My 2020 prediction

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by Qohelet, Mar 30, 2019.

  1. Qohelet

    Qohelet Active Member

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    Trump will be your president for another term. Main reason is that you can't fix stupid. Also people's level of ignorance is working well for Trump and he can rely on that. Whatever comes up in debate, even how stupid things Trump will say, nothing really matter. Trump is first choice for any low educated who's taking Trump's words like gospel.

    Any failed attempt to prove Trump as criminal will work for him, because you can divide people to 'evil' and 'good' (good = who's supporting Trump). All you need to do is convince who's on 'good' side for the people (even when all policies are not for those who have hard time with their lives and Trump isn't doing anything significant to help those).

    Trump is playing same cards again and again, "enemy is X" and "I'm to solution for safety" (wall, immigrant policy, etc) - it's really far from intellectual way to do it, but it's gonna work because most of Trump base is simple minded fools, those who are locked in Trump bubble without second thought. Stupidity is what's number one in politics now - everything else is less significant when it comes to influence. Time of decency and sanity is over for now - and I don't know when it's coming back. Let the **** hit the fan, I'm gonna watch from Finland and see how close I'm with this prediction. Kinda hope I'm wrong, because I really don't think that Trump is good thing for America. He's just plain stupid.
     
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  2. Reasonablerob

    Reasonablerob Well-Known Member

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    I agree, Trump will be re-elected president in 2020 but not because of the reasons you state, because of snobbish, hypocritical elitest sneering by folks like yourself. You are the reason people vote for Donald Trump, Hilary.
     
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  3. doombug

    doombug Well-Known Member

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    You can talk about Trump voters all you want but right now the democrats are blowing it big time. The radical left is coming up with all these crazy policies and the MSM cannot let the Mueller scam go. They are doubling down! lolz!

    If Trump wins it will be because the democrats could not pull themselves together long enough to talk about what really matters to the people.
     
  4. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    There are two keys to elections, especially presidential election.

    The first key is the male/female turnout ratio. When men turn out to vote in equal or greater numbers than women the Republicans win. When women outnumber men in turnout the Dems win. This is especially true in midterms.

    [​IMG]

    The Dems won in 2018 because of the larger turnout of women. They lost in 2016 because the turnout was more or less equal between men and women.

    The second factor is the change in Demographics. 2020 will be when whites drop to just 2/3rds of the eligible electorate while minorities grow to be 1/3rd.

    Which brings us back to the odds of the BLOTUS winning in 2020.

    Minority voter SUPPRESSION by the GOP is going to be all that they have going for them because all other factors are now trending against them. White males without college educations are the core of his support but they are shrinking in terms of actual voters. They turned out in force in both 2016 and 2018 and while they prevailed in the former they were outvoted by women in the latter.

    2018 was significant because the Dem voter turnout was just under what it was in 2016. This is unheard of for a Midterm but it does point to the REASON why there was this INCREASED TURNOUT when it should never have happened.

    In 2016 Bernie Sanders exposed the TRUTH about the real problem with our nation. The Wall Street Casino has been systematically stripmining the wealth of the middle and lower class in our nation. His message resonated loud and clear and it is worth noting that 12% of his support came from the right and eventually voted for the BLOTUS in the general election.

    The voters who were inspired by Bernie became the Progressive wing of the Dem party and over the last two years they have worked their asses off and REGAINED 40% of the seats the Dems have lost to the GOP through Gerrymandering and Minority Voter Suppression nationwide.

    The Progressives prevailed in 2017 and 2018 and will be focused on winning in 2020. They WANT a Progressive candidate on the Dem ticket and if the Dems deny them that opportunity they do so at their own peril IMO. Without a Progressive candidate the BLOTUS could scrape by and be re-elected. Worth noting that the Dem Establishment is well aware of the Progressives and their motivation when it comes to winning. Joe Biden has put forward a proposal of himself as the Establishment candidate with Stacy Abrams, a Progressive, as his running mate. While she has not accepted his offer I see this type of compromise being what the Dem ticket against the BLOTUS will look like.

    In summation the BLOTUS is his own worst enemy and his base of supporters is dwindling. On top of that he is one of the primary motivators for the Progressives to get out the vote of Minorities. If the Progressives prevail against the GOP Minority voter suppression then the BLOTUS will lose. Otherwise he will continue to be an indelible stain on our nation for another term.

    To quote Churchill, Americans will do the right thing but only after first trying every other alternative and failing. Hopefully We the People will have exhausted all of our bad options by 2020.
     
  5. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    Based on what has actually happened so far I see him adding Maine, New Hampshire and New Mexico, losing Iowa. He could gain Virginia if no Virginian is on the ticket but lose the home state of the VP opponent if he won it previously.
    Can you name a candidate who can pluck any southern state or western heartland state from him? If not you're looking for a 21 state to 29 state deficit with a single digit electoral win, followed by 4 years of investigations in how you stole the election or civil war.
     
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  6. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    https://www.insidesources.com/in-n-h-trump-trails-warren-bernie-and-beto-in-2020-match-ups/

    Maine is going to a tough state to flip because the Dems are going all out to replace Susan Collins in the Senate race. There are also more registered Dems and Republicans in Maine.
     
