Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

@Sanskrit enjoys it when people spread his unsupported conspiratorial bullshit. So it is better to just reference him with the @ function and then to remind him of the idiocy associated with his earlier predictions.

Like the fact that he no longer likes to include a link to the Covid-19 data page at the realclearpolitics page in order to justify the dumbassery that Covid-19 is no worse than a "bad cold" because it has killed fewer Americans in 8 weeks than the seasonal flu kills in an average year.

When he first tried to make that claim, the number of States that lost more to Covid-19 in two months than those States lost after the average year to the seasonal flu was 16.

And now, two weeks later, the number of States which has crossed that moronic standard is 25. I made the prediction that we would be at 40 before the year's end and then @Sanskrit followed up by predicting that Covid-19 would "disappear like MERs" by September. So you can see that he enjoys making really ill-informed predictions.

 

Drug overdoses kill about 70,000 Americans a year.

 

I'd blame the Welfare State, which has destroyed the black family. I bet very few of those rioting feral youth come from an intact two parent home. Black kids from such homes do about as well as their white counterparts.

This is all a huge overreaction, much like the COVID reaction. Last year nine unarmed blacks died at the hands of police, and nineteen whites. Of course blacks will have a lot of interactions with police, the commit about half our murders despite being about 12% of the population.

 

They don't have to be ducted. They're more efficient than natural gas furnaces.

 

So, you want to take away welfare benefits? How is that going to work? What do you think people who can't find work are going to do?

Overreaction why whom? And I would suggest we had an under-reaction to the virus. If we had acted like Australia, New Zealand, or even British Columbia in Canada, we would be in much better shape.

 

Doubt you could source a home furnace in this country, even if it were legal to have one in your house! We just don't need that kind of heating here. Our climate really doesn't require more than a basic reverse cycle wall unit in the main living area, and in coastal parts of the country doesn't even really need that. Only mountainous inland areas see the low daytime winter temps which make heating essential, and we tend to use slow-combustion wood burners in these areas. Much cheaper than running gas or electric heating around the clock. Actually free for most .. since we can easily source deadfall and salvaged wood outside of the cities. Some older folk buy in ready split hardwood, but anyone still capable of swinging a Fiskars will go with the free stuff!

 

His would be a terrible troll. Too bizarre.

 

Now that I’m old I enjoy our ducted heating and the split system for the summer.

 

Is a heat pump like a stored heat process?

 

HERE the entire posting for EOD the day before.

During the run of the day on 2020-06-001, there was one analysis of size:
USA EOD report for 2020-05-031, posted 2020-06-001, 10:30 GMT +2, #9675.


NOTE: to confirm this quick analysis or to sort the date as you wish, use the following links to work the table on your own:
- the WORLDOMETER website for today, or
- the WAYBACK MACHINE when searching for today's date in the future. In order to to that, search for one day later than you want, then use the "yesterday" function at the top their large excel table. On some days, WORLDOMETER also provides a "2 days ago" function as well, which is the case today.

​

COVID-19 worldwide statistics EOD Report for Monday, 2020-06-001 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

******6,363,196******
+103,946 cases today over yesterday.
There are 115 nations with at least 100 COVID-19 cases.
There are now 377,191 COVID-19 deaths worldwide.
732 Brazilians, 730 Americans & 200 Indians died from COVID-19 on this day.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

We ended the 1st day of month 6 of the year 2020 on the way upward to 6.4 million C19 cases.

You can see that for a sixth day in a row, the world saw more than +100,000 new C19 cases, even on a Sunday and Monday, where the case load has tended to recede somewhat. Compared to the 4 Mondays before, we see that the Monday case-load has risen since 2020-05-011. In terms of daily deaths, 2020-06-001 was minimally larger but very comparable to both 2020-05-018 and 2020-05-011 and if you will recall, on 2020-05-025, Spain revised its death results for the autonomous regions down by about 1,900, so actually, about 3,800 people died on 2020-05-025, but the clerical end of this makes the statistic look far lower. So, on Mondays, we have been moving between +3,000 and +4,000 C19 deaths worldwide.

Total cases per country, descending (countries circa +25 C19 cases and above):
​

In terms of total cases per country, there are 115 nations in the "thousand club". Of those 115, 53 are in the "10,000 club. At 9,982 C19 cases, Bolivia will surely become the 54th and cross over the 10,000 line today, 2020-06-002. Algeria and Armenia will cross over in the days afterward.

