1. Following are excerpts from a February 4, 2010 article headlined "Vietnam Enlists Allies to Stave Off China’s Reach" by Edward Wong of The New York Times at http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/05/world/asia/05hanoi.html?_r=0 (Begin excerpts) ....quietly, Vietnam has been doing more than just complaining; it has laid the groundwork for another strategy to pry the islands from China’s grasp. Vietnam is pushing hard behind the scenes to bring more foreign players into negotiations so that China will have to bargain in a multilateral setting with all Southeast Asian nations that have territorial claims in the South China Sea. This goes against China’s preference, which is to negotiate one on one with each country. In other words, Vietnam wants all parties at the same table to stave off China, the behemoth. This strategy of “internationalizing” the issue is one that smaller Asian countries like Vietnam may adopt more often as they wrangle with the Chinese juggernaut on many fronts. The thinking is: As China’s political power in the world expands, smaller nations will gain leverage over China only if they force it to negotiate in multilateral forums. Vietnamese officials “are internationalizing the issue, and they’re doing it in a quiet way, not in a direct way,” said Carlyle A. Thayer, a scholar of Southeast Asia and maritime security at the Australian Defense Force Academy. “They say they want to solve it peacefully, but let the international community raise the issue.” Analysts say a big test for this strategy will come this year, as Vietnam takes over the leadership of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or Asean. Vietnam is likely to use its position to try to persuade the countries to join territorial negotiations with China, analysts say. In November, Vietnam held a conference in Hanoi, its capital, where 150 scholars and officials from across Asia came to discuss disputes in the South China Sea — an opening salvo in the new strategy, analysts say. “The kind of thing that I took away was that developments in the South China Sea had either deteriorated or had the potential to deteriorate,” said Mr. Thayer, who attended the workshop.... For the Vietnamese, the South China Sea dispute is so emotional that it unites virtually all of them under an anti-China nationalist banner, even those in exile who usually abhor Vietnam’s ruling Communist Party. In Houston, a South Vietnamese enclave usually hostile to the Vietnamese government, a pop band proudly calls itself Hoang Sa, the Vietnamese name for the Paracels.... (End excerpts) 2. Following are excerpts from the article headlined "Shift as Vietnam marks South China Sea battle" by Nga Pham in BBC News at http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-25709833 (Begin excerpts) Forty years ago dozens of Vietnamese soldiers were killed in a bloody battle with Chinese troops over disputed islands in the South China Sea. This year (2014), for the first time, Vietnam's state media is publicly marking the event, printing numerous articles on the battle.... The current government renewed Vietnam's claim to the Paracels (Hoang Sa in Vietnamese) after the Vietnam war ended, but to date has rarely mentioned the 1974 naval clash. The event is not even included in modern history textbooks. Up to 1975 the Paracel archipelago was claimed by the US-backed Saigon government. At the time Hanoi did not protest China's occupation of the islands nor - for a long time - recognise the South Vietnamese soldiers' loss of life - because they were considered by the communist North to be an enemy army.... This change of heart is clearly visible in Vietnamese media. National newspapers like Thanh Nien and Tuoi Tre have in recent weeks been running a series of reports including detailed accounts by witnesses on how the Paracels were taken by China by force and descriptions of heroic actions by South Vietnamese sailors. Public meetings have been held to commemorate the battle and there are calls to recognise the "martyrdom" of the fallen soldiers and offer support to their families. Just months ago, such moves would have been unheard of. The authorities in Hanoi have been extremely careful not to offend Vietnam's giant neighbour - and are also fully aware that nationalist sentiment can get out of hand. Anti-China protests in which participants have shouted slogans such as "The Paracels belong to Vietnam" have been quickly dispersed in the past. As Vietnamese media remains tightly controlled by the Communist Party, the green light to address the issue of the battle may have come from above. Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung reportedly told a meeting with leading Vietnamese historians at the end of December that the government was planning activities to commemorate the 1974 event, as well as the 1979 border war with China. He also urged to include "these historical facts" in school textbooks... Vietnamese media have raised the tone of their reports on China's new fishing regulation, which Hanoi has called "illegal and invalid". But "it is the reported instigation of Vietnamese authorities encouraging Vietnamese fishermen to fish in the waters around the Paracels that could lead to conflict", warns Prof Thayer (N.B. Emeritus Professor Carlyle Thayer from the University of New South Wales in Australia) (End excerpts) 3. During the Vietnam War, the North Vietnamese regime kept silent and passive over China's sovereignty over the Paracels and the Spratleys. After the forced reunification of Vietnam in May 1975, the Vietnamese regime publicly renewed its claim to the Paracels. In recent years, particularly this year, Vietnam's claim for the Paracels has become increasingly strident. Virtually all the Vietnamese, at home or abroad, are getting caught in the nationalist fervour. They all rally behind the Vietnamese regime on the Paracels issue. In Houston, a South Vietnamese enclave usually hostile to the Vietnamese communist regime, a pop band proudly calls itself Hoang Sa, the Vietnamese name for the Paracels. In contrast, there is no Chinese choir or pop band in China or overseas calling itself Xisha or Nansha. The number of activists and bloggers per head of population advancing Vietnam's national interests at home and abroad could put any bigger country to shame. In contrast to their Chinese counterparts, most Vietnamese activists blog in English, French or other languages besides their mother tongue. Hence Vietnam has the upper hand in its global propaganda campaign to reclaim the Paracels.. Following South Vietnam's crushing defeat in the Battle of the Paracel Islands, it is natural to regard any Vietnamese bid to reclaim or recapture the islands from China as hopeless as a salted fish that has been left high and dry on the beach of the Paracels. There is an idiom "salted fish comes back to life" used by the Cantonese to depict the reversal of a hopeless situation. Vietnam’s remarkable turnaround on the Parcels dispute in recent years shows that the Vietnamese salted fish has come back to life indeed. It is impossible for Vietnam to recapture the Paracels without outside help but its persistent attempts to pry the islands from China’s grasp by whatever means at its disposal, such as internationalizing the issue with its powerful global propaganda machine, could prove a big headache to China in the long run. . What brings the Vietnamese salted fish back to life in recent years? What causes the Vietnamese regime's drastic shift on the Paracels? The following are possible factors: a) Taking advantage of America's pivot to Asia, crafty Vietnam attempts to leave an opening for a continued role for the US and other regional powers -- a reflection of the rapidly-emerging strategic relationship between the two former enemies. The Financial Times reported that Vietnam is considering the re-opening of the strategic Cam Ranh Bay harbour to foreign navies, including the US, to counter China’s assertiveness. "America now is an alternative to China," an unnamed Vietnamese economist said. "To counter the Chinese threat we must lean towards the West -- not because we like the West, but because the Chinese Army is 2.5 million strong." b) Vietnam, which has been alone wrangling quietly with China on the Paracels issue, suddenly finds a willing partner in the Philippines. c) Vietnam also sees the possibility of partnering with Japan in its confrontiation against China as the Diaoyu Islands dispute escalates in recent years. In short, crafty Vietnam is adopting the strategy of drawing the US, Japan, the Philippines and other regional powers into the equation. In line with this strategy, it cunningly invites American energy companies to engage in oil exploration off Vietnam in waters China considers its own. d) Le Luong Minh, a veteran diplomat came from Vietnam's Foreign Ministry and served as ambassador to the United Nations, took over the rotating position of ASEAN secretary-general from Thailand's Surin Pitsuwan in 2013 for a non-renewable term of office of five years. Crafty Vietnam is pushing hard behind the scenes to bring more foreign players into negotiations so that China will have to bargain in a multilateral setting with all Southeast Asian nations that have territorial claims in the South China Sea. It successfully forced South China Sea issues back onto the agenda of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), despite Beijing's opposition. e) Crafty Vietnam is adopting the strategy of “internationalizing” the Paracels dispute. Acting in concert with Vietnamese nationalists at home