I'm honestly asking because it's really an open question (forewarning: find a map so you know where I'm talking about when I mention place names). On the one hand, Russian-backed forces are poised to completely surround Aleppo and the Rebel Northern Front seems to be utterly collapsing, with the US-backed SDF opportunistically hitting the rebels in flank and currently being in a position to cut the Azaz-Tal Rifaat road, the main supply route from Turkey, which would force any supplies heading into Syria to use side roads, virtually dooming the rebels south of Tal Rifaat (this is assuming reports that the SDF seized the Menagh Airforce Base are true; we'll need to wait a while to confirm it). Indeed, the SDF is best positioned to take over the sole border crossing with Turkey in this area of Syria and doom the northern rebels; whether they will seriously fight the rebels for it or continue snatching away abandoned or weakly defended areas remains to be seen.The Syrian Army, for its part, needs to move quickly, or at the very least shore up the corridor they've conquered. Their distraction with cutting the Rebel supply route has allowed the Islamic State to attack the territory they attacked the rebels from and they're being pushed towards Aleppo. The IS likely won't succeed in surrounding the Syrian forces but it will require a recommitment of forces to turn this back; in fact, I suspect northward advancement will have to be sacrificed to shore up the line.The battle of Aleppo is still going to be a net loss for the IS though, as part of their forces are currently being surrounded east of the city and will likely be wiped out. The Syrian army will mainly attack south to occupy the land west of Aleppo and thus completely surround it; rooting all the rebels out of the city will take a while but it will happen eventually. Given all this, the question of what the SDF will do regarding Azaz and the Turkish border crossing is a mystery. No one expected them to actively intervene in the fighting, and simply wait for the rest of the SDF to link up with them from the west. But given how quickly things are moving they may be anticipating that if they don't move now, Assad may reach the border first, either through Azaz or Al-Bab, which the Syrian Army is currently fighting its way towards. This would prevent the Kurdish dream of making all their territory contiguous. Meanwhile, part of the main SDF force, under the command of a couple dozen US commandos and with fresh supplies, is advancing towards Manbij, the capture of which would cut the Jarabulus - al-Raqqa highway. Once the Syrian Army capture Al-Bab, this puts both forces on direct paths to seizing the border crossings at Jarabulus and Ar Ra'i. This would cut the IS off from all foreign supplies and effectively doom them; ideally for the Kurds, they would swoop in behind the IS in Al-Bab and take the Ar Ra'i crossing before the Syrian Army gets there, then march east to join their comrades; however, this is a considerable distance and would pit them against a considerable number of rebel and IS forces; I am not entirely convinced they'll be able to do it. The question now is: will Erdogan act before this happens? It is well known Erdogan does not want a Kurdish state on his border because of their connections to the PKK (and to be fair, they are allied with the PKK), and he doesn't want Assad to defeat the rebels. But if the Syrians and the Kurds clear the Turkish border and cut off the rebels and the IS from the supplies Turkey either directly gives them or allows to be smuggled across, Turkey's plans are basically kaput. Normally I'd say a country would in this case accept defeat, but we're dealing with Erdogan who has proven himself to be capable of rash, prideful action. The SDF already violated his "red line" by crossing the Euphrates, which he warned them not to do. The question is, will Manbij, Azaz and Al-Bab be a step too far? Will the imminent victory of Assad and the Kurds spur Erdogan into creating the "safe zone" he always boasted about, a 30km deep occupation zone along the border. The problem is, when the plan was proposed, the Syrian government wasn't near the occupation zone. Now they've entered it in spots and look to press further into it. If Turkey invaded and mopped up the IS from behind, what would happen when they meet the Syrian Army? In fact, it's less the ground forces, which are slower, and more the air forces: the Syrians and Turks have shot each other's planes down before. If Turkish planes started flying overhead, would the Syrians shoot? What if Russian aircraft were in the area, as they usually are? Would they shoot? Erdogan has never exactly stated what the rules of engagement would be against Russian and Syrian forces. The US doesn't want him to do it, and it is highly unlikely the US would back him up if he started shooting at the Kurds or the Syrians, and especially not the Russians. He'd be going it alone (well, with Saudi Arabi and the Gulf States too I guess). I guess the real question is: is Erdogan the kind of man who would risk that? That will determine whether he lives up to his rhetoric and invades. Because from all indicators, if he doesn't, his puppets will lose, guaranteed.
ISIS launches counter-attacks in Manbij... Islamic State launches counter-attacks on US-backed forces, Syrian army 21 Jun 2016 - The Islamic State group launched a counter-attack against fighters trying to capture the Syrian city of Manbij on Monday, inflicting heavy casualties on the U.S.-backed forces, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights and the militants said.
Granny says, "Dat's right - can't say dey weren't warned... US-backed Syria Fighters Give ISIS 48 Hours to Leave Town Jul 21, 2016 — U.S.-backed Syrian fighters on Thursday gave Islamic State militants 48 hours to leave an encircled town near the Turkish border without a fight, a last-ditch effort to protect civilian lives, according to a statement issued by the group. Related: Fighting in north Syria town after IS ignore offer to leave July 22, 2016 — An opposition activist group and a Kurdish official say fighting is taking place in a northern Syrian town held by the Islamic State group after the militants did not respond to an offer to withdraw from the encircled town within 48 hours. See also: Tightening the net around Aleppo Thu, 21 Jul 2016 - Surrounded by government forces, the Syrian city of Aleppo could be facing its last gasp after holding out for four years, writes Diana Darke.
All kinds of info in ISIS Intelligence treasure trove... US Fighting in Syrian City Yields Trove of ISIS Intelligence Jul 27, 2016 | WASHINGTON The U.S. is exploiting an enormous amount of digital information about the Islamic State obtained by Syrian rebels fighting for control of the city of Manbij, a spokesman for the American-led military coalition said Wednesday. See also: US General Says Afghan ISIS Linked to Main Group Jul 27, 2016 The Islamic State group presence in Afghanistan is directly linked to the parent organization in Iraq and Syria, the U.S. Army general in charge of American and NATO troops in Afghanistan said on Wednesday.
Location of Islamic version of Armageddon... Will Upcoming Fight in Syria Usher in Armageddon? 21 Sept.`16 — There's a small town in Syria where ancient Islamic prophecies say a fierce battle will bring about the end of days, and Turkish troops, U.S. military advisers and vetted Syrian opposition fighters appear to be heading straight for it. See also: Smashing Islamic State Could Unleash New Terror Threat September 21, 2016 — Success in the battle against Middle East insurgents, such as the Islamic State group and al-Qaida affiliates, is going to lead to a new challenge, diplomats and intelligence officials are warning.
