Governor Mitt Romney's campaign has expanded aggressively into what has been traditional Democratic Party turf, creating a stir and a massive defense move by the Romney camp. Romney has taken aim at Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin with a huge ad campaign which is a sign of one of two possible things: either he has lost Ohio and knows it and s trying to garner electoral votes in these "long shot" areas, or they feel so confident about Ohio they are spending while they can to improve the margin of victory. The first scenario makes no sense if the latest poll numbers are any indication as they show the former governor with momentum in Ohio. here's the story "Strange days have found us"
Another possibility: Romney campaign realizes that Ohio has been saturated and any further effort there is wasted. With the success of walker in Wisconsin, I'd see it as quite ripe for the plucking.
It's worth pointing out that over the last couple of days the local media (TV News and Newspapers) in Ohio have blasted Romney for false TV and radio ads in the state. Both GM and Chrysler have made official statements that the ads are completely false. That could be devastating to the Romney campaign in Ohio.
Obama has edged ahead in Florida. NC is the only swing state left in the Romney column, hence Romney's Hail Mary passes.
I think this is a side effect of both campaigns being awash in cash. At this stage, they've got nothing better to do with the money than to see if it can make a difference in some "lean" states. If it works, great; if it doesn't, no big deal. And meanwhile they can pretend that those states are in play. It's sort of what is happening here in Minnesota. A poll claims Minnesota could become a toss-up, and suddenly Bill Clinton shows up. But.... there is basically zero chance of Minnesota going for Romney. The polling history confirms that, and living here confirms that. The two places Clinton appeared -- Minneapolis and Duluth -- also happen to be the TV market for western Wisconsin. So his appearance here served three purposes: 1. Rallying the local troops; 2. Influencing Wisconsin; 3. Maybe suckering Romney into wasting money in Minnesota. I fully expect Romney to take Florida and NC. I fully expect Obama to take Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Iowa. Everything still comes down to Ohio. And Romney is tripping over himself down there by lying about the auto bailout and Chrysler. The blowback from that ad may have cost him Ohio. That leaves him very few paths to victory. I think the likelihood of a split vote -- Romney winning the popular, Obama taking the electoral college -- is increasing.
Actually the national polls are starting to trickle back towards Obama's side now. Today's natural polls average out to a slight Obama lead. I think Obama's going to win them both.
The changes in both directions are slight enough that it's hard to distinguish from statistical noise. I'm not going to bet any money on the popular vote outcome.
The changes in both directions are slight enough that it's hard to distinguish from statistical noise. I'm not going to bet any money on the popular vote outcome.
Even good deeds are hated by these leftist whiners. They are small people. The America I love is better than this crap. http://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiep...dy_needs_your_hurricane_donations_mitt_romney
This is really going to have strong reverberations especially in the Senate. Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania both have externally tight senate races going on. If republicans begin to believe that it is possible to win those states in the presidential election then win or lose the added turnout could easily swing those senate races to the republican.
Oh look, someone is upset that even our nutty conservative national media was appalled at how Romney chose to stage a phony relief rally. That final bit of Romney sleaze clinched Ohio for Obama. That's not the only reason they're crying. Look at the poll aggregators, 10/31/2012. All 10 on my list show Obama as winning. That's the outcome you get if you don't cherrypick polls. RCP O281-R257 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ctions_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html Pollster.com O253-R206 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/news/pollster/ Five-thirty-eight.com (Nate Silver) O299-R239 http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ Princeton Election consortium O318-R220 http://election.princeton.edu/ Election Analytics O291.6-R246.4 http://electionanalytics.cs.illinois.edu/election12/index.html InTrade O294-R244 http://electoralmap.net/2012/intrade.php BetFair O305-235 http://betting.betfair.com/politics...n-days-to-go-where-do-we-stand-301012-65.html Electoral Vote O280-R206 http://electoral-vote.com/ 270 to Win O275-R263 http://www.270towin.com/americas-electoral-map/ Votamatic O332-R206 http://votamatic.org/
The Dems are cracking up. Their hate is spilling over. http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Govern...Accosted-and-Blocked-From-Leaving-Brown-Event
Wow some really (*)(*)(*)(*)ty statistics there. Have any of these people ever taken a stats class. News flash!!! Odds are multiplicative. Obama has to defend Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, Michigan if he loses any two of these he loses the election. Now lets say that his odds of winning each state is 60% now that is generous. That meas the odds of him winning 6 of the 8 is 8 choose 6 at 3/5ths probability. (3/5)^3 X (2/5)^2 = (3^3/5^3) X (2^2/5^2) = (27/125) X (4/25) = (27 X 4)/(125 X 5) = 108/625 = 17.3% now that is low because elections swing in mass and aren't really individual contests but still saying that he has an 80% chance is statistically absurd. He is on the defensive in too many states.
