Trump's NY re-elect numbers are brutal....

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by Statistikhengst, Oct 16, 2019.

  1. vman12

    vman12 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    "Hypocrisy"
     
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  2. Spim

    Spim Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    lol, ok that works, I thought it was some clever play on schiftt, couldn't put it together.
     
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  3. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    This is factually inaccurate.

    In all of our history, there have only been two 49-state sweeps and before we had 50 states, there was only one 46 of 48 state sweep:

    In 1972, Nixon took every state except Massachusetts. His opponent, McGovern, came from South Dakota, not Massachusetts.
    However, it is true that in 1984, Reagan swept every state except Minnesota, which was indeed former Vice President Mondale's home state.
    In 1936, FDR took every state except Vermont and New Hampshire. His opponent, Alf Landon, was from Kansas.
     
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  4. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Technically yes, but there have been several more 48-state and 47-state sweeps.

    The point was even where a candidate almost totally loses, he still has the support of his home state.
    It was just a generalization.
     
    Last edited: Nov 6, 2019
  5. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Hmmm, not really.

    In 1896, Democrat William Jennings Bryan won his home state of Nebraska in the election against William McKinley (of Ohio), but in 1900 he lost his home state in his second attempt against McKinley. However, in 1908, he won his home state against William Howard Taft (Bryan, the "silver-tongued orator") was the Democratic nominee 3 times between 1896 and 1908 .

    In 1904, Democrat Alton Parker lost his home state of New York to Theodore Roosevelt.

    In 1912, BOTH Bull-Mooser Theodore Roosevelt AND Republican William Howard Taft lost their states of New York and Ohio, respectively, to Woodrow Wilson.

    In 1916, national election loser Republican Charles Hughes carried his home state of New York, but incumbent President Woodrow Wilson, who was narrowly re-elected, lost his home state of New Jersey.

    In 1920, Democrat Cox lost his home state of Ohio. To be fair, it was also Warren Harding's home state.

    In 1924, Democrat John Davis lost his home state of West Virginia to Calvin Coolidge.

    In 1928, Democrat Alfred Smith lost his home state of New York to Herbert Hoover.

    in 1932, incumbent Herbert Hoover lost his re-election bid and his home state of California.

    In 1936, Republican Alf Landon lost his home state of Kansas.

    In 1940, Wendell Willkie carried his home state of Indiana. He as the only challenger to FDR to carry his home ste.

    in 1944, Republican Thomas Dewey lost his home state of New York but in 1948, he won it against Harry Truman.

    In both 1952 and 1956, Adlai E. Stevenson III lost his home state of Illinois to Dwight D. Eisenhower.

    -----------------------------------------------
    As of 1960, things changed.

    In 1960, Richard Nixon (just barely) carried his home state of California against John F. Kennedy.
    In 1964, Barry Goldwater (just barely) carried his home state of Arizona against Lyndon B. Johnson
    In 1968, Humphrey carried his home state of Minnesota against Nixon.
    In 1972, George McGovern lost his home state of South Dakota to Nixon.
    In 1976, unelected incumbent Gerald Ford carried his home state of Michigan against Jimmy Carter.
    In 1980, defeated incumbent Jimmy Carter carried his home state of Georgia against Reagan.
    In 1984, former VP Walter Mondale /just barely) carried his home state of Minnesota against Reagan.
    In 1988, Michael Dukakis carried his home state of Massachusetts against George H. W. Bush (41).
    In 1992, defeated incumbent George H. W. Bush barely carried both of his home states of Texas and Maine against Bill Clinton.
    In 1996, Bob Dole carried his home state of Kansas against Bill Clinton.
    In 2000, then VP Al Gore lost his home state of Tennessee against George W. Bush (43).
    In 2004, John Kerry carried his home state of Massachusetts against George H. W. Bush (43).
    In 2008, John McCain carried his home state of Arizona against Barack Obama.
    In 2012, Mitt Romney carried his home state of Utah against Barack Obama.
    In 2016, Hillary Clinton, who won in the NPV but lost in the EC, won her home state of New York against Trump, who of course, at that time, was also from New York.

    In the 16 presidential elections from 1896-1956, the national loser also lost his home state in 11 of those 16 cycles.
    In the 15 presidential elections since 1960, the national loser also lost his home state in only 2 of those 15 cycles.

    This is an interesting point to make. What big thing happened in the 1950s, leading to 1960? Answer: the advent of Television. Before the television age, practically no one cared about the home state of a presidential nominee. Since the advent of TV, it's been one of those interesting media coverage tidbits.....
     
    Last edited: Nov 7, 2019
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