Iran "Kicks It Up A Notch"

We should be talking with Iran..They need nuclear power to drive desalination that in turn produces cheap electricity.. What happened to our super/duper negotiator?

 

Gibbering about existential threats over the past 40 year is the glue for Zionism and keeps the Iranians on the defensive.

 

Iran basically flat out admitted that they're making nuclear material for bombs. Why are you still trying to cover for them with the "nuclear power" excuse when Iran isn't even bothering to pretend anymore?

Oh, and here's the super duper negotiator.

He's letting his sanctions do the talking.

 

Did you seriously not detect my sarcasm?

Of course Iran's commitment to dismantle their nuclear weapons manufacturing hardware was a farce. Only a fool would fail to understand that issue.

A fool like, say, oh, I dunno... a fool like Barack Obama.

 

Please show me where Iran admitted to such a thing? I would cheer it, but that is simply not true.

The sanctions had an undeniable affect on Iran's economy, but that is in the past. The situation has stabilized already and even that report (if read carefully) says the same thing, showing that Iran will have modest growth (or at least no negative growth) in 2020.

While the economy has shrunk because of the earlier negative growth, the trend now shows the economy beginning to move up.

In the meantime, the value of the Iranian currency, which had plummeted badly (by more than 60% last year) has begun to climb back, experiencing a 40% appreciation in recent months. The Iranian stock exchange is showing even record growth.

 

Incidentally, while this notion that the sanctions are somehow bringing Iran to its knees is patently false and a product of wishful thinking, I don't want to pretend that the sanctions have had no effect. Clearly, they have hurt Iran's economy. They have hurt the poor (whose subsidies in Rials are peanuts compared to what they used to represent) and, more generally, those who live on fixed incomes, especially the elderly whose retirement benefits are simply worth much less than before.

For instance, before the US sanctions, government backed retirement pensions paid a retirement income in Iran was worth between $300-$1,000 a month. While the retirement income has increased in Rials (Iranian currency), those benefits are now worth more like $150-$500 a month.

Iran paid a subsidy for poor and lower middle class people worth around $40 a person when those subsidies first started under Ahmadinejad, which amounted to $160 a month for a family of 4 and which was very helpful to them. Those subsidies lost their value already after the depreciation of the Rial following the Obama era sanctions, and have been cut and, following the most recent sanctions under Trump, their value has declined as well. Now the same subsidy has become almost worthless (around $10 for a family of 4).

Indirect subsidies and price controls, however, if anything are now more (not less) valuable. The price of a liter of fuel in Iran is still the same, which was already ridiculously low before the Rial's depreciation and is now even lower (it used to be 25 cents a liter and now it is 10 cents a liter). Price of a loaf of bread in Iran used to be similarly subsidized and used to be around 25 cents and now it is 10 cents. Because of subsidies, a liter of milk cost around 50 cents now it costs less. These subsidies, of course, are having a much greater budgetary impact and, in general, Iran will experience budget problems and a budge deficit because of the sanctions.

 

Iran was in compliance when Trump unilaterally cancelled the agreement.

 

This is not the first time Iran has found spies intent on subversive activities masquerading as inspectors and I wish Iran would have to courage to simply end all these inspections immediately. Unfortunately, Iran's government seems content with simply pulling the credentials of this inspector as opposed to doing what is necessary, as the idea that Iran can catch all those who will be working for foreign intelligence services to undertake various forms of subversive activity (including implanting viruses and other forms of cyber warfare) seems unrealistic to me.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/i...-positive-for-traces-of-explosives-2019-11-07
Iran alleges U.N. inspector tested positive for traces of explosives

 

Absolutely right. I also find it amazing how Iran gets singled out so very much; this is not the 1980's Iran under Regan, with Ayatolloahs threatening to cut off the hands of Americans.

 

Well, if we have learned anything from the Biden/Hunter scandal, our "representatives" who make these deals may very well be bought by the other side.

THE WAGES OF IRANIAN OIL SMUGGLING:

Iran has proved resourceful in the past when it came to finding new ways to smuggle oil, but the Americans now have decades of experience dealing with Iranian ploys and it has become more difficult to come up with new ideas, given that so many of the most effective sanction evasion methods have been neutralized or made much more difficult and expensive to use.​

Much of the advances involve the inability of the tankers to operate with proper insurance, and without properly insured ships, they can't use harbor facilities.

