Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey Keep in mind this is seasonally adjusted data Count of the employed: January 2012 - 141637 July 2012 - 142220 583k jobs added Headline 'Jobs Added" Numbers: July 163k June 80k May 69k April 115k March 120k February 227k January 243k 1,017k headline added So, they are either highly incompetent, or lying.
I'm sorry January should not be included. Headline jobs added should be 774K Overestimation of about 30-40%
On yearly scale (aug 2011-July 2012) Headline jobs added monthly: 103 80 120 200 243 227 120 115 69 80 163 Total Headline Jobs added 1.52M Aug 2011 139754 Jul 2012 142220 Count of Employed +2.47M An underestimation of 1M. I'm leaning towards incompetence.
in a nutshell these reports are pretty much voodoo numbers. Super complicated calculations go into them and even then it is educated guess.
What the heck is going on with their data? Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey Seasonal adjustment of the Employed June: 142415 July: 142220 (- 195K) But jobs added went up?? Huh?
oooh so you think that if you add jobs, the number of employed should increase by the exact same amount? because nobody switches jobs? nobody retires? nobody quits?
No man....the headlines of "jobs added" dont even closely resemble the count of jobs counted in a year. Basically we have "jobs added" as a headline number of 1.5M over the course of a year, but actually 2.5M more people are working! They ain't doin sumtin right. Now, as we get closer to election, suddenly the "headlines" are overestimating.
Another oddity - ADP private payrolls matched BLS jobs added. 163k Any time thats ever happened before?
Part time job growth outpacing full time Seasonally adjusted data: Full time workers March 2012 115,290K July 2012 114,345K Net: -945K Part time workers March 2012 26,912K July 2012 27,925K Net: +1,013K
Or someone is just uninformed about what they do. BLS has always conducted two separate surveys going back decades. They measure different things and thus you get different results. This is nothing new. Just the results of a household survey, on the one hand, and a business survey, on the other.
I know why they are different. ...however, they mean the BLS numbers are useless month to month, week to week. This July had to highest birth/death rate and seasonal adjustment for July, EVER. Why?
In addition to their regular report, the BLS published benchmark revisions to their employment estimates derived from an actual payroll count for March 2009. As a result, job losses from April 2008 through March 2009 were revised up a whopping 930,000, or 23% from their earlier revisions. In addition, the BLS revised their job loss estimates for 2009 up 617,000, or 14.8%. Read more: http://articles.businessinsider.com...1_job-losses-trimtabs-jobs-data#ixzz22VaiDZsT They are off from original estimates, consistently in the 1M per year range. This month, they report conflicting stories. Its not helpful.
June to July labor force numbers: 2002 -2,000 2003 -316,000 2004 +382,000 2005 +312,000 2006 -151,000 2007 -158,000 2008 -208,000 2009 -112,000 2010 +2,000 2011 +65,000 2012 -195,000 <- largest labor force loss since 2008
