The next Pandemic

Discussion in 'Science' started by Montegriffo, Apr 7, 2021.

  1. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    I don't accept how you are looking at this.

    The reason that the response was poor is that our government was not ready for it. Our government cut mask supplies before the pandemic happened, for one example. Our government eliminated the planning group that Obama had assembled from key representatives of medical science, public safety, and others.

    So, yes. Our government screwed up. And, the reason was that they took action to kill what planning we had.

    I'm not "lamenting". I'm pointing out that we can afford to have a government that can defend America.

    And, we need that, as there are NUMEROUS other sources of disease that can be successful pandemics in the USA.


    The fact that you came through is irrelevant. I'm sure you improved your own odds, didn't run out of toilet paper, etc. But, there were plenty who followed fake internet crap and thus died.
     
  2. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    No more pork, cows, chickens, turkeys, or damned near any other form of meat.
     
  3. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    Actually, I look at it completely different.

    The largest killer of humans other than themselves for the past 10,000 years has been disease. We have simply been lucky enough to have lived in a century where such was almost unheard of. We got complacent in the last century, believing that "modern medicine" made such outbreaks impossible.

    And interestingly enough, I have been telling people for over a decade that another pandemic was coming, it was just a matter of when.

    As a society, humans have forgotten all the lessons of the past, in how to mitigate much of what stopped them from spreading in the past 300 years or so, and this time we largely acted as if it was "business as usual", and did silly things that only made people feel better and did nothing to actually stop the spread. Quarantine was a joke at best, and wearing 99% of the face masks people got was about as effective as wearing a 16th century plague mask.

    We got lucky this time, because COVID was not particularly deadly. But the statistics of how many got infected should scare the hell out of anybody. That anywhere from 60-90% of the US has been infected with COVID. That screams that almost nothing that was done really worked, and to me it is that there was never any kind of quarantine enforced, especially among those infected. That means even infected people were free to go to work, shop in stores, and do the kinds of activities that spread the virus to even more people.
     
  4. 557

    557 Well-Known Member

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    I know. And no amount of facts will ever bring you around to reality. Because you want to believe government wants to help you. The idea government would intentionally do things to harm you is so disturbing you can’t bring yourself to accept facts that are evidence they have. The fact the government you trust denied you and other Americans N95 masks for 9 months that were in such oversupply their manufacturer’s were going bankrupt due to unsold inventory should be sufficient evidence on it’s own.

    The group you are referring to was created in the fall of 2016 on the very tail end of a presidency marked by criticisms of failure to adequately address H1N1 and Ebola.

    Ron Klain, Biden’s chief of staff as Vice President said this about the Obama administration response to H1N1.


    “It is purely a fortuity that this isn’t one of the great mass casualty events in American history. It had nothing to do with us doing anything right. It just had to do with luck”.

    The group Obama put together at the end of his administration that existed until 2018 did not replenish supplies of medical equipment. Why do you think they could have magically made things happen in early 2020 if they were not effective for the two years they existed?

    Having low supplies of masks at the beginning of the pandemic is true. It was the result of both the Obama and Trump administrations failing to resupply after H1N1. The two administrations were diametrically opposed on most every issue. Yet they agreed on the policy of not resupplying depleted medical supplies. Why would they agree on this point? Coincidence?

    By December of 2020 there was an oversupply of domestically produced N95 masks. The NIH and CDC under both the Trump administration and Biden administration lied to you and said there was a shortage and not to use them. The Trump and Biden administration were diametrically opposed on most every issue. But not the policy of denying available quality masks to Americans. Why? Coincidence?




    Well they did screw up. In 2009, 2014, 2019, 2020, 2021…..under multiple administrations of different parties…..more evidence I’m correct. Either government is too incompetent or too dishonest to trust with your life.

    Well, you said this. Sounds like you are lamenting lack of concern and action to me.

    Afford? Of course. We can “print” whatever amount of money needed. But obviously money isn’t the problem, is it? It’s the lack of will of government to actually actively engage in helping people.

    Well, yes you do need some protection. But it ain’t coming from your nutty Uncle Sam, so you best think about protecting yourself while you have a chance.

