Russia declares new phase in war

Russia says first phase of war is over as its advances in Ukraine appear to have stalled | CNN

Hopefully this means Russia is moving towards accepting the annexation of the separatist eastern provinces as an exit to the conflict rather than the demilitarization/annexation of all of Ukraine. I don't want Putin to be able to claim a win, but it would be a relatively small price to pay for peace if a majority of the people in those provinces really do want to be Russian. And way better than what was feared (escalation into chemical warfare).

 

Maybe they are just pausing 3 months to regroup and secure what they have. Build bases and supply routes so that they can expand into the other parts.
I doubt they will pay the cost of sanctions, economically and politically and then just stop there.

 

Some of the damage done to them economically is irreversible in the medium-term. They look unreliable to investors and potential creditors. But we could make the duration/intensity of sanctions against them contingent upon what they do. Though I think there should be a penalty for what they've already done to Ukraine. Some sanctions should probably remain in place until Ukraine is functionally rebuilt at a minimum. And at least some sanctions should remain until/unless Putin is tried for his crimes.

 

Translating to English it means:
There was a big screw up in our ‘special military operation’, some military heads will roll.
We will continue to fight, we don’t care about our or Ukrainians losses.

 

They can pause all they want - Ukrainians are not pausing. They are on the roll and whole Russians regroup, there might not be any forces left to reorganize.

 

They can pause if they like....it won't change much on the ground.

The military initiative of this "operation" is used up. Seems like the Russkis have or are abandoning confrontations with Ukranian military and focusing on terrorizing the masses with missile strikes(that's their specialty), their military casualties are seemingly unsustainable.

They can regroup but sanctions will remain....even ratcheted up...making further adventures too costly.

In the meantime further aid will flow into Ukraine....financially,militarily,politically,from the West.

 

It looks to me like the incompetent, third-rate Russian army has been humiliated, and Putin is looking for a face-saving way out.

 

Yep!

And he has got to know that if he can't even take Ukraine, he doesn't even want to think about screwing with the US and NATO.

 

They must be running low on Generals by now!

Apparently the Ukrainians keep using the same play. They cut off communications between the Russian troops and command. Eventually a general goes to the front to determine the problem. And the Ukrainians take them out with a sniper.

 

#7 was killed today near Kherson....a General Yakov Rezantsev?

 

Agree. If it's one thing the invasion of Ukraine has proven, it's that NATO forces would slaughter Russian forces if they tried to take a NATO country. The Russian army reminds me of Saddam Hussein's army, running for their lives up the "highway of death".

 

Interesting, Putin wanted to restore Russia and what was the Soviet Union to their former greatness. Instead Putin has proven Russia to be nothing more than a third rate power with delusions of grandeur and a psychopath running the place.

 

Agree with all, and I would add that he's a war criminal.

 

The annexation of all of Ukraine has never been a stated goal. The goals are 1, demilitarization; 2, killing all the Nazis (or capturing); 3, recognition by Ukraine that Crimea is gone forever, as it legally is; 4, autonomy/more likely full independence and recognition of the DPR and LPR; and lastly 5, that Ukraine become a neutral state, like Switzerland. Then there are a few minor things like Ukraine will agree to quit discriminating against ethnic Russians.

That's it, that's all.

And there's a whole lot of demilitarization already done, as well as, a whole lot less Nazis.

 

My guess is they will try to consolidate what they have in the east. We have a rough idea of Russian KIA’s, but not MIA, captured, wounded, or ineffective. Furthermore, to take ground you have hold it. That takes resources and fresh troops which they don’t have.
So they will clip off some eastern territory at the cost of their economy, their reputation, and the confidence of their oligarchs who may express their loss of a world passport with a bullet.

For the record, Russia doesn’t deserve any of it. There are a couple of Russian enclaves he may be able to keep, but Ukraine owes them nothing.

 

Putin tried to seize Kiev.
He tried to assassinate Zelensky.
He sought to take all the major Ukrainian cities.

So now he's got this 'Phase 2'
It's a backdown, big time.
Russians will now dig in and go on the defensive.