Ghosting, using foreign registered tankers and turning off the locator:
The U.S. recently caught a Chinese tanker in the Indian Ocean using ghosting and, while its AIS was off, changed its ship registration to hide delivery of Iranian oil to a banned customer. Now the Trump-led Americans are threatening to seize Chinese tankers if China does not enforce the terms of the Iranian sanctions.

China/Iran relations took a major turn for the worse when Iran staged a UAV attack on a Saudi oil export facility in September 2019 and unconvincingly tried to make it look like the work of Iran backed Shia rebels in Yemen. This disrupted Saudi oil exports for several weeks and that angered the Chinese. The largest oil importer in the world is China and most of that oil comes from the Persian Gulf. China said nothing publicly but canceled a multi-billion dollar oil and gas field development project it had planned for Iran. Several other forms of Chinese cooperation with Iran were also suspended or cancelled. China moved the oil/gas development investments to Iraq.

Iran's oil exports have dropped from 2.8M BPD to 0.2 BPD. And because of US Oil fracking, this has not spiked prices.

If Iran wants to rejoin the civilized world, they can stop exporting terror and agree to inspections that can verify that they have stopped their Nuclear Weapons and Intercontinental Weapons Delivery programs.

 

I am all in favor of Iran's economy losing its last vestiges of reliance on oil revenues. For that reason, while the process has its painful side effects at first, over the medium to long haul, it is actually not what troubles me with US sanctions. Indeed, while those painful side effects can and have adversely affected the Iranian economy to some extent, their most immediate impact when coupled with the larger sanctions chasing away foreign investment in Iran's oil and gas sector -- apart from hurting the poor and those on fixed incomes in Iran -- has been to dry up one of the most significant sources of corruption in Iran. And that source of corruption was not only hurtful to the proper allocation of resources in Iran, not just hurtful to teaching the right ethos (such as honesty, hard work, reward for actual productive activity), but also an important element in compromising the independence of many Iranian government officials. Officials who, along with the bureaucracy they promoted and created within key Iranian institutions, often witting or unwitting served foreign interests in light of their corrupt links. I don't want to open up the issue too much, but in Iran, we had a large number of people who made and were interested in making huge deals with various multinational oil and gas (and other) companies. Those in the private sector naturally have their own interests to make sure the political circumstances in the country would not upset their economic activity. And that is fine: that is part of the legitimate balance of interests in making public policy. But there were also a large class of people who earn their nominal salaries from the government, but who had corrupt financial links in trying to make sure these deals were made. Those corrupt, personal, financial links in turn made them less public servants honestly trying to calculate the pros-cons of various public policies based on the public good and more like lobbyists working to make sure that European (or some other foreign) demands and interests communicated as conditions to allow the deals being negotiated would materialize. Which is what made Iran's government compromised and a far cry from being one that was working towards the public good in Iran.

This corruption works as a major tool in trying to weaken Iran from within and anything that helps rid Iran of this corruption, will prove to Iran's benefit in the long run. But once that corruption is indeed removed from Iranian politics, you will not find the result at all comforting to your vision of the policies Iran should pursue when it comes to its national defense (including its missile program) or its nuclear program. Major elements within Iran's government have corrupt motives that, when combined with legitimate fears of the consequences of certain policies fanned by American rhetoric and European warnings, has made Iran a lot more cautious as it relates to what it is both capable of doing and what it should be doing to preserve its independence and ability to chart its own path.

In the meantime, Iran has its own civilization as great as any that has emerged in human history. You can paint it however you like, sometimes by pointing to its legitimate flaws and warts and sometimes through the blatant lies employed to fan anti-Iranian attitudes and policies. Regardless, while there are several purely domestic obstacles (mostly whenever contrary to the actual epistemological lessons of even Iran's Shia Jaffari Usuli jurisprudence, Iranian clerics or official promote dogma as opposed to the search for finding the truth or essence in things) to Iran having a paved road ahead of its journey to have its own profound civilization, culture, economic and political system, I am confident that this nation that has always found a way to chart its own successful path to civilization and progress will do so again.

p.s.
But for a brief period in history, from the 19th century until recently, even Iran's enemies who came to Iran in 2,500 years of Iranian history as a distinct civilization taking the best from elsewhere and adding to it from its own heritage, found Iran a compelling land of a compelling culture. Be it the ancient Greeks who visited Iran, starting with Herodotus, to the ancient Romans and later Hellenic Byzantine residents and visitors to Iran, to the Arabs, Mongols, Turks, to European visitors who began seeing Iran again, up to the 19th century -- all of them who left a written record of what they observed, will have told you that they observed a very rich culture and civilization. Now, to be sure, the description of Iran that you will find from a source such as Chardin's Travels in Persia 1673-1677 will be a lot more complementary than the descriptions of Iran during its nadir in the 19th and 20th century in various European travelogues. But even at its worse, and in its nadir, the father of so-called (pseudo) scientific racism, Comte de Gobineau, couldn't help find a lot that he admired in the Persian spirit and what he observed in Iran. So much so that Iran itself became an inspiration for his rather fantastic, historically greatly misinformed, and scientifically misconceived ideology of so-called Aryan supremacy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_de_Gobineau

