Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Yes. That is the IHME model which the U.S. chose to use and announced a few days ago at the end of the 15-day period, that we've been calling the Murray model.

Thanks for the Twitter feed. Mr. Bergstrom may post additional charts for more data than the tracking model shows...or get updates more quickly.

 

Sounds good. Given the ultimate consequences, where they come from is not of any importance.

That they are accurate continually is however. Less than 5-faulty per 100 assessments is an absolute must ...

 

Well, to get back to topic. Germany is doing a great job. Hopefully Italy is to. CA is seeing improvement and NY and NJ will hopefully break the back of this thing in April.

Well, actually Trump was not only right about the ventilators and the hoarding, but now there is evidence that he was right about the thefts too. I'm not surprised that you have suddenly lost your stomach for this debate.

“No evidence.” ABC News, meet CNBC:

 

I'm officially not going to have a hard time disregarding your posts, I've had enough with the trolling and insults, brings nothing positive to the discussion

 

I hope it ends here soon too. The empty shelves and the limited quantities (if there is product) are making people go on many more shopping trips than used to be required just for basic needs.

 

There is nothing particularly magical about 95% reliability compared to 90% reliability. Obviously, the more reliable, the better. But these testing kits are rather easy to produce and there will be an excess number of such kits around the world in short order as many other countries will be producing them.

There will be a lot of other things which will be produced in excess to meet the current situation. But those systems or organizations which are driven mainly by market demand, will always be behind the curve producing these things when facing a sudden surge in demand like this. Having empty hospital beds, under utilized doctors, extra unneeded face masks, etc, isn't economically efficient. Nor having excess supplies of other goods. Those organizations which aren't driven by economic efficiency, and are in the business of preparing for 'worst cases' (such as military organizations that need to prepare for war) will often be the ones to meet the shortfall in these circumstances. In Iran, for instance, a favorite group of many people here (namely the revolutionary guards) (I am being sarcastic, of course) is actually in the forefront of fielding hospital beds, producing face masks, testing kits, chemical disinfectants, with the country is also comparatively better prepared (despite sanctions) to make sure its stores are filled with needed supplies because (unlike some other countries) Iran has had to prepare itself for the 'worst case", expecting previously that worse case to be war with the US and not a pandemic.

 

Evolution of Tests per day from the Our World in Data Site here. (Site consulted is in French, but graphic easy to read.)

But not copyable off the web (except by photo). And not down-loadable.

 

Flattening the curve now is just buying us some time to figure out where to get additional hospital beds where needed, and to compete for ventilators where there aren't enough available. We should be far better equipped for a Fall/Winter Round II.

Nothing like a "forced upgrade" to our healthcare readiness.

 

It has to be very good, the upgrade.

The SARS epidemic (2002/2004) in China cost the lives of 774 people world wide and it took two years to finally stop it.

We'll need some VERY advanced technological development to shorten that time-lag (of 2 years), but it should be doable.

I hope, I hope, I hope ...

 

That's worrying.

 

Sounds like the U.S. We sent most of the tests to New York, New Jersey, Washington, California, Florida. States with a low number of cases are getting relatively fewer tests.

 

There must be millions. If we assume that the sick are staying home or are in hospitals, then it is mostly asymptomatic people passing it around. That's one reason Dr. Birx harped on the Spring Break kids for two or three days in a row. They have the same risk of acquiring the virus and the highest likelihood of not having any symptoms from it.

 

If nothing else, the world will have hundreds of thousands more ventilators after this.

 

I think they should conduct a random test of the population to find out the answers. It doesn't seem, in theory, all that difficult to use a random sample to find out what percentage of the population is (a) infected (b) infected without symptoms already (c) infected and showing symptoms. And these random tests should be conducted quite regularly, similar to how you do regular polling (except, of course, getting tested is more intrusive but at the same time presumably more valuable to people than answering poll questions).

One caveat: someone who isn't showing symptoms but tests positive is not immune from developing symptoms down the road. A much better understanding of the time lags involved between getting infected, becoming symptomatic or not, getting ill, dying or recovery, is needed. I have seen the figures on these issues, but my look at some cases I read about it, suggests our understanding is still limited and not fully informed.

 

Seven days have elapsed from the time that the study was initially created, so I wanted to update this chart. Note that I am quoting from the Government's preferred website (https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections) . If you are aware of any STATE-WIDE orders that are not listed, please let me know (preferably with a source). New additions are in bold.

Topline findings: There are now 24 States who have implemented at least 3 of the 4 containment steps. That is a marginal increase from two days ago when it was 20. There are still zero states to implement the TSL step and there are still two States which have implemented zero steps.

It is absurd to me that a State like Iowa and Nebraska would refuse to implement any of the Steps or a State like Florida and Georgia have only implemented one while a State like Montana has implemented three.

