Trump Celebrates 'Fantastic Evening' of Endorsed Candidate Wins

No do the weeks special elections that actually pitted R vs D, and not Trump R vs R primaries.

 

below is trumps playbook when endorsing a candidate

first, he finds a candidate that is 20 points ahead in the polls..

then he makes sure he won that district by 20 points in 2020..

then he endorses a sure winner

it is like picking the Yankees, or Dodgers to win their division ...not much of a secret they are the best in that division

 

I don't know if it gets closer than the previous two elections. This one is going to be about abortion rights probably more than it will be about him. His greatest impact will be in the form of radical nominees he backed who will go on to lose many races around the country.

 

Were HCI assets on the menu?

 

He cost Republicans control of the Senate when he contrived to lose Georgia in 2020.

Trump suggests he might have cost Republicans the Senate
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He has continued to burnish his credentials as an elective pantload, and should again work his magic in 2022.

 

You would only believe that if you watch Fox news

 

Why watch Fox when you can get all your news from the Internet?

https://www.uspresidentialelectionn...ncluding-80-of-democrats/#:~:text=Eighty-five percent of U.S. adults say the country,The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

You should try it sometime.

 

Check it out. 6 in 10 Republicans want their loss in 2024 to be assured:

https://thehill.com/homenews/361873...-say-trump-should-be-2024-gop-nominee-survey/

 

I blame Trump for it. It left the nation dangling by Joe Manchin's uncertain backbone and cost the American taxpayer $Trillions as unchecked Dems lit the raging fires of inflation through runaway spending and put a Justice on the Supreme Court who thinks you have to be a biologist to know a woman when you see one.

He trails by Warnock by three and the GOP polling tends to improve from August going into the final stretch.

Sen. Raphael Warnock is doing quite well for himself, personally, in the U.S. Senate.

'Sen. Raphael Warnock (D., Ga.) more than doubled his income since joining the Senate last year, with most of his half-a-million-dollar haul coming from outside employers and book deals.'

'Warnock's total income of $532,781 in 2021, a significant bump from the $221,602 he earned in the year before his election. Less than half of his income last year came from his Senate salary, which was $164,816. Ebenezer Baptist Church paid him an additional $120,964, including a $7,417-per-month housing allowance. Penguin Random House also paid him $243,750 as an advance on his memoir that was published in June, and he received $5,750 in speaking fees.'



'Warnock’s spike in earnings comes two years after he accused his predecessor, former Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler, of "using the people’s seat to enrich yourself."' Looks like he is well on his way to turning his senate seat into a multimillion-dollar personal fortune. 'Warnock's 100 percent income increase shows how quickly that can happen, as he's doubled his take-home pay in just two years.'

'While senators are prohibited from accepting more than $29,000 in outside income, Warnock raked in $120,000 last year from Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta—but dodged the income cap by taking most of that money as a "housing allowance." He was also hit with election finance complaints in July for using campaign funds to fight personal lawsuits that predated his run for office.'

'Warnock’s ex-wife Oulèye Ndoye filed a custody suit as he left her "financially strapped" by saddling her with unpaid childcare expenses even as his "income has substantially increased."'

I'll say.

Latest Polls
PA - GOP trails by 4
WI - GOP trails by 2
AZ - GOP trails by 8
NC - Tied
OH GOP leads by 5.

I don't know how leading by 5 is "struggling" if they are GOP, but leading by 2, 4, or tied is doing great if you are a Dem. Seems like maybe you are seeing what you want to see.

It's also weird how you left out NV were the Trump endorsed candidate leads by 3.

 

Here’s RCP on Nevada, Cortez Masto leads in 5 of the 8 polls.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...evada_senate_laxalt_vs_cortez_masto-7392.html


The 3 latest polls taken in July/August, 2 have Cortez Masto up by 3 and 7 points with Laxalt up by 3 in the one that has him ahead. I think incumbency will carry Masto to the win. Yes, RCP does have Vance up by 3.7 points. Vance should win there. North Carolina, the only poll in August has Budd and Beasley tied. All the rest are old and pretty much irrelevant. North Carolina is a pure tossup.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...rth_carolina_senate_budd_vs_beasley-7588.html


RCP has Fetterman up by almost 8 points in Pennsylvania. Although Emerson had his lead down to 4, but the poll taken the day before had Fetterman up by 13, Franklin and Marshall. I think PA is a Democratic gain.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...pennsylvania_senate_oz_vs_fetterman-7695.html


RCP has Johnson in WI up by 4.3 points. Johnson isn’t seen too favorably by those who live in Wisconsin.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/wi/wisconsin_senate_johnson_vs_barnes-7758.html


Hence, WI is my 2nd Republican held seat to go to the Democrats. Walker is a very poor candidate in GA with all Warnock’s faults. Warnock comes across as smooth, whereas Walker is more of a “What the heck,” candidate. I expect Warnock to win as Kelly will in AZ. I think that about covers the close states. I’m still going with the Democrats gaining 3-4 governorships with the Republicans gaining 18-20 house seats.