I strongly prefer an independent Iran in peaceful coexistence with the US-dominated world around it, in trade, commerce and exchange of visitors and ideas with it. But if that is not what Americans want, and if that is not what vested political interests are going to allow, the last thing I want is to see the light which still shines within Iran's culture and civilization extinguished by those who like to carry the banner of civilization but are ultimately the true barbarians and the true Mongols of our age. And so should you, because if you really understood Iran, and how it has influenced the ideas which you claim as you own (whether in your religious and ideological heritage, in your linguistic heritage, in your scientific heritage, and more) you wouldn't want this light extinguished either.

 

I want the same.

 

Then stopping making demands on Iran that you wouldn't accept if someone made against the US.

 

If Iran wants to rejoin the community of nations they need to stop exporting terror and agree to verifiable compliance that they have dismantled their nuclear weapons programs and ballistic missile programs.

 

@Jacob E Mack

I have a particular underlying philosophy which I am not dogmatic about, but which has colored by view on various issues. I like to see that philosophy engaged, critiqued, and discussed before I complete a project (a book) I have been working on relating to Iran. I would appreciate you input on it and please feel free to critique and question any part that you feel doesn't sound right or appears misguided. That philosophy was summarized in a message I posted elsewhere and I will quote it here. I hope this is not a great imposition and my thanks in advance for taking the time to consider these thoughts.

Anyone else who likes to chime in, please feel free to do so.

 

It doesn't matter. We dishonored the agreement, so they are released from their end of the deal.

 

Iran has 85 million people with different perspectives on these issues. My own is as follows:

1- Iran's nuclear program is non-negotiable. Not unless there is verifiable global nuclear disarmament.
2- Iran's ballistic missile program is non-negotiable. Period.
3- Any inspections of anything in Iran will be conducted only if Iran wants to allow the world to 'verify' something that it finds to be in its interests to be verified. And no such inspections can be conducted in a manner that infringes on Iranian sovereignty.
4- The world 'terror' has lost its meaning and a better term needs to be used to avoid fruitless semantic discussions. Iranian support for groups that have legitimacy within their own community and state within which they operate is non-negotiable. If Iran is supporting a group which the legitimate representatives in a political entity (e.g., a state) with legitimate jurisdiction over them, is opposed to, then Iran should agree to withdraw such support commensurate with reciprocal actions by those demanding this from Iran.
5- Iran will always be open to peaceful, trade and commerce with any state or collection of states in the world, but if the price of such trade is to compromise its sovereignty through capitulation and uneven deals, then no thanks.
6- Iran is open to negotiation with any party, of any persuasion or belief, including for me both the US and even Israel), as long as the negotiation or discussion proceed on an 'arms length' basis without those negotiating with Iran seeing themselves in a superior position to dictate any demand which doesn't appear one that can find favor in Iran without the threat of force or the threat of other punitive measures. Until those conditions are met, Iran doesn't need to negotiate with a party who wants to communicate threats against it.

 

Thanks! I will read and review it.

 

No kidding? It has meaning in the civilized world.

Well, if the civilized world doesn't want to do business with them, then they won't.

 

Iran has its inherent issues, but the civilized world or at least portions of it will continue to do business with it. Iran is a civilized country itself; not without terrorist elements, but civilized.

 

Iran can sustain their own population with food, electricity and what they need. They are a country that doesnt buckle for money. I guess thats hard to understand for an american.

This lack of understanding shows why your sanctions dont work. Infact you reach the oppossite what you want. Iran now is back 100% going nuclear. Iran shows zero interest to talk with USA.

And thats the world we live in. In 2019 USA doesnt have the power anymore to dictate to others.

 

Europe, China and Russia do want make business with Iran.

 

Dont speak for others.

USA is not the world nor the community of nations.

 

If Germany wants to do business with Iran rather than the US, you're free to do so!

 

And Trump signs waivers for you to do so.

Trump renews sanctions waivers to allow Russia, China and Europe to continue nuclear work in Iran