But...
I reckon Ukraine will push its advantage in troops and hardware
and try to push the Russians out of Crimea and the Donbass.

and who knows --- Putin's days could be numbered, and with any luck we will de-Nazify Russia.

 

Is this the phase when the Russian military remembers how to actually fight a war, rather than just flatten cities?

 

And, apparently is unable or unwilling to have competent people around him to avoid such embarrassments. Prior to this, it always sounded like he was undefeatable and cunning. Now he looks like the coyote being foiled by the Road Runner.

 

Maybe we and NATO should just invade Russia and put Putin behind bars. We could probably take it in a week. Heck, most of what's left of his army is in or supporting their troops in Ukraine

Get that SOB. He has shown himself to be a danger to the world and a war criminal.

 

I know where you're coming from: I don't want Putin to walk away, able to claim a win, either, but I would, of course, like to see a resolution sooner, rather than later. When Russia first came out with its conditions to stop the fighting, I had a similar attitude as you, about the Eastern districts, that are home to independence movements, saying that losing these might need be considered, "the cost of doing business."

It is my belief, however, especially now, that those Eastern provinces do not want to be part of Russia. Also, the area where Russia has actually made the most substantial gaines, has been in the south, where they are still trying to take cities, as far as I am aware (in the East, they're still trying to take Mariupol, which they've already, largely, destroyed). It is hard to imagine how there could be peace, if those troops did not fall back.

I do not expect those Russian troops to, willingly, fall back. I think that @GrayMan is right, in thinking this is much more likely the "first step" to prepare for new incursions, rather than an attempt to wrap up the special military operation. Allowing Russia the chance to reset, then, without real assurances that their land grab will not simply restart, a short way down the the road, would be a mistake. Ukrainians are just beginning to get some offensive momentum; we should keep the supplies flowing, to support this shift in the dynamic, on the ground.

The chemical weapons possibility, is a tough thing to deal with. On the one hand, one might hope the NATO allies-- since it seems impractical to be able to supply the many millions of Ukranians with gas masks-- will find a unanimity of backbone, to be able to say that the use of chemical weapons, by Russia, would result in a NATO- imposed, no- fly zone. But chemical weapons could also be delivered by artillery fire, I assume (it turns out, correctly):

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...sQFnoECCYQBQ&usg=AOvVaw2o_42JCU066dx0LLGmlg1_

[Snip]
Chemical weapons can be delivered via a variety of mechanisms including but not limited to; ballistic missiles, air-dropped gravity bombs, rockets, artillery shells, aerosol canisters, land mines, and mortars. Artillery shells are conventional shells that have been converted to disperse chemical weapons.
[End]

So to fight this threat, would really require bombing raids on Russian artillery positions which, of course, would put NATO fully in the war, which no one wants. Therefore, the best approach would be to get additional planes to Ukraine, so they can deal with this threat. Our drones may be just as effective at shooting down Russian planes, but I don't know that they have sufficient firepower, to eliminate entrenched artillery. If chemical weapons are used, I would then only advocate for a no- fly zone over corridors, for the safe exit of civilians.

 

Russia’s nukes are the only thing preventing that. It certainly isn’t his joke of an army.

 

While I like your ideas, land invasion of Russia would become an impossible task if locals don’t tolerate foreigners around.
But I’d go for de-nuclearization of Russian military. Maybe even demilitarization altogether.

 

#1)demilitarization?....I guess he failed there....all the reason TO militarize....against future incursions....which are a distinct possibility.

#2)killing all Nazis.....this couldn't be more absurd. No bigger Nazi state than Ras-fascist-a Mordorland.
#3) Crimea was stolen....and so called independence for LDPR is so ****ing ridiculous ....let's be honest....no one wants Novorussia there.
4&5) one can forget neutrality after this ****ing fiasco....and no one was discriminating against Russian speakers anywhere in the East.....did anyone see Russians getting lynched in Kharkiv?

If this were regime change....Zelensky is still there....so much for a fast 72 hr operation.

 

China could probably secure everything East of Urals....without taking local attitudes much into consideration.

 

Ignoring that most of his missiles won't work, ignoring that the warheads have not been maintained, never mind that we have had anti-missile LASERS and particle beams for 30 years, MAD still applies. If he launches nukes Russia will no longer exist.