    That’s a fascinating perspective. Deaths are relevant but survivors are not. It’s no wonder epidemiology today is so bass ackwards. There is no curiosity or exploration into why some didn’t die and didn’t endure stress and didn’t endanger others. We can’t learn anything from survivors, they are irrelevant. Brilliant.

    Is the CDC telling people not to wear N95 masks that were in oversupply the fake internet crap you refer to?
     
  5. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    Government very clearly helps us. It provides solutions to problems capitalism doesn't solve. Given the population size, not everyone is going to understand or like the solutions.
    Exactly. We were not prepared for H1N1. And subsequently Trump killed the organization Obama put in place to improve that. One of Trump's early acts was to kill the contract process for US based mask construction that Obama had ordered.

    We were unprepared BECAUSE we as a nation didn't WANT to be prepared.

    We can continue to want America to be unprepared. That IS an option.

    But, DO NOT whine about being unprepared when lauding decisions to BE unprepared.
    Hospitals, first responders, and others continued to NOT HAVE the masks and PPE they needed for well after the events you mention here.

    We had a serious shortage of adequate masks. One can criticize the policy response, but their choices were seriously limited.
    I don't see evidence of this. The real problem during some of that period is that the population refused to follow policy directives - both as individuals and as local government.

    The idea of following policy was immediately opposed on political grounds. Not only that, but we had a president with NO medical science understanding competing with medical science by proposing homeopathic "solutions".

    That WAS a failure of government. And, we should have opposed that.
    Policies on COVID have never been inordinately expensive.
    This is false. The advice of the CDC, the incredibly rapid production of vaccines and antivirals, the dedication of those working in hospitals in the face of the very real threat to their lives - that portion of our response was incredible.

    And, individuals can not do that.

    I agree that people should protect themselves. In fact, our government constantly points out how best to do that for COVID. Wear a mask. Don't congregate. Get vaccinated. Limit travel. Etc.
    There is major investment in why COVID affects some differently than others.

    One of the specific areas of focus concerns the long term affects some COVID survivors are living with - deficits that are lasting for significant time - for years in some. And, sometimes apparantly permanent.

    The public and the media focus on deaths, because that is a clear cut measurement. But, death is not the only downside of COVID.
     
  6. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    And who is responsible for that? The hospitals, companies and local governments, or the Federal Government?

    Also, how many should they stock? Can you answer me that?

    If all those people did not have the equipment, that seems much more to me like an issue with local authority, not the President or Federal Government.

    Oh, and interesting that you then go on to talk about "replenishing" N95 masks that I guess were purchased during the Obama administration. Where did those all go, I wonder?
     
  7. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    We don't budget hospitals and first responders such that they can each have a supply as large as can be required for a serious event. This is true for ALL natural catastrophes.

    For example, we have FEMA, because localities can not each have the full requirement of disaster preparedness. In fact, it's more efficient to have one disaster recovery capability that can be applied to disasters that might take place anywhere.
    There are certainly measures for that - for keeping supplies that will last some period of time.

    Planners can notice that we allowed our mask manufacturing for this kind of mask to leave America. There were companies that had mask machines that would manufacture a million masks per DAY. They were ready to agree to keep their capacity in working order if the government would help with the machine upkeep. That would have been a low cost method of ensuring mask supply.
    The supply that the US had was depleted. Obama contracted to have that replenished. The subsequent government killed that contract when they killed the group working on pandemic resiliency.
     
  8. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    And you answered nothing.

    Who should pay for them? The Federal Government, or the organizations themselves? You said a lot of nonsense, but did not even answer what I asked.

    The same with FEMA. I would not call a pandemic a "disaster", but nice try.

    And once again, where did all the masks go? How many should have been stocked?

    You say a lot of things, and in reality you say absolutely nothing. You just spin in circles, and actually answer nothing.

    As for the companies leaving the US, what would be your solution? That the Government get into the business of making masks? That they order companies to remain open, when few are buying the domestic product because there is a cheaper one overseas?

    Care to actually give some answers, instead of just trying to obscure and avoid everything?
     
  9. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    Pandemic has absolutely been a MAJOR disaster - worse than any hurricane, earthquake, tornedo, etc. It's been worse than the flooding of NOLA.

