The US is in Relative Decline against China

This is certainly not a new story, but it does bear repeating. From Marketwatch:

The U.S. is in ‘relative decline’ as ‘Chinese power is rapidly rising

The days of U.S. hegemony are numbered and China is waiting in the wings, argues Ray Dalio, in his most recent missive on LinkedIn…

…Dalio thinks that China is on a better footing and may soon surpass the U.S. The wealthy investor whose net worth is estimated to be $18 billion, according to Forbes data, isn’t the first to make such a prediction and he isn’t even the most audacious one to so.

There has been a sweeping assumption that China will eventually eclipse the U.S.’s economic dominance in real terms. Standard Chartered Bank, for example, had forecast that China will likely become the world’s biggest economy at some point this year.

At last check, U.S. gross domestic product, or GDP, was at $21.44 trillion on a nominal basis, while China’s GDP was around of $14 trillion. By another measure, known as purchasing power parity, which weighs a country’s respective purchasing power, China’s GDP would be $27.31 trillion, based on data from International Monetary Fund.

In the post pandemic era (yes, I think there will actually be one) China still looks like the strong horse. China was economically damaged, yes but not in the way that almost the entire industrialized West damaged itself. As far as the self-imposed economic damage goes, what the West did to itself will last for years.

Of course China did sustain other damage to itself that won’t be so easy to repair. China’s behavior, from hiding the true extent of the virus, and therefore exporting it all over the world, to revealing it’s true face by threatening to withhold pharmaceuticals from the US, has caused the scales to fall from the eyes of some US policy makers. I say ‘some’ since many more are still in the pro-China camp. Particularly those of the establishment bent.

This could have some interesting results for the election, offering a clear foreign policy choice between the two candidates; one that regards China as a threat and an enemy, and one that regards China as friend and partner and RUSSIA as the true enemy.

 

1. We can't go to war with them.
2. They refuse to treat their workers fairly
3 Americans refuse to stop buying their crap.
4. Our government sells them all our secrets

So yeah, that doesn't suprise me one bit.

We are the least of China's problems we are about to rip eachother apart.

 

Well yes, we are ripping each other a part, but I guess that's one of the results of not even being able to agree who are enemy is.

 

The united states is also the largest consumer for the goods from the nation of China. Essentially meaning the nation of China would suffer significant economic downfall without the united states.

 

Communism as always is the enemy.

 

Uh back to my point, there is no national consensus on this. Half the country thinks China is the good guys in this, and Trump is the bad guy.

 

Given Trump’s behavior at the outset of the pandemic there isn’t a clear foreign policy choice. He was solidly in the Xi camp.

 

Half the country is wrong, they know they are wrong and they do not care. Their agenda is more valuable to them than the good of the country.. their agenda is hatred for Trump but worse they hate traditional American values, they are actively and knowingly trying to tear America down.. they are evil.

 

I don't think they think they are wrong.

 

i don't think it's a matter of opinion, The left wing democrats are objectively wrong.
Yes Trump is an idiot yes he says a lot of stupid ignorant things. but his actions have largely been dead on.
And American history has largely been a description of great people doing great things, no not perfect and in fact with great flaws but still great people.

Example Henry Ford was a horrible anti-Semite but he was a great man who did great things.

 

The official US establishment position is that China good / Trump bad. Saying they are objectively wrong changes none of their opinions or actions.

 

you're correct they don't change their minds when you confront them with the truth anyway.. I'm tired and frustrated by them ruining the country deliberately , now i just call them like they are..

 

That's the problem with this country. It's too divided. We need to rally around the fact that Trump is the greatest gift to America.

 

I'm not sure I'd go that far.. but he is vastly better thsn anything the dems got

 

@Lil Mike I think to know how both countries would perform in the country is the state of its youth.

I can't really speak for China, but I think that the american one, and the one of the developped world, is mostly damaged.