I see Bill Clinton is going to Minnesota and North Dakota. This is looking more and more like a death watch.
Two points. First: In the 2001 election at almost the same moment Bush made a heavy move into Michigan even send the VP candidate there. This caused Gore to spend money and time in Michigan Pulling him away from Ohio. Second: Polls have never been this close so late in Michigan and Wisconsin since I have been alive. Romney thinks he has a shot at all of them if not a good one and he thinks Ohio is already leaning his way. If I had to put money on which one I think is what Romney is doing I would go with he thinks he has a real shot at them and think Ohio is in play.
It's funny, how the righties are all so insulated in their little FOX News reality-exclusion bubble. And how awful they are at statistics. I wonder how they'll take the loss. Probably by going into complete denial and declaring the dirty Democrats had to have cheated. Back in the real world, President Obama has edged ahead in Florida, causing Romney to retreat in panic to Florida to play defense, since Romney loses it all if he loses Florida. Colorado and Virginia are leaning Obama. MI and PA are solid blue, despite Romney's hail mary passes. So are Nevada and Wisconsin. Ohio is strongly in the Obama camp. The only swing state still in the Romney column is NC, and that just barely. And all the momentum is with President Obama. He's been pulling ahead slowly but steadily for 2 weeks, and that shows no sign of abating, especially given how popular his storm response was. I'll update the poll aggregaters again tomorrow. Given how good the polls were for Obama today, count on some major movement in his favor. Even RCP is unable to pretend Romney leads any more, as they've got the national vote back to a dead heat.
LOL, all of these polls are weighted with 8% more Democrats showing up than Republicans like it was in 2008. What is funny as hell is they completely disregarded 2010 voting and 2004 and 2000. The only polls that should even be considered what so ever should be polls based on an average of those 4 elections. When you look at those polls it is very telling as to why the Libs are cracking up. I wonder if there will be suicides?
The polls show more Dems than Republicans not because there are more Dems than in 2008, but because so many former Republicans have shifted their identity to "independent" -- either because they're Tea Partiers or because they're moderates who left because of the sharp right turn the GOP has taken. Get over the "oversampling" argument. It's bogus.
I think Chris Christie just drove the last nail into Romney's coffin, and Florida and N. Carolina are not immune to the same kind of natural disaster. Romney's best use of his Wisc/Mich advertising money would have been to send it all to the east coast.
Reality check time again, the poll aggregator and gambling house report for 11/1/2012. Due to a strong polling day yesterday, President Obama made some decent gains. RCP O290-R248 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ctions_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html Pollster.com O277-R206 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/news/pollster/ Five-thirty-eight.com (Nate Silver) O303.2-R234.8 (80.8%) http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ Princeton Election consortium O315-R223 (96%) http://election.princeton.edu/ Election Analytics O296.7-R241.3 http://electionanalytics.cs.illinois.edu/election12/index.html InTrade O303-R235 (66.4%) http://electoralmap.net/2012/intrade.php http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474 BetFair O 1.33-1 (75%) http://sports.betfair.com/en-gb/pol...12-11-06/next-president-market-1.21311313/sp/ Electoral Vote O299-R206 http://electoral-vote.com/ 270 to Win O281-R257 http://www.270towin.com/americas-electoral-map/ Votamatic O332-R206 http://votamatic.org/