and abroad, Vietnam is trying to put international pressure on China. It has already set its propaganda machine in full swing. From the above five factors, we can see why Vietnam could stave off stronger foes in its long history of wars. Vietnamese hero, Gen. Ly Thuong Kiet (1077 A.D.), was boastful enough to proclaim Vietnam in a poem as "the Emperor of the South as it stands written forever in the Book of Heaven". This reminds us of the Chinese idiom "ye lang zi da" which is translated literally as “Yelang thinks highly of itself”. This idiom one refers to someone who has a high, but misguided, opinion of his own worth. According to the story of the idiom, in the Han Dynasty, there was a tiny country called Yelang on the southwestern border. Small though it was, its ruler was quite proud of his country, thinking it big and powerful. Once, a Han envoy visited Yelang. The ruler asked him: "Which is bigger, Han or Yelang?" Later this idiom came to be used to refer to those who are capable of nothing yet are conceited. How will China deal with the Vietnamese salted fish that has come back to life? The following steps could be taken by China: Sun Zi, a great ancient Chinese strategist, recommended winning through intellect then brute force in his remarkable military treatise, "The Art of War". There were many examples in Chinese history illustrating the application of the strategy. For instance, Zhuge Liang (181AD–234AD), a chancellor of the state of Shu Han during the Three Kingdoms period, used stratagems to win wars. He is recognised as the greatest and most accomplished strategist of his era, and has been compared to Sun Zi. China could refer to its history to find ways to counter Vietnam's strategy of making a stealthy comeback to the Paracels. Firstly, it has to step up efforts to counter Vietnam's worldwide propaganda campaign. Secondly, it should use the trade weapon or apply economic sanctions to press Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung for an official apology and compensation for Chinese nationals killed or injured and damages inflicted on Chinese companies in the state-sanctioned riots. "Vietnam has an inescapable responsibility for the actions of the lawless elements who attacked Chinese businesses and individuals," Foreign Minister Wang Yi. So far the Vietnamese premier has uttered not a single word of apology to China and other countries that suffered heavy casualties and losses in the anti-China riots. In his text message, sent late Thursday (May 15) and into Friday (May 16) to subscribers via major state-owned cellphone operators, he urged patriotic fervour but did not directly condemn the riots. Vietnamese looters attacked citizens and factories from several Asian countries, with Taiwan apparently bearing the brunt in the anti-China riots. More than 20 people were killed and about a hundred people were sent to the hospital. Business people returning to Taiwan on special flights early Friday (16 May) morning said they had to bribe police for safe passage out of the hotel and that police only put on a show of force for the benefit of the international media. Thirdly, Vietnam is emboldened by US pivot to Asia. Fighting fire with fire, one way for China to counter US increasing naval presence in the region is to collaborate "in principle" with Russia to deploy warships to each other's port but the vessels will not be permanently based and the crews will live aboard during ship visits. Fourthly, the Vietnamese salted fish would be really left high and dry if it could be isolated from all the fresh fish. It is good for a country to have as few enemies as possible, and of course, best to have no enemies at all. Han Wudi, the fifth emperor of the Western Han Dynasty (206BC-8AD) and reigned from 141BC to 86BC, certainly recognised the disadvantage of standing alone against many enemies and the advantage of forging friendly ties with neighbouring countries and consolidating the Chinese borders in his war campaigns against China's powerful foe at that time. Thus in 139 BC, Han Wudi sent Zhang Qian as an envoy on a diplomatic expedition to Central Asia to try to find allies against the Xiongnu Empire. A delaying strategy, leaving territorial disputes with multiple countries unresolved with no time limit is tantamount to speculating in commodity futures with no stop-loss order. China must stay on guard against the formation of a counterbalancing coalition, especially one led by the US. It is in China's interest to resolve its territorial disputes peacefully with as many countries as possible without delay. However, with regard to the Paracels, China's stance must remain consistent: "China made its position very clear at the outset; China occupies the Paracels, they belong to China and there is nothing to negotiate."