With young people, especially young male retreating more and more in video games, internet, it would be harder to compete. The issue of video game addict young males has never really be considered as a political level in USA, it has been in China. By the way, they use the good old method of a totalitarian country : sending people in camps.
I suppose that chinese youth has also much less narcotic addicts. Chinese youth don't have a lot of debt, neither the chinese state.
To that we could add the fact that american birth rate continue to fall. Chinese have also a low birth rate, but it's by design, and more controled. The USA are becoming more and more a sterile people. Less young people mean less working people, less taxe provider, and consider that many of them are facing heavy mental issues, things are getting even darker.
Also, I would consider "wokeness" is an issue, and USA has other destructive ideologies.

I almost never seen any thread on those issues on this forum. The fact that people don't seems to be really aware of those issues or to care about contribute to my pessimism.

The future of your country seems not very bright to me, but my own country isn't in a better condition. Most of those issues are a worldwide problem among developped countries.

I really fail to see how the USA could in the future better China. I would suppose that in 20 years, save a major unexpected event, China would be definitively much more powerfull than the USA.

 

~ I believe that this latest China fiasco could very well destroy the Chinese economy and even collapse the Communist party. As we speak unemployment in China is staggering.

 

The problem is, with Trump everyone is the enemy.

 

just the democrats and the media and he is not far from right, there might be some good democrats but they are very quiet

 

Well that's bit of a broad comment, but it's one I generally agree with. The US is in decline, and it's not reversible, at least not by any think tank policy suggestion. However it seems to me that Europe is much further down the road of decline than the US. I think we're about 20 years behind where Europe ( I mean Western Europe; the former East Bloc is a different kettle of fish) is but we're catching up. The Chinese actually think long term and have made a lot of good policy decisions (for them) to enhance their wealth and power. In the West, we want to spend our wealth, or divvy it up in different ways, we're no longer interested in creating it. One of the many reasons we're in decline.

 

Who do you think the bigger enemy of the US is, China or Russia?

 

Oh it's not just Democrats and the media. It extends to allies and enemies alike. Even his own people.

 

What makes you think either one is our enemy?
If you mean competitor.. China, by far.

 

I saw this published in Bloomberg, the guy is either a moron or a Globalist stooge... my pick is the latter. Millions have lost their jobs in China as demand came to a halt and the stock of their state owned enterprises is just about to become delisted from the US, they have very little in the form of productivity (probably build some more ghost cities) ... this guy is embarrassing himself, the only thing happening in China next is hyperinflation.

You know what he's probably trying to talk Chinese stock up so he can sell

 

The world has changed .. China is roughly 20% of the world economy - The US is the same - EU another 20% - India coupled with other nations such as Japan - S. Korea. Taiwan another 20% - and the rest of the world the other 20 ..

Almost of these nations are technically "our enemy" when it comes to fighting for a piece of the global economic pie.

The problem with China is that they are no longer only a nation making cheap socks - they are competing in most areas - and they have a system where they can focus resources efficiently - cheap abundant very well educated labor pool - limited free market. It is a form of unfair competition -

The global system - was not set up to handle a competitor like this - one that seems to be gobbling up everything in its path - Yet at the same time this is a monster of our own creation - facilitated by the system that we created (we meaning the US and the Western powers)

At the same time - we can not just wish this monster away - or just shun China - turning our backs on near 25% of the worlds purchasing power. The rest of the world will continue on without us and we will continue to shrink and wither.

The only realistic way to fight this beast is to get the other economies of the world on board - EU being first on the list - shoring up India et al #2 .. and anyone else we can get on board #3. Trade partnership of some sort - either formal or informal.

Trump is trying to go it alone - do it unilaterally - alienating the rest of the world that matters - and that is a blunder.

 

~ China is the equivalent of a modern day Adolf Hitler. THAT is the problem. Now the rest of the free world sees the true intention, history and threat that China's communist party imposed. With a little help from a few countries the CCP could implode.
We shall soon see ...