whites that do not undergo malolactic fermentation, may force the addition of tartaric acid to enhance mouthfeel and microbial stability (Keller, 2010). Lower anthocyanins will reduce the “color potential” in red wines. On a positive note, however, because warmer temperatures tend to depress pyrazine accumulation and enhance their degradation, a lift in average growing-season temperatures ought to end with a lower incidence of wines with “veggie, herbaceous notes, (Keller, 2010).”

In an extensive statistical study measuring rising temperatures׳ effect upon Germany׳s winegrape production, particularly in relation to sugar levels and vineyard yields, Schultz (2010) discovered there has been a discernable difference in must sugar content over the past few decades, especially in German white varieties. Another study in Australia found temperature effects upon TA and pH levels was variety-specific: Cabernet Franc and Chardonnay experienced the greatest shifts in both TA and pH, Semillon experienced a wider variance in pH, yet Shiraz showed little change in either measurement (Sadras et al., 2013).

Additionally, it is surmised that a rise in CO2 will change wine quality. According to Schultz (2010), a rise in CO2 coupled to a lift in temperature and a shift in relative humidity may increase biomass, increased sugar (thus alcohol), and a decrease in acid levels all of which will affect grape aroma and flavor. Tate (2001) states, that rising CO2 will cause faster growth and, therefore, higher sugar concentrations and thicker skin development (thus higher tannin levels). Therefore, it is a certainty that a change in climate, no matter how small, will shift grape chemistry for winegrapes currently in place.

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Only a climate change denier would use terms such as 'scare tactics'...

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212977414000222

 

I'm a global warming realist who is convinced by the data that humans have played a part in the global warming which has occurred since the mid 19th century. Realist see through the scare tactics employed by the alarmists who want to shut down the fossil fuel power industries.

What is the source of the text in your post ?? And BTW it is nothing more than speculation (may move, suggest, it is possible, surmised, etc ...) based on models which cannot predict the past history.

 

We can add your very long list of scary predictions to the even longer list of failed predictions of the past