Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Because they naively believe that we can "snap it back on", and/or the government will continue to pay them off(one of those is more probable than the other.). And that other one comes with the tremendous financial price, that isn't understood by those without a financial background.

I'm sounding the financial alarm like the models sounded the coronavirus alarm. We're going to have a difficult 10-15 years financially.

We were in the black by a few million dollars in 1929. That was the CRASH then. We have dumped TRILLIONS. Trillions! And real wealth is denominal to financial activity, Said activity that as you know, doesn't exist!

It's not "if" we have a financial crash, it's how long the crash will last. Will we be in 1929-1945 territory all over again? Or can we somehow limit to the Roaring 20's?(Which was a precursor to the great depression.)

Either way, much like with Coronavirus, we have to assume a financial crash is inevitable and plan accordingly.

 

Yes, the sad implication is that we aren't saving people with underlying conditions forever, but extending the time that they contract the virus out for several months. Some will be saved if they survive long enough until we have a vaccine or treatment.

Many will die from the virus over a longer period of time, but not because they couldn't get a hospital bed or ventilator. They won't end up in a tent morgue or a temporary mass grave.

 

While I appreciate your position we are not in the same situation as we were in 1929. That collapse had much more in common with the 2008 collapse.

What we have now is very different in that it is a global Pandemic and we have a better understanding of our OPTIONS when it comes to recovering from an economic collapse. We saw what happened in the EU when strict financial limitations were imposed upon Greece and Spain as opposed to the corporate bailouts that happened here in the US. Between those two extremes is a middle ground where we can apply the appropriate measures that will result is an economic recovery.

The KEY POINT is that ALL economies RELY upon CONSUMERS having DISPOSABLE income.

If we reward corporations while neglecting hardworking Americans there is ZERO incentive for corporations to hire anyone and there is ZERO capital for anyone to start their own businesses.

Alternatively if we provide hardworking Americans with an ongoing stipend to pay their bills they can put their ingenuity to work in coming up with new ways of generating income. Corporations will AUTOMATICALLY benefit from the money that is in the hands of those hardworking Americans. The onus is on those corporations to come up with the products and services that this new economy will need.

So if we focus on helping hardworking Americans instead of corporations we will see an economic recovery on a much shorter time scale.

 

Many of those small Appalachian communities - including coal communities - will find it MUCH easier to limit access to he outside world than inner urban communities. Some would argue they have been doing it for generations.

That doesn't mean they won't get touched by this, but they may be able to limit exposure.

 

If they implement strict Stay at Home rules they are in a better position to limit their exposure.

However they have limited resources when it comes to being able to purchase supplies and wait it out.

This is the problem with being stuck in poverty. It means that your job is usually low paying and you are required to actually be present in order to earn that pittance. These are the workers in the supermarkets and the fast food joints and the cleaners and maintenance people. They are essentially forced to leave their homes just to feed themselves and pay their utility bills. On top of that a great many of them are sick and need medical attention which again means going to clinics and mingling with others.

Their choices are limited and their plight is no less dire than those in the inner cities.

 

We'll see how dire their plight gets. Like I said, those communities will find it easier to stop the disease getting into the community than inner urban neighbourhoods. That is a very important start. If they are clever about this & have the assistance of government (local & State in particular) they may be able to effectively seal off some places & limit outside contact to just essential economic stuff. They will still need to practice appropriate behaviours where practical, but the fewer cases that get in the better.

Of course, this all relies on the right things being done. It doesn't take a lot of people breaking the rules to mess everything up, and as we see daily on this forum, there are people either stupid enough, arrogant enough or brainwashed enough to think the rules should not or do not apply to them.

 

The U.S. model indicates a much better projection with the daily update.

Estimated total deaths dropped almost 20K to 60,000 and the floor is the lowest ever at 30k. The worst-cast ceiling is still high, close to 130k.

We can't afford to be complacent.

I think one of the actions taken which has had the largest impact is cancelling/rescheduling non-urgent medical visits and procedures. We're essentially telling people "Don't go to the doctor/hospital," which may not be good for general health outcomes in the longer run, but in the immediate "now", it has freed up a lot of hospital beds.

 

You prompted me to do some more research and I want I discovered was both what I expected and some that I had not. The first link is to a map and the second to an article that I am going to quote from.

https://arcgov.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=79194f02a3214f3e8284437d60d1e9a5

https://www.yesmagazine.org/health-happiness/2020/04/06/coronavirus-appalachia/

https://www.wtap.com/content/news/BREAKING-1st-COVID-19-case-in-WVa-confirmed-568875821.html

So what MIGHT have been a "safe haven" to avoid the Pandemic has turned into the a worst case scenario with limited medical and food resources among a poverty stricken area. At least in the inner cities there are ambulances, hospitals, ICU's and ventilators. If you are sick out there you are essentially on your own and WV is only one out of many states in the Appalachians that will be facing this problem.

