The North Pole just surged above freezing in the dead of winter, stunning scientists

Temperature is one element of climate. Taking the mean of anything is just a mathematical operation. There's no concept of it being smart or dumb. But, if you still think it's dumb then what metric would you use to describe whether the Earth is warming or cooling?

I'm not following you at all. What exactly is it that you don't like about using a global mean temperature?

Is it the data in the graph or the color scale that you think is fraudulent? Can you post an example and explain how the creators committed fraud and what you would have done definitely?

That's an interesting perspective? So is rainfall/snowfall climate? What about humidity? Cloud cover?

 

I'm saying that there is a lot evidence to support the idea that the global mean temperature is higher now than during the MWP. I wouldn't call it an abundance of evidence, but it's at least as convincing as the evidence that shows otherwise.

Pre-industrial temperatures are derived from proxy records. They do not use a "model". At least not in the normal sense of the word.

Models may predict higher temperatures than are observed. That happens a lot actually. In fact, climate models only had marginal success during "the pause". They tended to not pick up on the pause very well. As a result they slightly overestimated the warming. However, this discrepancy has mostly disappeared in more recent years. The global mean temperature is now tracking close to the center of the modeled envelop. I still think models are overestimating the warming some and will continue to do so because of the approaching solar grand minimum. I think the warming will continue on a 0.2C/decade which is less than the ~0.3C/decade consensus by the IPCC. But, what if I'm wrong? What if models underestimate the warming? Skeptics like to point out that they aren't perfect. That's a double edged sword.

 

Temperature is but one element. Absolutely a fact. When I posted the list of all countries highest all time temperatures, the bulk were not recent. Some in fact date to the 1800s and the hottest of all deserts, Death Valley, CA reached it's record in 1913.

I conferred some years Ago with Dr. Lindzen and protested to him about average temperature. He concurred and said the mean is far more appropriate. Matter of fact, he gave me a link to his papers and asked me to read his that include other scientists working with him. You say I mind using the global mean. I want mean to apply to areas, not to the entire globe. Do you truly accept averaging in the poles with the equator? I think when graphs of Earth show a blue scale up to a red scale and the difference is a few tenths of one degree, the red alarms people. I believe the people making such graphs do it on purpose.

Here is one of my pet peeves. Few discuss clouds. They at times bring up albedo but I mean how much of earth is cloud covered and as transient as clouds are, how does that factor in? I see where clouds can factor in over land and act to cool off earth. By fraud I mean the creating of a graph designed entirely to alarm. People are scared of this. And I ask them, if you accept it is your fault, why do you do it and when do you plan to stop. I say this is a line used to make us believe we manage climate. A bit more Carbon Dioxide and we rogue humans warm planet earth. If we shut down our lousy production of Carbon Dioxide by magic we now regulated the climate of earth. BS to that crap.

 

There are things one can model very very well. There then is the Climate. If Earth had but one climate, models would be excellent. Earth is like a village. You do not model the average of a village to decide on policy.

If you had 1/3 of the homes very very chilly, because the inhabitants are Eskimos, and 1/3 from the Tropics and more from an extreme altitude, to each the proper temperature is what they like. Averages mean nothing at all.

We speak as if Earth has one climate. And it is getting horridly hot and we humans are lousy people and do it on purpose. and if we listen to you peopope. we will quit warming Earth.

What about the economic health of the people of earth? What happens when we do as you want and put an end to progress?

Why do you think the Earths jerks refuse to do what you want? When will you leave them alone?

 

We've had it with the fkn models.

OUT: Snowfalls Are Now Just A Thing Of The Past.

In: UK weather: Army called in to rescue drivers trapped in cars as forecasters warn of more snow and howling winds.

 

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This thread has nothing to do with a model or a prediction. This is about what actually happened.

 

NEW YORK TIMES COLUMNIST NICHOLAS KRISTOF WARNS OF CLIMATE CHANGE WHILE ON COMPANY’S GLOBAL $135,000 A TICKET PRIVATE JET TOUR.

The tour, if it sold out, would bring in $6.75 million.

In 2013, the Times ran a “news analysis” piece entitled, “Your Biggest Carbon Sin May Be Air Travel,” which reported, “For many people reading this, air travel is their most serious environmental sin. One round-trip flight from New York to Europe or to San Francisco creates a warming effect equivalent to 2 or 3 tons of carbon dioxide per person.”

The size of the “carbon footprint” for the Times tour is not known, but some estimates place private jet flights at 10 times that of a commercial flight.

