Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Not really.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/infection-trajectory-flattening-the-covid19-curve/

 

Last thing I'm going to note on this tonight, after looking over the averages and medians for each country, I am seeing a declining rate across the board in every country except Switzerland, which I suspect is due to reporting issues. While I would like to say there are some positive conclusions to be drawn, I can't say for certain due to the bit erratic nature of the reporting at lower numbers. But just to give a bit of color, here are the averages all together:



Here's hoping the trend continues this week. All these countries (as well as the rest of the world) need to get the new infection rates down to single digits pronto.

 

True, but no country has done so little testing, and so late, in proportion to its population, as the USA. THAT'S the difference.

 

An observation of mine for the total numbers, not just Italy:



Here I am referring to the daily growth rate in the number of reported cases. First, a caveat: this is not really scientific, because I have not reported the daily numbers at exactly the same time every day, but generally, late in the evening my time in Germany. And one day is missing. 2020-20-009. But that being said, we see a recognizable pattern here, also a very logical one. The the growth rate of the number of confirmed-COVID-19 cases has risen for 1-2-3 days in a row, and then it drops slightly. Where it picks up again, it starts at a higher % and then goes 1-2-3 days, and then drops shortly. Where it picks up again, it again moves to an overall higher growth rate. I assume this has to do with some cases abating in areas where there have been extreme measures to slow it down, while other areas suddenly pop up as hot-spots. But more concerning, regardless of slight lapses in the growth rate, the death rate has pretty much risen on a direct line from 3.41% of reported cases to 3.92% of reported cases.

 

The Robert-Koch-Institute of Germany has been holding a press-conference, I've been reporting about it on Twitter, there is some important new information.
https://twitter.com/Statistikhengst/status/1239846490090229760


(Here all 44 minutes from the press conference)

The three most important pieces of information that he provided:

1.) As of today, the entire Bundesrepublik Deutschland (BRD) has been reclassified from a moderate-risk-area to a high-risk-area.

2.) Germany is now able to conduct 160,000 COVID-19 tests per week, just under 1.3 million tests every two months.

3.) When asked how long he thinks the pandemic will be, he reminded that pandemics tend to come in waves and before enough people will have contracted the disease, recovered from the disease and developed a natural immunity to COVID-19 for the future, Germany is reckoning with 2 years of pandemic. Yes, you heard me right. Not 3 or 4 months. TWO YEARS.

Also, as of tomorrow, the RKI is providing an online "dashboard" with all of the relevant statistics over the virus.

 

Just a thought about those 1-2-3 periods of rising and falling. They might coincide with how people interacted socially prior to being aware that the disease was among them. I am just speculating here but if you begin with a Friday, Saturday, Sunday social interaction period that then drops off as people go to work on Monday and Tuesday and then they begin to socialize as the weekend approached and the cycle repeats over the next weekend.

Hopefully social distancing and the closure of pubs, malls, movies and restaurants will break this cycle.

 

This is Awesome.

Pinning this thread in a New Section devoted to discussion of the Virus.

 

That is an unusual pattern, but I'm not sure what to make of it. I've been seeing somewhat erratic spikes at the country level. These may just represent several countries either ramping up testing, or struggling to accurately report data as they transition from 100's of reports to 1000's.

The increase in death rate is not lost on me. I am thinking that is due to a) initial low rates followed by higher rates of death (as the average time to die from the disease lags a bit behind reports of infections), and b) overloading of hospitals in a few hotspots. Hopefully the (b) case does not spread much outside of Northern Italy, or that is the real disaster we are worried about.

One thing I do expect is that the mortality rate will spike and and go back down as nations mange to flatten the curve. I suspect that mostly because the death rate should be trailing a bit behind new infection rate. I'll see if I can add China and South Korea statistics today to verify if that hypothesis holds true on those nations - although I honestly don't trust China's numbers due to the early period of suppressing information about the outbreak.

 

Thank you.

 

The following message is coursing through German social media all over the country:

English translation:

Sticking together!

Let's, with the following gesture stick together and thank our doctors, sanitators, nurses and all of the heros, who in this very moment are fighting for your health and safety, and today and award them with applause after the example set by the spaniards today (Tuesday) at 9 PM

Date: Tuesday, 17 March 2020
Place: Germany, at an opened window
Time: 9:00 PM

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I will be doing this in 2 hours.

 

I just want to note that for the fourth day in a row, around 350 Italians died today.
This is really horrifying.

Also, Spain has now crossed the 500 mark in terms of people who have died.

Until this time today, another 1,000 have tested positive for the COVID-19 virus in the USA. There are now 5,723 infected Americans.

Also, the death rate is currently over 4.0%

The curve really is exponential. Don't let anyone lie to you about it.

We MUST flatten the curve, otherwise we end up with around 5 BILLION people on the planet with the virus. 4% of 5 BILLION people would mean 200 MILLION dead.

 

I concur with you, I just don't know what to make of it.

And the other thing that is surely going to be a headache for the entire world are the so-called re-infections that are apparently happening all over the place.
So, it's a virus that technically is not as deadly as SARS or MERS but yet, far, far, far more contagious and when it does find a weakened host, it then does kill or leave damage in the body similar to SARS or AIDS.

