There are a couple that show a small corner of AL (a few square miles at most) in the 5-day cone. I believe August 30 5pm to August 30 5 am.
It doesn't show the path of a hurricane. It shows the time of potential arrival of tropical storm force winds. The wind speeds in the purple area are 39+ MPH. The colors don't indicate wind speed. They indicate the probability of 39 MPH+ winds at a certain time. It indicates 100% chance. This is not a hurricane path map. The hurricane path map has the 3-day and 5-day cones on it. This one doesn't do that. I can't get to the NHC site now for the Dorian graphics. I will show that to you tomorrow.
No, he predicted, based on the models and maps released up until the 1st, that FOUR states would be hit harder than originally thought. Had Dorian done what Erin did, and what Dorian was on track for at the time, he was 100% correct. But sure, now that we know where it went, let's complain about it in hindsight.
Oh I see. And what was causing those tropical storm force winds that were in the same location as the hurricane. What does it say in the bottom left hand section of that map. Oh. It says "Hurricane Dorian".
But at the top in RED it says "tropical storm force winds," so it is a map of tropical storm force winds. Here is every single map from NOAA and NHC that is labeled at the top, "hurricane force winds" and not one single one shows Alabama being hit, Alabama is ALWAYS in the ZERO probability range. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/DORIAN_graphics.php?product=wind_probs_64_F120
The point of this particular thread is Trump made an obvious alteration to an old map to back himself up... Can't be denied.. Was trump right on 9/1 that Alabama was in the path?? Well, no to that as well, but at least that's a debate.. the hand modified map isn't... LOSING?? Nope... LOST!
It's a map of the tropical storm forced winds produced by the hurricane. Honestly, this entire line of "reasoning" is hilariously pedantic. This is a map of Hurricane Dorian winds, caused by Dorian, and labeled as Dorian. And no, Alabama was never in the zero probability range, as reported by CNN and shown in the models.
Correct. 39mph + winds. No upper limit was given. All winds caused by the hurricane the map was labeled as: Hurricane Dorian.
Then post the map of HURRICANE force winds reaching Alabama. You won't because you can't because there is NONE.
But the upper limit can be shown by additional advisory maps, and they show NO HURRICANE force winds reaching Alabama, therefore the upper limit is 73mph. And only a 5% chance of winds between 58 and 73mph.
It's the same map. The map shows 39mph PLUS wind speeds. How many times do I need to explain that the purple shaded area was not limited to 39mph? Womp womp.
No it is NOT the same map, there are a separate set of HURRICANE force wind advisory maps and not a single one shows Alabama being hit, zilch, zero, nada! And here is every one of them, now tell us the number of the map that shows anything higher than a 0 (ZERO) chance of Alabama bring hit by HURRICANE force winds. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/DORIAN_graphics.php?product=wind_probs_64_F120
No, there's a map that shows winds in excess of 39 mph produced by the path of hurricane Dorian, labeled "Hurricane Dorian", had a 5-20% chance of affecting AL. This, of course, does not include storm surges, flooding, and other possible effects AL could have suffered.
On the first of Sept AL had a ZERO chance of being hit with HURRICANE force winds, and the very tip of Virginia beach had a 5% chance of being hit by HURRICANE force winds.
But there is NO map that shows winds in excess of 73 mph hitting AL and you need 74mph or above winds for HURRICANE force winds.