Taiwan, China & America

Last night I listened to John Batchelor of WABC 770 AM talk radio chat with Gordon Chang (Forbes et al) about the possible threat of war with China and America over Taiwan. The majority of the Taiwanese do not wish to be part of Communist China, they enjoy their freedom and independence, but the Chicoms are showing size.

China warns U.S. arms sale to Taiwan to hurt ties
http://news.yahoo.com/china-warns-u-arms-sale-taiwan-hurt-ties-084948468.html

China Upset Over Taiwan-U.S. Jet Fighter Deal
http://worldnews.about.com/b/2011/09/26/china-upset-over-taiwan-u-s-jet-fighter-deal.htm

China warns US over Taiwan arms sales - The Telegraph
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...72/China-warns-US-over-Taiwan-arms-sales.html

 

I have read several books and articles about China and the Chicoms. And almost every evening I listen to the brilliant John Batchelor who interviews people around the world. Of course, that doesn't mean that I know what is going on. Therefore, I try to become more aware.

The old guard and the military hold onto power. Yet the country might implode either economically, spiritually or democratically. There is a huge middle class who have tasted the finer things in life, but millions more who have not.

Frankly, I think India, the largest democracy in the world will catch up and surpass China.

In the past year or so many servers etc. from Taiwan have linked to my weblog.

One can type the word China or Chicoms in the searchbox and something will pop up. Sometimes you have to scroll to the end of the list of topics. I highly recommend reading "Prisoner of the State: The Secret Journal of Premier Zhao Ziyang" to get an understanding of how the Old Guard played the corrupt communist game... and still do.

Peaceful Rise in China or Old Guard Belligerence continues?
http://onwardjames.blogspot.com/2011/05/peaceful-rise-in-china-or-old-guard.html

CHINA is "rule of men" not "rule of law" — said Premier Zhao Ziyang.
http://onwardjames.blogspot.com/2011/01/china-is-rule-of-men-not-rule-of-law.html

Peter Worthington: China deserves caution, not trust
http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/01/21/peter-worthington-china-deserves-caution-not-trust/

 

The us would never go to war with someone who can actually fight back, so there is no need to worry about a war

 

Uh, I think the last 100 years of U.S. military history would utterly disagree with you.

 

F-16's to Taiwan in exchange for Lippert nomination...

US senator moves F-16C/D jet issue back to forefront
Sun, Nov 20, 2011 - SAME TACTIC: John Cornyn is threatening to withhold another of Barack Obama’s nominations to pressure the president into selling the fighter jets to Taiwan

See also:

Voters must rid Taiwan of gangster president
Sun, Nov 13, 2011 - During the 2008 presidential election, the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) campaign materials jokingly said voters were being forced to choose between the lesser of two evils — a moron or a scoundrel for president. Pan-blue voters naturally prefer a fool to a miscreant, and swing voters sympathized with the idiot; thus, in the end, the fool was the victor.

 

india lack the infrastructure and its even more corrupt than china, so if they ever catch up, it will be decades decades away.

currently taiwan is control by KMT, which has warm relationship with china. but when DPP party control taiwan, this might change, which could change the stability in that region. US prefer a warmer relationship between china and taiwan, US was very annoyed by previous president and his favor of pro-independence.

 

US never attack someone with nuke and ICBM. also US know taiwan is a core interest of china, which mean china will not back down even it means it destroy them. US prefer taiwan president who favor warm relationship between china and taiwan rather than pro-independence

 

You might as well say that the US is showing size to Cuba, or you are showing size to a kid. Just look at the map of East Asia and it is obvious which country dwarfs the rest in size and population.

 

Dont forget in 2012 there are goverment elections in Taiwan, China and US.

This could change the status quo, dependant on who gets elected.

 

My weblog was connected to several Taiwan servers before the election. Afterwards, none. But there are one or two Chicom connections.

They try everything... even tweeting.

CHINA’S STATE-SPONSORED TWEETERS & THEIR PAID TWEETS
http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers49/paper4811.html

 

The Chinese are still decades away from being truly able to take Taiwan without massive losses on their part or completely decimating Taiwan with a rain of missile. Both moves would earn them universal international condemnation and lead to a massive conflict with us, neither one of which the Chinese want.

As you point out, China has enough probelms dealing with their own population and the massive disparity between the haves and the have-nots. The middle class there may have 700 million people in it, but that leaves over a billion living in mud huts while surviving on subsistance farming. That's the sort of economnic setup that makes revolutions. A war, even one of distraction, is only going to stress that issue even more as the pressures of the war start showing up on the homefront.

You've much more to fear from North Korea's leadership going off the deep end than the Chinese.

 

I have to agree there. North Korea has already shown that it does not care what the Internation Community, or what treaties mean. They are going to do what they want, and nobody is going to tell them otherwise.

If I believe that the Chinese will go "off the deep end" on anybody, it will be against their own people again. They also have shown that they do not care what anybody else thinks, but generally had some restraint since the modern age if instant communications has been available.

But I do not think that would prevent another Tiananmen Square Massacre if they thought it was in their own self interest.

 

I think if you look at what China is doing around the world, and its pretty clear their strategy is focused on political gains through use of financial diplomacy. They are spending money in key strategic resource countries around the world- especially Africa.