Finally, 13 of those 53 are now at 100,000 or more, with Chile having crossed over the 100,000 mark on 2020-06-001. Canada, Mexico and Saudi Arabia are not far behind.

In terms of the countries with the most new cases: the USA lead Brazil with the most new cases. Russia, India, Peru, Chile, Mexico, Iran and Pakistan took rankings 3-9 in daily C19 cases. The day before, Pakistan was rank 7. VERY DISTURBING is that Iran is so high up on this list. We must now ask if Iran is starting to encounter a second wave. @Iranian Monitor - your thoughts??

63 countries had +100 or more new cases, a little less than 1/3 of all nations in the world. The day before, it was 63. Of those 63, 16 countries had +1000 or more new cases, among them, among them, Quatar, Colombia and Saudi Arabia.

In terms of total deaths per country, descending, there are SEVENTY-ONE nations with 100 total deaths or more. That is 1/3 of all nations on the Earth. Of those 71, TWENTY-EIGHT nations have over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths to date, with Egypt having crossed over the 1,000 death line on 2020-06-001. There are 13 nations between 500-1000 total deaths and you can be guaranteed that by the end of this month, every single on of them will have gone over this gruesome marker.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths, Brazil was at rank 1 (+732), the USA at rank 2 (+730), then India at rank 3 (+200); things are beginning to happen in India as testing is ramping up.

7 nations reported over +100 daily deaths (it was 8 the day before). 4 of those 8 countries are from the Americas.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country, 13 nations have administered more than 1 million tests apiece.The USA has now performed 18.2 million tests (500,000 more than the day before) while Russia has performed 10.9 million tests (300,000 more than the day before). Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations in terms of COVID-19 infections, is stuck at 930,000 tests. Just imagine how many more positives Brazil would now be showing were it to test on the scale of the USA or Russia.... and btw, Peru and Venezuela have performed more C19 tests than Brazil. Because so many other nations are starting to ramp up their testing, here the rankings for the top 27 countries:



On this list are nine nations between 800,000-1,000,000 administered tests and I would wager to say that by the end of June, 2020, all nine of them will go over the 1,000,000 mark. This is also the reason why daily +125,000 positives, soon, maybe considerably more, is going to become the new normal. If you don't test, then you can't isolate, mitigate and contract-trace.

Facit: on 2020-06-001, the world came in 2/3 of the way between 6.3 and 6.4 million total C19 cases. We are on our way to 10 million confirmed C19 cases by the end of June 2020.

Now at +106,925 deaths, the USA has long surpassed a gruesome milestone in our world's history, one that no country should ever reach. At the USA analysis for 2020-05-026, I started a new extrapolation.... this means that 200,000 total US deaths may come upon us sooner than many may be thinking possible. Soon, I will be starting an extrapolation for the world as well.

The world-wide curve has most definitely flattened, which was the primary goal of mitigation. The very low growth rate in total cases is a good sign. The question now is: how long will the plateau last? Let's see what the planned testing of the entire cities of Wuhan (China) and Los Angeles (USA) bring.

Editorial comment: my gut tells me that we are going to see one or more very unpleasant surprises in this month as concerns COVID-19: either a massive rise in cases and deaths where we were not looking, or something new about the illness itself that we had not known before, something that will make going into the summer of 2020 (in the Northern Hemisphere) even more difficult. I am feeling this deep down in my bones. I have a very, very bad feeling about this month.


-Stat

 

I was more optimistic about things until a couple of week ago, with that optimism backed by some early indications when the virus first began to spread in different places, that warming weather would help provide a respite. At the moment, that optimism appears to have been misplaced. The number of new cases has been rising very rapidly since the end of business closures and such. While the number of deaths in Iran haven't reached the levels we had a couple months ago, the curve that was declining on this front has began gradually to shift upward. And concerns that the virus, if anything, may prove more dangerous in any 2nd wave, are underscored by some of what was being reported yesterday.

What to do with these concerns, worries and facts, in light of some other worries, concerns and facts which need to be placed alongside them, is also a question that doesn't have seem to have any easy answers.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...in-covid-19-cases-stokes-fears-of-second-wave

This part of what Iran's health minister mentioned caught my attention and increased some of my worries:

 

HERE the COVID-19 USA numbers for the day before.

