Some quick findings (254 counties in Texas): 1. Of counties with a median age greater than 40, Biden took just one 2. Of counties with a population greater than 1-million, Biden took them all 3. Of counties with a poverty rate lesser than 10%, Biden took just one Below is an image and an animation showing margins of victory by county. If anyone would like my Excel data, message me. It is sourced from the Census Bureau and the state election board.
@Sleep Monster I wanted to make these for us here at PF because the reasons why Biden lost are predictable. I predict that we'll see low turnout amoung those < 40yo. If I am correct, then it hurt Biden in East Texas where the margins were low. North Texas was solid for Trump and Biden received his greatest support in the South, far-West, and East, and lost the state by 5-6pts, I think. Slim. I expect the south and east to get massive campaigning attention in 2022 and beyond.
If things progress as they have in recent elections Texas, N. Carolina , Georgia and Florida will probably turn blue.
Hispanic vote would be interesting to analyze. From what I know, they sway the vote between parties less in Texas than elsewhere. If they reliably voted one way, Texas would be much closer and it would come from the south.
Just goes to show us, we can't place all of an ethnicity into one ideological group, no more than we can with white Americans.
That is far from what is happening. Where is your evidence to support such claims? In Florida alone Republicans added over 200,000 newly registered members reducing the Democrats lead from about 350,000 to about 100,000 registered members. Democrats saw low turnout there in the most Democratic county Miami-Dade and Cuban Hispanics overwhelmingly supported Trump. So how is this state going solidly blue? In the Senate races in Georgia the Republicans had more votes then Democrats (presidential election is contested) and Trump won the other two states easily with a big lead in Texas.
Well in Texas, we have long pendulum swings. It was a one-party state since the 1870s until the 1990s, when conservative Democrats shifted away from the party. They largely followed from the election of Reagan and the conservative wave of the 80s, which showed itself during the 60s and 70s when presidential Republicanism became prominent (Texans voted for a Rep. exec in national contests but Dems. in statewide ones out of diffuse favoritism for Republican policy). Even before that, in the 50s, Texas Governor Allan Shivers and the "Shivercrats" began to question the Democratic ideology as being too liberal, and this is when Democrats in Texas began losing their dominance. I think we may have an example of history repeating itself to some degree: The contemporary issue salience of healthcare general welfare of the public is high. We see Republican voices largely unified in Texas, but not everywhere. There is significant Democratic momentum in the certain regions, as demonstrated in the data, and if they can play to it well by offering aid to the young and impoverished (with their support, Biden outperformed Trump), then maybe the hypothesized national trend makes it's way to Texas; maybe people will show a diffuse support for Democratic policy until even Abbot can't hold on in the state.
@Matthewthf @Sleep Monster @LoneStarGal @SiNNiK More findings: https://i.imgur.com/GlKVdSx.mp4 Biden does not win a county until Hispanic population reaches > 24%, and Trump gobbled up the most of the state as a result. Between 24-48%, Biden took just 6 counties while Trump continued winning in C and N Texas. At 48-72%, Biden won just one more county, while again Trump won several more in the N and W. Above 72%, Biden won 12 counties to Trump's 13 all in the SW. Basically, Hispanic population proportion makes TX exponentially competitive. At lower levels, the effect is minimal; at higher levels, the effect is very impactful. **NOTE: I am merely looking at variables and their values. There are more explanatory variables than race/ethn (ie party ID, gender, egalitarianism, etc.)
More: Biden did not win a county in Texas that had a men:women greater than 1.20 : 1. Every county Biden won was on the low end there, meaning higher proportions of females. Interestingly, Trump carried the 4 NE counties with the lowest overall M:F numbers in the state. Conclusion: the counties where Biden won were all between .91 - 1.20 (between 90-120 females per 100 males). Every other county went red.
You guys think everything is turning blue. What would be shocking is to see you list ones turning red but there aren't any are there?
If the population density maps and the political voting maps are compared, they are almost identical. This has been the case for a number of elections. The problem the Republicans have is that the population is going to get more dense as time goes on, so theoretically the country as a whole will vote more for the Democrats. My guess for this is that people who grow up in more populated areas have more exposure to diversity and change, so they don't reject them. The Republicans have been demonizing diversity and change, hence the gradual movement towards Democrats as the population density increases. More rural areas tend to want to keep things the same and resist change. Think about the slogan "Make America Great Again", and what it actually means. I predict this will lead to a change in Republicans policies to better address these factors. Slooooooooow change, I might add. No judgement here, just straight up observation and hypothesis.