Yes, the BEHAVIOR of the people OUTSIDE the area that have brought the virus into the Appalachians and put some of our most vulnerable citizens into peril.

 

Blood plasma transfer is showing promise.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-patients-benefit-blood-recovered-024502745.html

"For 10 patients severely ill with the new coronavirus, a single dose of antibodies drawn from the blood of people who had recovered from COVID-19 appeared to save lives, shorten the duration of symptoms, improve oxygen levels and speed up viral clearance, newly published research reports.

The preliminary findings emerged from a “pilot study” published Monday in the journal PNAS, the Proceedings of the National Academies of Sciences. Conducted at three hospitals in China, it underscored the promise of harvesting immune antibodies from recovered people (a therapy also known as convalescent plasma) and administering them to people battling a severe case of COVID-19."

 

I can see governors putting roadblocks at state lines soon.

Texas already restricted flights from the most hard hit cities/states and restricted road travel to and from Louisiana. We have check points on the border between Texas and Louisiana.

It's human nature to flee from a dangerous place to a safe(r) place, but in this case, it just spreads the danger.

U.S. Interstate map:

 

The New York data looks like nearly every single death in the state yesterday was in New York City. That's inconsistent with previous days.

 

Ironic that our freedom of movement is what is placing us all at significantly higher risk.

 

virtually every city, or at least every county has a poor neighborhood. But I would agree that only in the big cities is that combined with being densely packed + mass transport which impacts the spread as well.

I left Chicago 30+ years ago, once I received even a small taste of semi rural living I knew I was only going back for funerals and weddings. (and if you cant give me the courtesy of dying in the summer I might just send a card)

 

It's based on new cases and the orders of magnitude higher than reality projections of the first models.

 

Go back and read the link I posted.

 

I think that they acted appropriately based on doomsday predictions. Now that the reality (which is still tragic) is becoming clear it's time to start the economy again in a responsible way.

Sweden for example is not experiencing the doomsday prediction rates and they have basically implemented a herd immunity strategy with modifications such as limiting large gatherings. On a deaths per million population they are doing worse than some and better than some other first world countries. Denmark, Czech Republic, Austria, and Norway are implementing plans to begin returning to normal economic activity in med April. The Trump administration has not formally declared a date but is putting together plans for starting up the economy again.

 

http://www.lauraingraham.com/b/Amer...pandemic,-poll-finds/-262910756634510724.html

 

As usually I take a look at the days to double the cases. Germany is now at 15 days.
France dropped a day and is now below 6 days, yaiks.

I expect that Eastern will be a Super GAU for the bibel belt if they can not control the churches.

 

Why would you assume a church taking care to stay 6’ apart, washing hands, and avoiding touching their faces would be any different that a grocery store. From what I’ve seen churches would be much better.

 

Colorado, it still looks like it peaked April 2
https://covid19.colorado.gov/case-data
My county has no new cases, still at 8, 1 dead.

 

Here's a per capita (per million) line graph - going back the last ~21 days - of those five countries (US included). I think Czech, Austria and Norway might have an argument for opening the economy relatively soon given that their lines have at least started to turn.



The USA and Denmark though are still curving upwards (with the US obvious curving up very hard still).

 

You should see how they have organized our grocery stores, absolute crowd control, one way ails, every cart pre- disinfected, mandatory masks and so on.
Check out your local Wall Mart, you will be surprised how well they have organized and manage crowd control.

The churches, when open, will be packed in the bibel belt. One guy in PA is planning a Woodstock type religious festival, a real hard core Corona Party.
I bet you a case of Corona Extra, if they can not keep the ……….. churches closed, they will see a explosion of spread and new cases.

 

I would agree, the grocery is still pretty bad, even with some precautions it's bad. I did my last grocery run yesterday to stock up for the next 10 days and it was more crowded than I preferred.

Also, Unfortunately I'm not so confident that I can make it 10 days without returning, but that's the plan. Best I've done so far is 3 days, not good.

Home Depot wasn't a whole lot better even though they are using crowd control measures.

I mentioned this in another thread but our local news was shaming people in the home depot parking lot because it was supposed to be open so contractors and people with emergencies can get stuff. Not for people buying wire shelving for a closet project because they're bored.

( I was buying PVC pipe & sprinkler heads to fix a bad section on my lawn. a project I've been putting off for 2 months = boredom) the news story made me rethink my decision to go.

 

Why would assume that churches in general would not act responsibly ?? Our local grocery store only has clerks with latex gloves and plexiglass shields.

 

no masks either. My grocery won't allow them which surprised me. Maybe that will change with the new recommendations.

But yes it's kind of a funny feeling when I put 40 items on the register and then that cashier touches all 40 of them to scan then the bagger touches all 40 and puts them in a bag. It makes you start doing the math of how many items they've touched since the last time they washed their hands. makes you a bit paranoid.