And now the COVID-19 USA numbers for Monday, 2020-06-001 in the USA (EOD = GMT +0):

COVID-19 USA statistics EOD Report for Monday, 2020-06-001 in the USA (EOD = GMT +0):

*1,859,323*
+22,153 cases today over the day before.
106,925 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA.
730 Americans out of the total above died from COVID-19 on this day.
615,416 people have recovered, 1,136,982 are, however, still sick.​

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

In order to confirm my quick analysis, please go directly to the WORLDOMETER website today or to the WAYBACK MACHINE after today. If you use the wayback machine after today, search for one day later than the date you want, then use the "yesterday" function at the top their large excel table. This way, you have more control over what you want to see and when you want to see it.

The daily deaths from 2020-06-001 track with the Monday before in that for the second time on a Monday in a long time, we came in under +1,000 C19 deaths, which is good, but the number is higher than the week before. The number of new C19 cases is also higher than the Monday before (that Monday was Memorial Day 2020).

COVID-19 in the USA, by state, total confirmed cases, descending:
​

Total confirmed C-19 cases:​

45 out of 50 states have over 1,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases. VT (983) is crawling slowly up to the 1,000 line. 32 of those 45, + "Veterans affairs" (13,657 - no change over the last four days) now have more than 10,000 cases, with both KY and KS having crossed the 10,000-line on 2020-06-001, so actually, it's 33, and Veterans Affairs is really rank 31. At 9,999 (no change from the day before), UT is guaranteed to cross over the 10,000 the next time it reports, likely today, 2020-06-002. Also, at 9,885, the number of infected military personnel is moving toward toward the 10,000 mark. DE, DC, NV, NM will shortly also cross that gruesome line.

Call me a pessimist if you will, but the US territories have barely tested for C19 and their total administered test numbers have barely budged. This means that Guam, the VI et al are not really testing and that may really boomerang on us. A day may come when Guam suddenly tests 30,000 and finds 15,000 of them to be positive.... so I think it's very naive to think that nothing is happening in the territories just because they are at sea. If I recall, the SS-Roosevelt was also at sea.

Also, by the end of the year, the chances are close to 100% that every state and territory will have over 500 C19 cases and maybe 45 of them will have over 10,000. The point is: this this is long not over with. And here I am referring only to the year 2020. There will also be 2021 to consider.

New daily cases:​

34 states (including DC) reported more than +100 new cases; the day before, it was 33.

3 of those 34 states reported over +1,000 new cases on 2020-05-029: MA (+3,840), CA (+2,535) and TX (+1,130), with IL (+974), NY (+923) and NJ (+878 ) under +1,000. The day before, it was 3 states. It's looks like MA is not over the 1st wave yet.

1 state reported no new cases: HI.

New daily deaths:​

I think this is the most important category when looking to see where other hotspots are emerging and since deaths lag behind new cases, the two rankings are often not the same.

38 of 50 states reported at least one death. The day before, it was 35.

Of those 38, 1 states reported more than 100 daily deaths: MA (+189). At rank two was NY, with +70, a big drop between rank 1 and 2.


The fact that the death toll has been reduced on a Monday is, of course, a good sign, but it has also been statistically so for weeks now.

Total deaths:
​

40 states have more than 100 total deaths. That's 4/5 of the nation in terms of numbers of US states. In terms of population, it's far more than that. At 89 and 83 total deaths respectively, ME and ID will soon cross over that marker.

Of those 40, 19 states in the Union now have a total of more than +1,000 COVID-19 deaths. At 948 and 917 total deaths respectively, both AZ and AZ will soon cross over that gruesome marker.


FACIT: on 2020-06-001, we ended the day with 106,925 US deaths from COVID-19. Now, all that as raw numbers may not really be getting into peoples' heads quite yet, so here is the listing of US-American cities with a projected 2020 population of between roughly 107,000-111,000:



As of 2020-06-001, this means that we lost the equivalent of ALL of West Palm Beach, never to get it back again. Think about that.

NEW EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-06-001):​

What happens if, on the average, instead of 1,400 dead per day (which was the extrapolation from 2020-04-028 through 2020-05-031), let's take 1/2 of that, "just" 700 dead per day every day from the beginning of June, 2020, until the end of this year?

This is simple math: from June 1, 2020 through December 31, 2020, there are 214 days (7 months at 30 days plus four months with one extra day, the 31st: July, August, October, December). 214 * 700 = 149,800 + 106,195 = 255,995 US-American deaths (effectively, 256,000) by the end of 2020 if the average daily deaths are just one-half of what I extrapolated from April 28-May 31, 2020.