But like I say, my caveat, this is as of today. Tomorrow things could change. But I don’t expect much change. But who knows? The Democrats seem to have the momentum today and over the last month. The GOP has seen their 2.5-point lead in July in the generic drop to 0.8 today. Time will tell.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

 

True enough, I was looking at the latest two, which is quite a split, but, I did note that the poll showing the GOP lead is twice the size of the one showing the D lead, but, certainly it's a race.

 

This far out, I go by the numbers of today which means if the election were held today, not in November as I don’t know what the numbers will be then. Then these numbers are read differently by different folks. You could be more correct than I or vice versa. Again, time will provide the answer.


I like RCP and their averages. You never know when a single poll can be an outlier. Then again, RCP has this nasty habit of including a lot of out of date polls in their average. Each of us takes his best swag, so we’ll see which one of us comes the closest after November. I’m still going with the Democrats retaining the senate with a gain of 1 or 2 seats. The Republicans retake control of the house with a net gain of 18-20 seats while the democrats add 3-4 governorships.

 

There is the “go-to” election interference that the democrats pioneered in California: you boost the weakest republican candidate with money, publicity, and astro-turf interviews to push him ahead of the strongest republican candidate. Then in the general, funding switches to the democrat, creating an unequal contest.
It’s legal and is used in every California election with good success.
Even if the Republicans win those seats, the candidate quality suffers - you have the vote but not the discipline.

One more thing: the race really hasn’t started yet, so it’s pretty much the sound of one hand clapping.

 

Time To Puncture Fetterman's Fake 'Blue-Collar' Image

Fetterman supports Biden's reckless inflation ignitinh 'spending binges—including the so-called “Inflation Reduction Act,” which is projected to further aggravate inflation and expand the size of the Internal Revenue Service. Fetterman is' all in on 'Democrats’ climate extremism. He repeatedly called for a complete ban on fracking in Pennsylvania, the nation’s second-largest natural gas producer, calling it a “stain” on the state. Such a ban would cost Pennsylvania more than 600,000 jobs and remove $261 billion from the state’s economy. That’s hardly a platform designed to help Pennsylvania workers.'

They can learn to code!

Fetterman loves violent felons far more than he lives their victims. Fetterman likes low bail 'for arrested arsonists and rioters.' He's a big fan 'of sanctuary cities, decriminalizing drugs “across the board,” and supports “safe” heroin injection sites. Additionally, Fetterman is a pro-abortion extremist—referring to the practice as a “sacred” right that should be legal “without any qualification whatsoever.” He also supports men participating in women’s sports and the teaching of far-left gender theory in K-12 classrooms.'

Not a good fit for much of PA.

AZ Gov latest poll, GOP +1
WI Latest - tied

 

Trump can still cost the GOP elections, inevitably promoting his fawning kiss-asses rather than electable conservatives.

Perdue and Loeffler?

Trump Is Making Georgia All About Himself

Trump’s Failed Georgia Strategy Costs GOP the Senate

Trump tries to shift blame for Georgia defeat to other Republicans


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The investigation into Donald Trump’s handling of classified national security records is forcing Republicans into a strained defense during a pre-midterm sprint in which they’d much rather be talking about Joe Biden.

Some top Republicans acknowledge the growing angst and concern, as it’s become clearer that Trump may have been warehousing some of America’s most sensitive secrets in an unsecured basement — and even refused to turn them over when the National Archives and Justice Department tried to recover them. One top Republican fundraiser asked to describe the mood among donors, said, “There is enormous frustration.”

After having decried the FBI’s search of the ex-president’s home, many Trump defenders went silent upon the release... of the probable-cause affidavit that revealed the extent of Trump’s efforts to hold onto the top-secret documents...

“The question is, is there willingness to express that frustration,” the fundraiser added. “I don’t know the answer to that. But there is real frustration, and with the exception of people who are too stupid to understand the need to be frustrated, it is nearly universal.”