    And, we have the existing model of FEMA concerning how disaster planning can be successful.
    Asked and answered.
    I answered all of that.

    You do have to read my post.
     
  10. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    How many were left homeless from COVID? Requiring emergency shelters and relocation? How much rebuilding was needed?

    A 10,000 car pile-up could be worse than Hurricane Katrina. That does not mean it falls under FEMA.

    And that alone is a great example of what you avoid answering. Most of the death was because of the local government, not the Federal Government. Their refusal to issue evacuation orders until the last moment (when the Feds were about to do it over their heads) was the real problem.

    Hence, why I ask where local responsibility ends, and Federal Responsibility begins. But funny, you did not answer that in any way.

    This was your answer.

    You call that an answer? How long? According to what little you said, they at least lasted a day. And that is "some period of time".

    SHould they keep on hand a 2 week supply? 30 days? 5 years? You answer nothing, just vomit up "some period of time", as if that answers anything.

    You answered none of it. As I showed above, you simply spouted off some vague sayings, with absolutely no specifics at all.

    You did not even say where the responsibility of local and private agencies ends, and the Federal Government should begin.

    You evaded answering anything, and just said things. The problem is that I do read your posts. I even quote them back to you, where you insist you answered. And as I have shown yet again, you did not.

    Do not blame me if you are unable to give any specifics, that is not my fault.
     
  11. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    Businesses and employment was seriously impacted. Availability of some important products were seriously impacted.

    A million deaths is serious.

    Factors not always associated with other natural disasters existed, such as transportation issues.
    The answer to most of that is that there needs to be planning.

    That's why Obama put together a team to do exactly that.

    With FEMA, there is a clear definition of the division between federal and local government, responsibility, for example. There are similar issues for pandemic.
     
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  12. 557

    557 Well-Known Member

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    Sure, government can be helpful and should be. But it has to be a conscious choice. I’ve pointed out several instances where government made a conscious choice to lie and spread misinformation. They consciously chose to do harm when they could have chosen to help. I’m well aware you are not capable of understanding because I’ve been showing you the data and evidence for nearly two years and you still can’t accept it.

    Capitalism solved the mask shortage because government said we needed masks. Then when the shortage was solved government prohibited sale of the product they said we needed, bankrupting companies that had solved the shortage with their capital. Capitalism was the problem solver, government created more problems by withholding masks from the public.

    Obama had been President for almost 8 years when he finally formed the group. He had botched H1N1 in 2009 and Ebola in 2014. Obama gets no credit for waiting until his two terms were over to address his failures. Trump deserves criticism for failing to fix what Obama didn’t.

    Neither Obama or Trump replenished supplies of masks. That’s just a fact. Why?

    No. You and many others were not prepared because you depend on the nation to do your work for you. I and many others were prepared. You don’t want to be prepared. You want others to prepare on your behalf and moan if they don’t do it to your liking.


    Crap in one hand and wish in the other. See which fills up first. I’ve explained why government won’t give you what you won’t do for yourself. It’s not in their best interest. Your best interest and government’s best interest are seldom the same. For those wishing to learn more about one reason why this is, check out the iron law of bureaucracy.

    https://executivecoachinglondon.com/career-development/pournelles-iron-law-of-bureaucracy/

    You keep wanting others to prepare for you. I’ll stay prepared myself. I have no interest in begging bureaucrats and elected officials to protect me.

    You are the one whining about not being prepared. I was. I am. And I’ve never lauded any decisions to be unprepared. I’ve consistently advocated for preparedness.

    Yes. But not because masks were unavailable. Because they were told they were unavailable and withheld from them by their employers.

    We have been through this before and you have never been able to refute the evidence I’ve provided. Here is some of it again. This link to the NYT is sometimes free under Covid information policy and sometimes behind a pay wall. If you copy the link to private browsing it should always work. I provide pull quotes as well.

    Remember this is not my opinion.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ny...alth/covid-masks-china-united-states.amp.html

    The people on the front lines were denied masks by their employers and the CDC. There were masks readily available for sale and hospitals refused to buy them. Mask companies were literally going into institutions and pushing their NIOSH certified masks to buyers but buyers held out for cheaper Chinese masks.