Here's the rundown of the 50 States. I will use Acronyms for those that have been implemented. - Stay at Home (SAH), Educational Facilities Closed (EFC), Non-essential services closed (NESC), and Travel Severely Limited (TSL)
Alabama - 1/4 (EFC)
Alaska - 3/4 (SAH, EFC, NESC)
Arizona - 2/4 (SAH, EFC)
Arkansas - 1/4 (EFC)
California - 3/4 (SAH, EFC, NESC)
Colorado - 3/4 (SAH, EFC, NESC)
Connecticut - 2/4 (EFC, NESC)
Delaware - 3/4 (SAH, EFC, NESC)
District of Columbia - 3/4 (SAH, EFC, NESC)
Florida - 1/4 (EFC)
Georgia - 1/4 (EFC)
Hawaii - 3/4 (SAH, EFC, NESC)
Idaho - 3/4 (SAH, EFC, NESC)
Illinois - 3/4 (SAH, EFC, NESC)
Indiana - 3/4 (SAH, EFC, NESC)
Iowa - 0/4
Kansas - 2/4 (SAH, EFC)
Kentucky - 2/4 (EFC, NESC)
Louisiana - 3/4 (SAH, EFC, NESC)
Maine - 3/4 (SAH, EFC, NESC)
Maryland - 3/4 (SAH, EFC, NESC)
Massachusetts - 2/4 (EFC, NESC)
Michigan - 3/4 (SAH, EFC, NESC)
Minnesota - 2/4 (SAH, EFC)
Mississippi - 1/4 (EFC)
Missouri - 1/4 (EFC)
Montana - 3/4 (SAH, EFC, NESC)
Nebraska - 0/4
Nevada - 2/4 (EFC, NESC)
New Hampshire - 3/4 (SAH, EFC, NESC)
New Jersey - 3/4 (SAH, EFC, NESC)
New Mexico - 2/4 (EFC, NESC)
New York - 3/4 (SAH, EFC, NESC)
North Carolina - 3/4 (SAH, EFC, NESC)
North Dakota - 1/4 (EFC)
Ohio - 3/4 (SAH, EFC, NESC)
Oklahoma - 1/4 (EFC)
Oregon - 2/4 (SAH, EFC)
Pennsylvania - 3/4 (SAH, EFC, NESC)
Rhode Island - 2/4 (SAH, EFC) - This actually dropped so that NESC is no longer listed
South Carolina - 1/4 (EFC) - This actually dropped so that NESC is no longer listed
South Dakota - 1/4 (EFC)
Tennessee - 2/4 (EFC, NESC)
Texas - 1/4 (EFC)
Utah - 1/4 (EFC)
Vermont - 3/4 (SAH, EFC, NESC)
Virginia - 2/4 (SAH, EFC)
Washington - 3/4 (SAH, EFC, NESC)
West Virginia - 3/4 (SAH, EFC, NESC)
Wisconsin - 3/4 (SAH, EFC, NESC)
Wyoming - 1/4 (EFC)

 

Speaking of college kids driving a cities numbers way up in one day. (Okay, we weren't talking about that but here it is.)

University of Texas in Austin (my city) just brought home 28 new cases from Spring Breaking in Mexico. The other 42 are quarantined. They took one flight to Mexico but took several flights back to Austin. How many did they expose because they just had to have fun?


28 University of Texas spring breakers who defied officials' warnings test positive for coronavirus

"A group of spring breakers who defied public officials' coronavirus warnings are now dealing with the consequences of not canceling non-essential travel and practicing social distancing. About 70 people in their 20s traveled in a large group from Austin, Texas, to Cabo San Lucas in Mexico in mid-March. Now, 28 of them have tested positive for COVID-19, the Austin Public Health Department says.


The group flew to Mexico on a charter flight about a week and a half ago and some of the vacationers returned on separate commercial flights, the City of Austin said in a press release."

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/spring...for-covid-19-travel-to-cabo-san-lucas-mexico/

 

Exactly. Get tested today and get the virus tomorrow while waiting for results. Mass testing is useless since the cat is out of the bag as far as prevention. Mass testing is always useful for scientific studies.

I'm looking more for the antibody tests to come out now than anything else.

 

found tp this morning, 16 mega-rolls!
hot dam! paid $22 which is ridiculous.

we were well stocked 3 weeks go before the world went nuts, but I was down to 4 rolls.

things were about to get serious around here.

 

Texas' Gov. just announced yesterday that the "essential businesses" allowed to operate are the same as the federal Department of Homeland Security list. That executive order overrides whatever each city and county have decided.

Unfortunately, he excluded religious services, which he is allowing as long as the organization can keep people at 6ft spacing. That was kind of dumb, IMO.

 

Mass testing is useless, but I would like to see random testing done. That can give us the required data with sufficient reliability.

 

Other than for health workers, I also think that all this testing is a waste of time and money. That is why I have been ignoring the coronavirus case numbers as they don't help in trying to stop the virus but are useful if you want to encourage the population to be aware of the dangers. But that awareness is not needed anymore as the number of deaths is now enough to scare the population into cooperating

 

There are so many places of worship that are doing services via Zoom or a similar tool; being there in person is completely unnecessary. The cost of a Zoom account is negligible.

 

Mass testing, meaning testing everyone or a very large percentage of the population, isn't necessary IMO. But I am not as dismissive on testing as you are either. While I agree that we shouldn't focus so much on 'reported cases' in looking at the spread of the virus as they are largely a reflection of how many are being tested, I do think we need to have enough tests done. For one thing, if you have a cold or flu and are worried about having the Coronavirus, the test can help settle any concerns. For those who test positive, that will help them take extra precautions and be more careful. And, ultimately, you can't fight a pandemic if you are totally in the dark about its spread. You need enough testing done, but for those who aren't ill, the best use of testing to me is doing 'random tests' to try to extrapolate the actual figures and trends from them.

 

Disagree on the bolded.

They accomplish different things. Randomized testing gives us a better idea of what a typical population should look like, within a margin of error. Mass testing gives us a better idea of what is actually happening within the given population.

They can be used to complement each other.

 

I have to think about that, but mass testing (meaning testing everyone) seems a bit impractical and likely to divert resources and manpower from things which could use those resources better.