As for the Times trip, Kristof will not be making the entire journey with the group. He is only going to Easter Island, Samoa and Australia. Other Times writers are taking different legs of the 26-day journey. That, presumably, means each will be meeting the group on their appointed leg of the tour and flying back to wherever they call home, adding to the carbon footprint of the tour.

Today, the ever-scolding Gray Lady tweeted, “It’s harder to enjoy your burger when you think of the greenhouse gas emitted in producing it.”

To normal Americans, it makes it all the more enjoyable knowing that leftwing urban puritans are diving for fainting couches. Though presumably, those eating burgers while on Kristoff’s $135,000 a ticket private jet tour are absolved of any such guilt.

 

THE AL GORE EFFECT COMES TO MINNESOTA
I got excited when I heard that all across the country, activists would be “marching for science” today. Promoting, no doubt, information about X and Y chromosomes and the fact that–scientifically speaking–there are only two genders.

Just kidding. Actually, the March For Science “movement”–it gives off a strong odor of Astroturf–covers a broad range of left-wing talking points. But first among them is global warming. When the organizers of the Minnesota March For Science planned their event for April 14, featuring an alarmist weatherman as a speaker, they no doubt thought they were beyond the risk of the Al Gore Effect. They were wrong.


March for Science MN

✔@ScienceMarchMN
Due to the extreme winter storm approaching this weekend, the #MarchForScience rally in St. Paul is going to be postponed. New date will be announced later. Trust us, even @pdouglasweather thinks postponing was a good idea.

7:19 PM - Apr 11, 2018



http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2018/04/the-al-gore-effect-comes-to-minnesota.php

 

Meanwhile temperatures in Oklahoma soared above 100F...in April!

 

it's like the republican saying the economy was fine under bush, till it crashed... no changing their minds till it happens

 

Boy would I love to have a job that proves I knew what I was talking about after I died. I predict we may have AI that destroys us all by the year 2100. Prove me wrong. Oh you can’t?? Then I’m a genius. Give me awards and medals for guessing.

 

Sorry, but what is normal? 1970?

 

Exactly correct. science is both accuracy and precision. Lefties just like to torture studies until they confess.

 

It’s so bad that the Antarctic is gaining ice!

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddar...ns-of-antarctic-ice-sheet-greater-than-losses

 

Did you think no one would notice that your link was dated October of 2015?

 

Wow! 3 years ago! LOL

 

"Normal" is defined by the World Meteorological Organization as the mean over the last 30 years.

 

I don't think anyone thought it was a joke when Halley's prediction about a specific comet returning in 1758 proved him correct...after he died. Do you see where I'm going with this?

 

I guess quantum mechanics drives you crazy then?

 

I don't deny it. I welcome it. Think of all the money the world will save by not operating ice breakers. While the Arctic warmed up my back yard is experiencing the coldest and snowiest April in memory. I think it is the climate hawks who tell us that we can't judge global warming by a particular geography. Be thankful the planet isn't cooling.

 

Which means if such records had been used during the mini ice age, that the mean would not have been normal...right?

 

In this context "not normal" means some specific deviation from the 30yr average. What is that threshold at which we can say "not normal"? Right now the deviation is pretty extreme relative to various other deviations observed over the last 100,000 years. In fact, you have to go back almost 10,000 years ago to find a candidate that might have had a similar deviation from normal. So no, our departure from normal today is not the same as the departure from normal during the Little Ice Age.

 

An update from this year.

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/new-study-brings-antarctic-ice-loss-into-sharper-focus
https://qz.com/1213702/a-new-nasa-image-confirms-that-antartica-is-losing-ice-faster-every-year/

 

There is a trend towards the Seasons changing around a bit.
But that does not change the fact that Climate Changers or Global
Warmers have manipulated purposedly temperatures for a stated goal.
Because Scientists have been grafted { funded } to make for Global
warming.By hook or crook.Sea Ice in the Antarctic was supposed to be
melting and it hasn't.It's grown.The Polar ice caps did not melt down.
We have record cold winters now and record level of snowfall.
Cooler summers.With an occasional hot spell.Like I say ... the
Seasons have changed a bit.Later winters and cooler summers.
Maybe an historic Feburary with record highs.Feburary is by far the
coldest month in the U.S. But this year it's been a record high.
But wait ... This spring,thus far,has been one of the coldest.
So there's been a tradeoff.But by no means is that to conclude that
the Earth is warming up.It's not.Temperature Data has been manipulated.
Ask any Family member who has kin what the Dust Bowl years
in the 1930's were like.Now that was Global Warming.