    You have been sold a huge terrible lie.

    Only a shortage until late 2020. No shortage after that. The CDC finally stopped recommending AGAINST N95 masks September of 2021.

    This is a well documented FACT.


    You think Biden’s chief of staff was lying? I’m open to evidence he was. Who refused to follow H1N1 policy? Ebola policy?

    The real problem was government providing disinformation. They told you to wear cloth masks. They withheld available N95s.

    Why would you expect people to follow advice of known liars?

    Yes, I’ve opposed every bit of government failure. You accept it and defend it.

    You brought up cost, not me.

    Almost all advice from the CDC was incorrect. Vaccines were produced by capitalism, not government. Frontline medical are to be commended. Their employers ought to be tried for murder for withholding available domestic NIOSH certified N95 masks from their employees.

    Failure and lies are responses you see as incredible?

    Nobody has claimed individuals can create vaccines. But individuals can provide far better advice than the CDC. The member Centerfield and myself both posted advice far superior to anything from the CDC. And we told the truth about vaccines, not garbage propaganda.

    Wear the wrong mask. Don’t wear the right mask. Don’t wear a mask where infection is most likely. Do wear masks where infection is least likely. Get vaccinated but don’t engage in behaviors as or more protective than vaccines. Don’t engage in behaviors that increase efficacy of vaccines. Don’t practice effective social distancing. Etc.

    And look what we got for it! A million dead. Government DID NOT advise the best ways to protect yourself from Covid.

    I have posted voluminously on Covid sequelae. I’m the only PF member who has pointed out all viral diseases produce some sequelae similar to Covid and that influenza produces nearly identical sequelae but that information has been withheld from you.

    There has been some probing of why Covid affects people differently. But NO advice on how to protect yourself based on the results of studies. The CDC is not telling you sleep quality predicts infection risk as well as severity risk. They are not telling you diet does as well. Or hydration levels. Or BMI. Or exercise participation rates.

    And you are right. Telling you the above would cost little. And it would save many lives and sequelae cases. Yet such information is reserved for folks like me who base decisions on peer reviewed research. Why?

    The living, myself included, are relevant. My survival is relevant, as is yours. And much can be learned from difference in stress levels, risk of infection, and risk of severe disease between us based on our levels of preparedness.
     
  13. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    And once again, a lot of talk-talk-talk. Yet, you answer nothing.

    How many supplies should the Feds provide to State and Civilian companies?

    How long of supplies should be stockpiled?

    You see, what you avoid answering tells me a lot. And I do remember what you avoid answering.

    Even what you spin circles around and never actually discuss at all.

    This is why I largely dismiss you over and over again. You refuse to ever discuss things that really matter and substance, and instead try to bully people out of some kind of "survivor's guilt".

    Here is the funny thing, I live with that guilt every day, and know how to recognize it. Maybe that is why it is so ineffective against me. Because I have the real thing, and you only play at it.
     
  14. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    Interesting point.

    I myself was involved in the H1N1 outbreak. I was actually deployed to the Middle East at the time, and before I could return home for my wife's cancer surgery, I had to get the H1N1 vaccination.

    And that was way back in 2009.

    So why was this critical group only formed in 2016?

    That was freaking 7 years later, in the tail end of his second term. If it was so freaking important, why was it not formed in 2009? Or 2010? Why 6 years later?

    And even more important, why was it just an "advisory group"? Why was it not permanently attached to a specific department, with an actual budget and resources allocated to it?

    Because like so many things in Government (like "Executive Orders"), it is largely just to give a show of doing something. Because if it was supposed to be something permanent, it would have been actually been put under some department with an actual annual budget and a specified number of employees.

    That is the amazing thing about spending decades as a "Government Employee". We learn to tell the **** from the shinola. And that was 100% shinola because not a single thing was ever done to make it permanent. It was only an "advisory group", and never had any power at all.
     
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  15. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    Here's how to prevent more global pandemics:

    End globalism
     
  16. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    Which was their own choice. Nothing to do with Govt.
     
  17. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    The reason we're going to be wiped out by viruses (if the nukes or starvation don't get us first) is TRAVEL. That's what's changed in 300 years. We can't keep still. Globalism - one way or the other - will wipe us out. It's the single most destructive and stupid thing humans have ever done. Absolute hubris.
     
