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Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by Statistikhengst, Mar 14, 2020.

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  1. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Gov. Cuomo is going to sign an executive order allowing the State of NY to take ventilators and PPE from private hospitals - the equipement will either be returned or reimbursed.

    This is a hard decision. But Cuomo is determined that people in NY not die unnecessarily.
     
    Statistikhengst, Apr 3, 2020
    #2801
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  2. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    But a healthy individual with the same infection has minor or no symptoms. The underlying serious condition (diabetes, obesity, pre diabetes, heart disease) is the cause of death.
     
    AFM, Apr 3, 2020
    #2802
  3. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    YEPP.

    Exactly what I have been indicating in a number of postings.

    The numbers speak for themselves.
     
    Statistikhengst, Apr 3, 2020
    #2803
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  4. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Cuomo is grandstanding. There remain ventilators in the federal reserve, anesthesia machines can be quickly converted, and he does not have an immediate need.
     
    AFM, Apr 3, 2020
    #2804
  5. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Statistikhengst, Apr 3, 2020
    #2805
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  6. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    ACH.... DIE GUTE ALTE DEUTSCHE GRÜNDLICHKEIT!!!
     
    Statistikhengst, Apr 3, 2020
    #2806
  7. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    Tja.

    I think we need a corona Darwin Award thread, could be amusing
     
    gnoib, Apr 3, 2020
    #2807
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  8. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

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    Disagree. 2 Million is a randU number. Utterly meaningless. A model is only as good as its inputs.
     
    gfm7175, Apr 3, 2020
    #2808
  9. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    No, that logic still makes zero sense. At best, you can say that the lethality of the virus increases if you have an underlying condition, but it is still the virus that kills the person.

    The person usually dies because they effectively drown from the body being overwhelmed by its own inflammatory response. The virus is what causes that effect - not the diabetes or obesity.
     
    MrTLegal, Apr 3, 2020
    #2809
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  10. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    What an amazingly original thought. Let us know when you have something to contribute.
     
    Last edited: Apr 3, 2020
    MrTLegal, Apr 3, 2020
    #2810
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  11. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    On average, 2-300 new patients need a ventilator each night in New York. With ~2000 ventilators in reserve, that means New York will run out in about 6-7 days.
     
    MrTLegal, Apr 3, 2020
    #2811
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  12. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Last evening (my time), we crossed over the 1,000,000 mark.

    Today, at 17:25 GMT +2 (11:25 AM EDT on the East Coast of the USA), we are already more than halfway to 1.1 million.
    Also, yesterday, we crossed over, unfortunately, 50,000 deaths.
    We are now already very close to 56,000 total deaths today.

    2020-04-002 MOD 001.png


    As predicted (and this is actually a no-brainer), things are moving faster now, for more nations have crossed well over the 1,000 line and are posting bigger and bigger numbers all the time. The question is whether the daily additions to the total are a growth percentage low enough to flatten the overall exponential curve. THAT's the rub.
    So, the column to watch closely is column D - % growth rate for the overall total / column H - % growth rate for the overall death total. You will see that right now, the growth rate from today over yesterday (my timezone) is: 4.52%. But, there are 6.5 hours left in my day and very surely this day will end with a growth rate similar to yesterday. What we are looking for is for the growth rate to subside, first slowly, and at the end (hopefully), suddenly.
     
    Statistikhengst, Apr 3, 2020
    #2812
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  13. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Ding-ding!!!

    I'm all in.
     
    Statistikhengst, Apr 3, 2020
    #2813
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  14. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Statistikhengst, Apr 3, 2020
    #2814
  15. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

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    So you agree that a model is only as good as its inputs?
     
    gfm7175, Apr 3, 2020
    #2815
  16. Adfundum

    Adfundum Moderator Staff Member Donor

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    That's a lot to think about. Thanks. I'm hoping as hard as possible that your are very wrong. But I will not laugh and call you a fool. In fact, the big take away from the article I mentioned was that the Epidemiologists' projections were scary, but very probable--as long as we take no action. We are taking action, and even if it was not done soon enough, it will change the outcome and make those dire warnings seem hysterical--exactly the purpose of those graphs and big numbers.

    As for the tsunami/wave thing, I was referring to those who will mock the charts and laugh at the predictions. I'm hoping that over the next two weeks we'll see enough of a reduction that it will make those people say, "I told you it wasn't so bad."

    Totally agree.
     
    Last edited: Apr 3, 2020
    Adfundum, Apr 3, 2020
    #2816
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  17. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    I agree that someone who believes they alone understand science is not worthy of any significant attention.
     
    MrTLegal, Apr 3, 2020
    #2817
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  18. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

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    gfm7175, Apr 3, 2020
    #2818
  19. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    Neither are those keyboard warriors who are convinced that they are better informed than the governor of New York.
     
    Derideo_Te, Apr 3, 2020
    #2819
  20. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Please do not post on this thread unless you have something intelligent to contribute.
     
    MrTLegal, Apr 3, 2020
    #2820
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  21. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    My passion for writing so much about this, especially to you is:

    -my heart is physically breaking over this. Innocent people are going to die all over the place and I can't do a damned thing about it.
    -I really like you. You are a brainiac and a real + for PF. We need more of you here.
    -someone has to say the ugly stuff, and in this case, since I started the thread, it should be me. So, I'll gladly take the heat for the ugly stuff.

    I would be delighted to be totally wrong about all of this. But the inertia of this situation is becoming more and more apparent. Good luck stopping the water when it is already halfway down the Niagara Falls.

    Without unified world-wide action, about 2% of the world is pretty much guaranteed to die and good 30% of it will be maimed. It's not just about the USA or the EU or China. It's about all of us.
     
    Statistikhengst, Apr 3, 2020
    #2821
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  22. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Since I have never encountered you before, first, welcome to the thread. I greet every person here initially with open arms.
    Second, if you have data to add, feel free to do it and feel free to analyse it, along with the data of others.
    Third, I would strongly recommend that you not troll. I personally have a "3 strikes, yer out" policy.
    You now have two more tries with me, nööööö.

    Again, welcome to the thread. Next time, post something of substance. This is how you will earn the respect and DIALOGUE of other people.

    Thanks.
     
    Statistikhengst, Apr 3, 2020
    #2822
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  23. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    An effective vaccine would be a godsend.
    Antibody are needed to test the broader population to see where we stand overall. It would also help in terms of who can work with vulnerable populations like senior care facilities.

    First up--we can hope for an effective treatment. Got my fingers crossed.
     
    LangleyMan, Apr 3, 2020
    #2823
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  24. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

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    Inversion Fallacy.
     
    gfm7175, Apr 3, 2020
    #2824
  25. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    New York will not run out of ventilators.
     
    Last edited: Apr 3, 2020
    AFM, Apr 3, 2020
    #2825
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