[https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/30/trump-forces-republicans-off-script-again-00054121]​

 

to stay with the baseball metaphors,,, nobody bats a 1000%

 

Herbert Hoover also struck out when he lost his Party control of the Executive, the Senate, and the House in his one at-bat.

(Hoover's the one who left office without absconding with classified government documents that needed to be recovered in the interest of national security.)

 

The RP seldom gives voters good positive reasons for voting for its candidates. But repeating "DP Sucks!" is often enough for an RP win.

 

I you go back through recent history, the four most recent wave elections, you’ll find out the party out of power doesn’t have to stand for anything, say anything, do anything. They just have to be their when independents get dissatisfied or angry with the party in power. Be an alternative to the party in power is all that is needed in our two-party system. This was the case in 2006, 2010 and 2018. More or less angry voters at Bush, Obama and Trump. 1994 was a bit different, but not a whole lot. Gingrich and company came up with their contract with America, but it was angry voters at Bill Clinton that was the main reason.


Moral of this story is don’t go making independents mad at you if you want to retain power in Washington. If they get mad, there’s only one alternative to the party in power in our two-party system. Most folks don’t understand this.

 

Better still: Offer them money for their vote. Works for the DP.

At this point the RP would probably have to offer the productive working class a great deal of money and power to eliminate the DP as a political force in America -- should have done that in 1865.
Which is not to say that the RP could not gain more political power than it will know what to do with in November depending primarily on gas prices and inflation generally.

 

John Fetterman once signed pledge to ban fracking, which supports tens of thousands of PA jobs.

Not a good fit for many in PA.

'Fetterman, Pennsylvania's current lieutenant governor, agreed to co-sponsor the Keep It In The Ground Act — federal legislation banning new oil, gas and coal leasing on federal lands — and support a complete moratorium on fracking in Pennsylvania.'

'The social media post included a picture of Fetterman signing the pledge and a separate picture of his signature on the document.'

JOHN FETTERMAN CALLS FRACKING A 'STAIN' ON PENNSYLVANIA

'Fetterman said he was opposed to and never supported fracking, during multiple interviews in 2018. He remarked that he wanted to see the fracking industry "transition out."'

Fetterman is also very felon-friendly. He wants convicted murders to be released and their records expunged so that they can buy firearms, be involved in construction service where they can enter unsuspecting customers' homes, vote, serve on juries and even service in high office.


Felon-friendly, hates fracking.

 

Nail-Biter in Nevada Could Fall to the Triumphant GOP

'Cortez Masto a “disaster for our economy.”

“Her rubber-stamp support for Biden’s big spending proposals saddled our state with 15.4% inflation, costing each Nevada family $10,000 this year. This is making day-to-day life unaffordable for Nevadans and they’re enthusiastic about an opportunity for a new direction,” Freimuth said.'

Nevadians sure didn't average wage gains of $10,000 a year. Folks are really hurting.

RCP projects that the GOP picks up this seat.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/elections-map-rcp-projection.html

 

I don’t know when that map occurred, but here’s today’s map and standings from RCP which list 8 tossup states. AZ: Kelly (D), GA: Warnock (D), NH: Hassan (D), NC: Open (R), NV: Cortez Masto (D), PA: Open (R), WI: Johnson (R), OH: Open (R)


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/elections-map.html


RCP has Kelly up by 6, Warnock by 1, Hassan by 4, Budd by 0.6, Cortez Masto by 1.7, Fetterman by 6.5, Vance by 3.7 and Barnes by 4.3.


The trend has been in the Democrats favor since the middle of July. I think Kelly, Hassan, Warnock and Cortez Masto will hold on to their seats while Fetterman and Barnes win against Oz and Johnson. The Generic congressional ballot has seen the Republicans drop from a 2.6 lead in July to having a tie today. Not that I expect the Democrats to retain control of the House, I don’t. I think the GOP regains control of the house with a 15-17 seat gain.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

 

You are okay with risking America to semi-facism and the destruction of our democracy in order to win an election! I knew it was all lies.

 

Open that up, that's the first tab on the Left. The next tab over is their projection. The first is the nowcast, the second the forcast. They clearly expect the electorate to steadily move, bit by bit, toward the GOP over the next 9 weeks.

This is generic so far:


They seem to be expecting the something similar to the 2014 pattern over the next 9 weeks.



More here: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/a...ional_ballot_and_recent_history_148138.html#2