The Germans have a word for this: heimtückisch

AS for the mortality rate: I would hope that it is far less than 1%. It's frankly terrifying that we are looking at a 4% mortality rate, based on reported cases. It can be that there are 5 or 10 times as many people actually infected as have actually tested, they are asymptomatic and were they counted, the mortality rate would be lower.

But if we extrapolate the infected out to August, at this rate, we are well over 300,000,000 people infected. That means 12 million dead, far more than the flu.

 

This is an outstanding video and goes exactly to the point I have been making, that the true number of infected, although we do not know it, must be a number of magnitudes higher than the actual totals being posted by the various nations.

This is why isolation is the only sure fire way to flatten the curve and at the same time, allow human beings to develop a körpereigene immunity to this particular virus.

That being said, I can only work with the numbers that have been published. So, the coin has two sides.

 

These are only the interim figures for today (I will post the end figures in about 2 or 3 hours), but you can see that the mortality rate is staying above 4.0%



This is EXACTLY how an exponential curve looks when you put it in table form.
Also, the percentage of those who have recovered and are being sent home has again gone down.
We will surely go over 8,000 dead today. That is a THREE FOLD increase over 20 days ago.

 

I have been griping all along about how Turkey, India and Russia are blatantly lying about their COVID-19 numbers (I indicated it right away in the OP), but soon, they cannot do this anymore.

This is a notification over twitter. I ran the cyrillic through the translator (my Russian is rusty):



It's also being reported directly in Russian media:



Please note that the russian article is already dated for 18 March 2020 - because in the Moscow time-zone, it's already Wednesday.

 

BTW, I did that.

 

So since the OP addressed Germany, perhaps you can explain why Trump is responsible for what is happening in Germany. Of course you can't and blather on about what is happening on Trump's watch. Well guess what. World War II happened on FDR's watch. So using your "logic" FDR was a terrible President.

 

Just three days ago, when I started this thread, here was how it looked in Germany at that moment:



And now, just a little less than 3 days later:




The number of reported infections in Germany has DOUBLED in slightly less than 3 days time. The number of dead between 2020-03-017 and 2020-03-020 has more than TRIPLED.

So, let's just take Germany and round that number down to 9,000 deaths and instead of 3 days, what happens if the number of infected doubles every 4 days:

03-20: 9,000
03-24: 18,000
03-28: 36,000
04-01: 72,000
04-05: 144,000
04-09: 288,000
04-13: 576,000
04-17: 1,152,000
04-20: 2,304,000

THIS IS WHY ME MUST FLATTEN THE CURVE

 

For those weak in understanding, the exact title of this thread, which I wrote, is:

Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

As you can plainly see, I am not just tracking the numbers in Germany.

 

For the weak in understanding the Covid-19 cannot be blamed on Trump.

 

No, but his administrations handling of it can.

 

wow pretty bad i say. basically need mutliple mitigation till vaccine if found.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

 

Perhaps if he wasn't dealing with Shampeachment in January more could have been done.

 

So, the COVID-19 numbers for the end of day for me on March 17, 2020:



For the first time since disease tracking began, we have gone over the 4% death-rate. It was 3.4% 20 days ago.

Specific countries:



Italy suffered the most today, with +3,526 new cases and +349 deaths. Spain also suffered greatly, with +1,1184 new cases and +191 deaths. Iran also suffered greatly, with +1,1178 new cases and +135 deaths.

Germany finished the day with a total of 9,367 cases (doubling the number from just 3 days ago), +2,095 new cases and +9 deaths. The numbers in France and the USA are very close to each other.

The long and short of this is nothing less than terrifying. Every shred of evidence points to the number of cases and number of deaths from this highly contagious virus being on an exponential trajectory.

Here the numbers since 02-27, in reverse chronological order:



Three days ago, when I began this thread at end of day (for me in Germany) on 2020-03-014, there were 156,086 cases and 5,821 deaths. In just 3 days, there are now 33,000 new cases and about 2,000 more deaths.

Soon, we will be seeing jumps of 33,000 cases per day.

WE MUST FLATTEN THE CURVE.

I just want to remind: every single one of those deaths was a person, who had some kind of family, who was likely loved and surely sorely missed.

Yes, at the moment, more people on this planet have died of the normal flu in this year, but in one month or less, that will no longer be the case.

Good night.

-Stat

 

*Sigh*. Yeah, I cannot see any silver lining on almost any single country currently over 1000 cases outside South Korea / China right now. The numbers are just bad all around, and getting worse pretty much across the board. We are bound to see 10K deaths in the next 48 hours, and will be lucky to be under 15K by Monday. I can only hope the quarantine measures being taken around the world start showing up in the numbers soon.

Globally, I question if it will show much abatement as I'm not sure what other countries just now seeing 100's of cases (Brazil, Egypt, Israel, Pakistan, etc) are taking extreme enough measures to cut the spread of the virus in their countries while they can still avoid hundreds of deaths, if not thousands if actions aren't taken soon enough.