On 2020-06-001, 730 Americans died of COVID-19, +30 over the extrapolation, and surely Monday of this week will show the lowest death toll of all for this week, when all is said and done.

Instead of hammering on this every day, I have created a new tab at the online excel table (see: top of analysis or my sig-file):



When you go to the logistical tab, it looks like this and is color-coded the same as the USA statistics tab:



At the tab, I have already programmed in all seven months until the end of the year. You see for 2020-06-001, I have already input the daily deaths (730). The column to the right of that does the simple math for me, it shows "30", meaning the difference between the total deaths and the extrapolated deaths, meaning 30 more than extrapolated. There will be days when the difference number may be extremely high and there may be days (and I hope and pray for these days) where the difference number goes into negative values, but the jist of this is that by the time we get to the end of the year, we should be pushing 256,000 US deaths from C19, even under the best of circumstances. BTW, I type in the actual date when I input the death data for that date, to keep things clean. And right now you see massive negative values in the "difference" columns, apart from 2020-06-001. This is because no value has been input into the actual deaths column - yet.

So, some dates to keep in mind. If this trends as I think it may, averaging at some point in time, +700 deaths per day, then we would likely reach the following milemarkers:
150,000 deaths on or around 2020-08-002.
200,000 deaths on or around 2020-10-013.
250,000 deaths on or around 2020-12-023.

Instead of doing the extrapolation every day, I will simply indicate the link to the excel-table every day and you can go see for yourself. Or, you can simply note the number of daily deaths for the day of the analysis and calculate for yourself how far above or below 700 it is. On the first day of each coming month, when I do the EOD report for the last day of the month before, I will screenshot that month from the tab and then we can see how things are happening, comparatively.

Mitigate. Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the new extrapolation, which started on June 1st, 2020, to happen.


-Stat

 

One of the best postings I have ever read anywhere, anytime. This is worth reading many times over.

 

You're going to excuse the cops killing a handcuffed guy?

 

Well...

https://www.stiebel-eltron.com.au/air-source-heating-heat-pumps

I don't doubt your claim about how Aussies heat their homes, but heat pumps are available.

Not surprised. I'd bet it has never been below freezing in Sydney.

We were in Switzerland with six Aussies when it started to snow. They went absolutely nuts when it piled up and they could go out in it. None of them had ever seen snow.

 

No, SARS-CoV-2 is stalking the land and we'll soon see more dead.

BTW, calling it the "Chinese Flu" is dumb.

 

Colorado Data

https://covid19.colorado.gov/data/case-data

As expected 7 days after Memorial, the surge in my county is on

 

Not sure exactly what you're saying. Wiki explains it well.

A heat pump is a device that transfers heat energy from a source of heat to what is called a thermal reservoir. Heat pumps move thermal energy in the opposite direction of spontaneous heat transfer, by absorbing heat from a cold space and releasing it to a warmer one. A heat pump uses external power to accomplish the work of transferring energy from the heat source to the heat sink. The most common design of a heat pump involves four main components – a condenser, an expansion valve, an evaporator and a compressor. The heat transfer medium circulated through these components is called refrigerant.​

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_pump

 

Are they responsible for their culture? Are white people responsible for white racism? Are blacks responsible for racism against white people?

I think the way out for all of us is talking to each other.

 

I recognize COVID-19 is for real, and it's the greatest danger that the world has ever faced. And it's one of the many reasons to stop the riots, because essentially the virus has new vectors to infect.

 

It will be very instructive to see what happens after more than a week of protests.

 

How many of the protesters will bring COVID-19 home to their grandma who only loved and cared for them, and now takes care of their kids?

 

I want 2019 back. Hell, I'll settle for 2018 or any other year except maybe 2001(9/11 attacks and stuff.)

 

I'm not sure how to break this to you, so I will just let you read the OP, but this thread is, as pertains to the virus, non-partisan. This disease has nothing to do either with "the Left" or "the Right". Just because there were astroturfed protests against the shutdown and now, protests in the wake of the brutal murder in Minneapolis, this does not mean that either "the right" or "the left" have cancelled anything. The virus is coursing through our land, totally irrespective of peoples' political inclinations.

I am going to give you exactly one chance to get this through your head and make a course correction on this thread before I start reporting such malarkey that is not based on facts, but rather, only one feelings and brazen propaganda.