While I think that China really, really wants Taiwan back in the fold, China is in this for the long term, and probably is bent on economic conquest, rather than military conquest.

North Korea....luckily for us the only place that NK can really effectively attack is South Korea- and what will the purpose be?

 

China would never commit suicide by attacking Taiwan. They have no chance of winning and stand to lose everything.

 

thats where you got wrong. if taiwan DPP win the president and annouce formal independence. china very likely will attack, its one of their core interest, and if the government don't attack, they will face massive protest from mainland chinese. if you ASK any mainland chinese on taiwan, their response is taiwan is part of china, and they are willing to bleed for it. don't understimate the chinese core interest.

the balance of power already shift. all the missile china point to taiwan has very good accuracy, which mean if china attack, its likely the taiwan airforce will be crippled after the ballistic strike.

 

apparentlly you underestimate the commitment of chinese policy on taiwan. its their core interest, and the commy lose legitimacy if they don't attack taiwan, if taiwan announce formal independence. they been prepare for invasion of taiwan for several decades. the balance of power already shift to china. US and china both want to keep the current status quo!!

 

Frankly, the corrupt old guard, the Chinese Communist elders — Chcoms for short — like money, and like to control as much as they can. But, as in Russia, the downfall of the regimes might very well be the middle classes that were formed because of capitalism. Educated. Professionals. Etc.

If anybody wishes to know more about the inside of the Chinese government that still remains read "Prisoner of the State", a memoir, actually a secret journal by an imprisoned premier of China.

CHINA is "rule of men" not "rule of law" — said Premier Zhao Ziyang.
http://onwardjames.blogspot.com/2011/01/china-is-rule-of-men-not-rule-of-law.html

 

Yeah, China has managed not to go to war over Taiwan for decades now, but tomorrow it will be different right? LOL

The PRC are pragmatists. Pragmatists are predictable. They will do what is in their best interest.

Why would they lose legitimacy? What will be different tomorrow?

They will do what they have always done...declare "victory" and go home. The only possible way war could happen is if Taiwan officially declares independence. And maybe not even then.

Up until now, The PRC has been satisfied with owning Taiwan...and by "own" they mean in every way except financially, economically, militarily or politically. LOL

And they will continue preparing indefinitely.

LOL, no they dont. China does not "want" the status quo. They just accept it. They simply have no choice. They wont wage war (a war they cant possibly win) over Taiwan. Taiwan is not important enough to them.

 

Actually, North Korea can also strike at Japan. We know they have nukes, and the Taepodong-2 missile can easily reach Japan (as well as most of Alaska).

 

China does not have the capability to really attack Taiwan. This has been coverein here many times over the past few years. They lack the Naval assets (specifically amphibious ships) to try an invasion.

 

An invasion, yes, they'd lose far more than they'd ever be able to make good on via a straight-forward amphibious assault (which is a capability the Chinese lack in any case). However, China could simply launch an all-out missile attack and follow it up with concerted air attacks. Taiwan would, at the minimum, be economically devastated, if not physically destroyed. China wouldn’t need to launch an opposed amphibious assault. They could simply walk in and pick up the pieces.

 

go study chinese policy and you understand. ask any Mainland chinese on their taiwan belief, and they will tell you, taiwan is part of china. and they are willing goto war for it. you have to understand the mindset of china core interest before say anything they will attack or not. they prefer warm relationship with taiwan, hopefully eventually abosrb taiwan. if DPP win the presidency, they might shift the status quo like the previous taiwan president.

 

Risking retaliation from the US...both economic and military. The TRA implies that the US would retaliate, and Bush actually said openly that we would (man, that really pissed them off, heh heh).

Like I said earlier, they have very little to gain and a great deal to lose. They are not going to (*)(*)(*)(*) away all their economic and political gains and risk a possible war with the US just over Taiwan. They do want Taiwan, but not enough to risk all that.

 

the air superiority already shift in china's favor, on top of that they have thousands accurate missile point at taiwan's military installation. if china can acheive air dominance. landing won't be diffcult

http://www.sinodefence.com/navy/vessel.asp

 

if a war start between taiwan and china, its not about GAIN anymore, its about their belief on reunification. many war started due to religion, believes, sovereignty etc. taiwan is a CORE INTEREST of china, its chinese belief that taiwan is part of china, its the sovereignty of a nation. you can't say they won't start a war with taiwan base on gain and lose, especially taiwan case. china will do anything they can to avoid war with taiwan, but if DPP is pushing for formal independence, then china might not have a choice but to attack taiwan. if they don't, ALMOST ALL mainland chinese will start question their government. I HAVEN'T SEEN ONE mainland chinese said taiwan is NOT part of china.

furthermore, if the conflict is over and taiwan surrender before US force arrive then there is not much US can do afterwards. one of the main reason china is build up its force is to shorten the conflict, so US won't have enough time to send force from guam/japan to help taiwan. China has alot disel sub, potential anti-ship ballistic missile, and other anti-access weapon, which will slow down the US force significantly before they can arrive to taiwan on time. also if the conflict occur 10 -20 yrs from now, US might not want to get involve in a directly conflict with china. china's military is developing rapidly, it won't able to match the size of US, but for taiwan conflict(100mile from china), its much easier for chinese military and harder for US military due to logistic etc.