People Talking Russian Sanctions Now Aren't Optimally Considering Ukrainians Lives!

People advocating for sanctions against Vladimir Putin and Russia over President Vladimir Putin's recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine as separate states are not advocating wisdom. It is not prudent what they are talking about even if it is the lower range sanctions like freezing the assets and denying travel visas for Russian Oligarchs and their families. For every increment of sanctions the West would impose on Russia it would correspondingly be decreasing the deterrent on Russia for invading Ukraine because it is taking away that negative consequence toward Russia for such military attack, the negative consequence has already happened. People have to keep in the forefront of their mind the meaning of a "mass" invasion by the Russian army in Ukraine, people aren't considering how bloody this attack will be the harm will be much more than Russian mechanized units driving around Ukrainian cities.

Everyone has to keep in mind the history of Vladimir Putin and Russian Generals. Overall, Russian Generals do not have the moral character that one would expect for good Generals in the area of avoiding fatalities and casualties of civilians. In Syria around 2015 when the Russian air force was helping the dictator Bashar Assad fight the Syrian rebels Russian pilots often used unguided bombs, that is no laser guided systems on the bomb to direct where they landed. A lot of Syrian civilians were killed and wounded because of this manner of fighting by the Russians, some key people seeing this actually believed Russia's intent was to terrorize the affected civilian population to break their will to fight. In the battle of Debaltseve the second major battle in this Ukrainian Separatist war the Russian artillery commander deliberately bombed buses and cars with Ukrainian civilians in them to clog the only major exit road from the city to obstruct the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Army from the city.

Make no bones about it the stakes in a major Russian military invasion of Ukraine is that at minimum thousands of Ukrainian civilians and thousands of Ukrainian soldiers will die this is what this 150,000 strong Russian invasion force will bring upon Ukraine if they invade, it is not theoretical here it is the way the Russians fight it is the foreseeable effect! Authorities should not risk lessening the deterrent against this invasion in the least by front loading the sanctions this type of talk is foolishness! Otherwise, authorities aren't doing their best to not see the loss of Ukrainian citizens lives in this Russian conflict.

 

I doubt Russia ever intended to launch a full invasion since that isn't the best way for them to achieve their aims. Their long-term method has been to chip away at Ukrainian influence and take the country by inches. Recognising the "independence" of the break-away states is just another step in that process. If other nations never take any significant steps just because Russia hasn't launched any formal invasion, they will be free to continue this process.

I don't believe Russia generals are significantly different from generals anywhere else (and notably not different from Ukrainian ones). The main influence on civilian casualties or other horrors of war is public and political perception. Generals will do whatever they consider necessary to achieve the military aims they've been given. Politicians will restrict their methods if (and only if) those methods will look bad for those politicians.