China's economy to overtake US in next four years, says OECD

I have refuted your point, you claimed there were 600 million middle class there and there are not. You said that the World Bank were forecasting 5% growth and I provided a link to IMF contradicting them. The rest of your post is just your opinion of events and I have given you my opinion. About abortions, you may not have noticed but China has a population problem,they have to have laws in place to combat that. Would you prefer that they just let everyone have kids and the population hit 3 billion and then they cannot feed them all? Would you prefer them to starve to death? You never answered if you have actually lived there, so I am taking that you never.

 

That can be answered with ease.
Say you are a major of a Chainees city or district and you have orders to grow your city by 5%.
Alas the economy is slowwing and the (*)(*)(*)(*) Europians get into depression and stop buying your garbage.
What do you do ?
You take a loan, say 5Billion$, (this does not reflect in the growth report) and build a new district.
Now the new (yet empty) district is written down in the books as 5Billion$ growth.
You meet your growth requirements and get tons of income, but you sell the future.

Now, you may think I imagine things. Well, look at the reports from China and think again.
China spend 70% of its GDP on infrastructure. Yes, 70% !!!!
Now it maybe anybody guess, how much of it is real and how much of it is for nothing, just to boost the numbers.

 

I wonder how much China spends on its people, if the people can not buy an apartment in these ghost new towns and trying to leave the country.
The Chinese are friendly and inventive people, but how the Chinese government relate to its people deserves a separate topic.
Do you see many posters on this forum from China?

 

Most of them do not have the English language skills to post to this forum.

 

China is a one trick pony. Their entire economy depends almost exclusivly on exports. China has HUGE issues with their ginormous population and how to employ them. If they don't grow at least 6% every year their economy will fall apart and it is impossible for them to maintain that kind of growth in perpetuity.

Nothing has changed politically in this country so there will be no difference in how the government runs things compared to the last four years so the US isn't going to grow any faster and will in fact slide into a recession. China might pass us buy although I don't buy the four year deadline considering that China is suffering just like the rest of the world right now.

 

The IMF is entitled to use their methodology, like the World Bank is entitled to use theirs. The IMF has traditionally been bullish on China and India because they have interests in maintaining the monetary policy status quo. The World Bank is pessimistic because they're more interested in bailouts of emerging economies and stagnant economies. It is quite telling that The Economist is uncertain about China economically with the power transition.

If China is so great economically, then they could handle a population surge, right? If nothing can get them down because they're an economic powerhouse, they can just import more food from the US, Russia, and Africa. And you support forcing women to get abortions and causing mass democide of female fetuses? If the ends justify the means, then that sets a dangerous precedent on what governments can do. But I have a feeling you don't mind authoritarian policies if they occur to someone else. The American founders would refer to you as a "sunshine patriot."

I've never lived in China, but I've also never lived in colonial America. If we limited our scope of knowledge to where we've been and what time we live in, our knowledge would be stagnant. However, I currently am working with a Chinese-American expert on raw material imports to China and have unfortunately had to write a thesis-length paper on civil-military relations in China.

 

It's just ridiculous .For example ,Youtube is officially banned in China.

 

What a load of rubbish. They are loving their economy to domestic consumerism and with 1.3 billion consumers they are going to do just fine.

 

Your argument is done and now you are just making up really stupid stuff, I mean your claim that if China is so great economically then they should handle a population surge is a joke. I am sure the Chinese government know what they are doing and they do not need your advice as they have advanced their country from a backwater in 1978 to the 2nd biggest economy in the world today and soon to be the first.

 

Press TV is blocked in the UK from broadcasting. What point are you trying to make?

 

I was playing with you (I apologise for it) because you are ignoring the fact that the GDP growth is reducing despite the massivew spend of the bank reserves in China. Real estate market is in serious trouble. You seem to ignore the fact that the global recession will effect any country that depends on export especially those that do not have much natural resources.

"The central bank has lowered the amount of money that banks need to keep in reserve three times in the past few months in order to increase bank lending."

"It has cut interest rates twice since June to reduce the burden on businesses and other borrowers."

These measures are the methods used when a country is seeing problems

 

Yeah of course you were now that I have proven you wrong

 

Oh dear. I see you are still ignoring the details..

 

You claimed that China was in a recession and I proved that it was not with graphs and everything. You were wrong, get over it and move on.

http://www.politicalforum.com/lates...t-four-years-says-oecd-14.html#post1061939279

 

Google blocked in China. It's there happens sometimes.
Why do you hate the Chinese?

 

Oh please go away with your silly posts.

 

It's not surprising that China will have the world's largest economy soon. They do have a rather large chunk of the world's population.

As Iriemon mentioned, however, their growth rate will likely slow down during the course of this decade.

Globalization naturally raises the standard of living for developing nations, and the ones leading the charge right now are China, India, and Brazil.

 

Change in GDP growth:
Q1 2011 minus 0.1%
Q2 2011 minus 0.2%
Q3 2011 minus 0.4%
Q4 2011 minus 0.2%
Q1 2012 minus 0.8%
Q2 2012 minus 0.3%
Q3 2012 minus 0.1%

Are you going to ignore this, as was posted in the post you have referenced above before the throwaway recession remark that you decided to concentrate on ignoring the elephant(s) in the room?

 

Your claim that China is in recession was proven wrong here. Get over it and move on.
http://www.politicalforum.com/lates...t-four-years-says-oecd-14.html#post1061939279

 

One of the elephants in the room that will be ignored:

Further to this
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...skyscraper-cities-STILL-completely-empty.html

 

I'm not the one who thinks the Chinese government is beyond reproach and everything is peachy keen in China, that forcing abortions is morally acceptable to keep the population in check. There are other methods to keep the population down, like *gasp* birth control and education. But the Chinese government isn't big on sex education. So they throw the fetus out with the bath water by state mandate.

I'm not pretending to give the Chinese government advice, I'm echoing concerns raised by economists. But I guess that means I want to impose my views on the government!

 

do keep up to date. the growing chinese middle class is not only starting to buy a lot of the produce, but they are also starting to spend big overseas. even if the majority of the chinese remain poor, they will still be a pretty big market.

 

Your claims have been dismissed as untrue, your predictions have been disputed by the IMF and your bit about abortions has also been covered. Why you continue to come back is beyond me.

 

Yep! And that's not all! Europe's economy will overtake us by 2020!
So much for "run away capitalism!"

 

I think the EU economy has been bigger than the US for a while.