  18. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    Then how did the multiple plagues wipe out most humans from Asia to Africa and Europe over 500 years ago?

    The only difference then was nobody was trading with the Americas. Which caused a significant problem with the natives hundreds of years later as they had no immunities that the rest of the world had developed.

    "Globalism" is a nice political-conspiracy theory catch-all. But it completely ignores that various plagues had been jumping from Asia to Europe and beyond well over 800 years ago.

    Absolutely ignoring reality for your fantasy belief.
     
  19. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    If you're actually likening the sailing ship driven trade of 800 years ago (limited as it was to a tiny proportion of a much smaller global population), to modern travel .. the fantasy is all yours.

    We are utterly PROFLIGATE with our movement, in a jet age wherein even working class people indulge. Even our movement over land is beyond spastic. We need to stay in one place, and we need hard borders.
     
  20. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    Do you deny that plagues were travelling over the 3 most populous continents back when the most advanced transportation was a ship or camel?

    That the first major outbreak in the 6th century CE killed around 25 million in Europe alone?

    Sorry, if you can not see that that was far worse than what we went through in the last few years, the fantasy is all yours.
     
  21. Montegriffo

    Montegriffo Well-Known Member

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    How?
    In the words of Margaret thatcher ''there is no alternative''.
     
  22. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    Hospitals were out of masks and PPE for many months. Healthcare workers and hospital patients were less protected because of that shortage. At a time when retired medical workers were coming back to hospitals to help, we didn't have the masks to help keep them from contracting COVID from their patients. The population of hospital workers had significantly higher death rate from COVID than did the general public, and we needed those workers alive.

    We depleted our mask reserve due to the previous epidemic. Obama ordered masks. That order was canceled by the subsequent administration. I've pointed this out several times, yet you just say the same stuff.

    Private enterprise found that they couldn't compete with foreign made masks, and seriously decreased production of the masks that were of the quality needed for protection against COVID.
    Yes, we were not prepared for H1N1. And, that is why Obama took the actions he did - ordering more masks to refill the reserve and creating a planning team for future pandemic response.

    Trump terminated BOTH of those.

    Also, Trump made a huge political deal out of hating China. But, China has a huge natural repository of other SARS variants. Destroying our relationship with China means we can not work with China on that health care issue. THAT is a PROBLEM.
    You don't know ANYTHING about my preparedness.

    And, the issue is that AMERICA was not prepared. Surely you have some level of care concerning America.
    This just brings up more of the problem of the fake medicine that was promoted by Trump and others.

    The idea that the political leadership of America promoted homeopathy rather than science based medicine is terrifying.

    Government definitely made some mistakes. But, those mistakes CAN be addressed. And they can help in ways that individuals absolutely can NOT help themselves.

    Rather than throwing up our hands in terror of government, we need to back better planning so we will be in a better position for the next pandemic.

    And, there is NO QUESTION that we will face more pandemics, and not just in the distant future. If you think this pandemic was the end of it, we can have that conversation.
     
  23. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    I've answered those questions MULTIPLE TIMES.

    AGAIN: The strategy we use for preparedness against the next pandemic needs to come from serious planning that considers the options available.

    We did that with FEMA. That planning has resulted in a huge improvement in how we respond to natural disasters.

    Now, we need to do that for disease.

    You can't meaningfully ask individuals questions like "how many masks should be in the national repository?" Obviously, that is going to largely depend on the plan for how that repository is used. How long does it have to hold before production can take over? Who is going to use those masks? How much capacity should states be providing for their hospitals? Etc.

    We did that with FEMA. States know what they will get. And, they know what part of the problem they have to solve. Also, individuals know what they can expect (if they ask). States have their own plans for how they will provide for their end of the deal in times of natural disaster. They publish those plans.
     
  24. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    Our government encouraged people to stake their lives on fake medicine and to ignore medical science advice on defensive measures.

    The result is that we have a higher death count.
     
  25. (original)late

    (original)late Banned

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    We had a higher death count because Trump is an incompetent sociopath, several hundred thousand, conservatively.
     
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