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  7. Reasonablerob

    Reasonablerob Well-Known Member

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    Your post was interesting at first then dropped into self-delusion. The interesting thing is that the electorate cannot be divided into racial lines, Latinos and Asians also vote GOP. Voter suppression is a myth, ensuring that only those entitled to vote do indeed vote is voter verification and I don't know how anyone can object to it? If the DNC select a progressive candidate they might as well hand Donald the keys to the Whitehouse for another 4 years, the way to win back Trump voters is not to drift leftwards.
     
  8. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    Ironic PROJECTION of your own self delusion duly noted and ignored for derogatory reasons.

    GOP minority voter suppression is FACTUALLY DOCUMENTED and only the self deluded deny that REALITY!

    Obviously you MISSED the SIGNIFICANCE of the GENDER division which is the PRIMARY factor that will cause your beloved BLOTUS to defeat himself.

    Women are the LARGEST voting BLOC of all and his ABYSMAL behavior towards ALL women is what is MOTIVATING them to rid the Whitehouse of his noxious stench.

    The Dems will win with a female candidate who has NOT been pre-vilified by the GOP. There are a great many to choose from and the BLOTUS will only harm himself by attacking whomever she might be.
     
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  9. Reasonablerob

    Reasonablerob Well-Known Member

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    Yes, voter verification factually documented, you just don't want that because illicit voters overwhelmingly vote DNC
    Gender is interesting, people thought the female vote would go overwhelmingly towards Hilary but it didn't so I wouldn't have much confidence in that. We still don't know who the DNC will nominate so it's a moot point at this stage.
    How about you debate reasonably and stop ranting?
     
  10. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    Yet another ironic PROJECTION of your own shortcomings duly noted and ignored for derogatory reasons.

    Which part of the term "pre-vilified by the GOP" needs to be explained?

    Also duly noted that you have FAILED to substantiate your ranting allegation that "illicit voters overwhelmingly vote DNC".

    How about you take your own advice?
     
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  11. gorfias

    gorfias Well-Known Member

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    I think he's just going to say that his plan is to make America great again, renegotiating our international trade deals, fighting nation rape and improving our economy while the left tries to keep us impoverished but on life support (welfare) while protecting us from cow farts.
     
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  12. Reasonablerob

    Reasonablerob Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, that excuse sentence of yours has zero effective range.

    Where exactly did I 'rant'? The part that needs explained is that how ensuring only those entitled to vote get to vote is a bad thing and your phrase 'pre-vilified by the GOP' only illustrates your bias? Illicit voters overwhelmingly vote for the DNC, hence why the GOP have such a yen for voter verification and the DNC oppose it.
     
  13. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    :roflol:

    Once again you FAILED to substantiate your imaginary "illicit voters" and their "overwhelming vote for the DNC" bovine excrement.

    You are doing a great job of downgrading your own credibility by regurgitating extreme rightwing disinformation.
     
  14. Observing

    Observing Well-Known Member

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    Trump and wall street have to keep the Dow above 27,000 in November of next year. Voters will hold their noses if they are working and 401s are doing good and he has a shot at being re-elected, but I think even with a good economy his behavior and personality are going to be very hard to overcome.

    I am retired and have voted since Nixon, even Nixon was not this disliked as a person. Reagan was adored by the right and was respected by the left but certainly not liked. as you can say about everyone else that sat in that office, they were all thought to be decent and good people except for Clinton, but even he was just hated for being a liar and a cheater, trump takes it to a whole other level.
     
  15. Crawdadr

    Crawdadr Well-Known Member

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    If the economy is good come election night then Trump wins. The only hope was collusion and that has been dashed. If the Dems run on the green deal then even if the economy is not good Trump wins.
     
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  16. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    “It isn't so much that liberals are ignorant. It's just that they know so many things that aren't so.”

    ― Ronald Reagan

    A new study finds voter ID laws don’t reduce voter fraud — or voter turnout
     
  17. APACHERAT

    APACHERAT Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    One of the main reasons why Trump won just wasn't because that Trump has the cajones to call as spade a spade but that Hillary and the left wing attacked those who supported Trump.

    Keep attacking half of America and Trump will be reelected in 2020.
     
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  18. 3link

    3link Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    We’re not elite. We’re just not stupid. There’s a difference.
     
  19. 3link

    3link Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Lol please. Far more people hate trump than love him. All they need is an effective candidate to channel that rage properly. If trump wins, it will be because the dems failed to find the right candidate. That could happen.
     
  20. Crawdadr

    Crawdadr Well-Known Member

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    Maybe around you but around here you cannot walk ten feet without tripping over a Trump Sign
     
  21. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    :roflol:

    Closing polling stations in minority districts and eliminating early voting DOES reduce voter turnout!

    Too bad your "study" FAILED to include those RELEVANT factors!

    I wonder why they didn't?
     
  22. Reasonablerob

    Reasonablerob Well-Known Member

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    Yes you ARE! You think anyone who disagrees with you is 'stupid', that is the kind of sneering snobbishness that put Trump in the Whitehouse in 2016 and will again in 2020 unless you change your ways and realise that anyone who disagrees with you is not some kind of 'deplorable'. Your insularity and lack of empathy are just appalling.
     
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  23. Reasonablerob

    Reasonablerob Well-Known Member

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    No, the vocal minority hate Trump, a very different vocal minority love him to bits. The majority are undecided but you are correct, they will take Trump again unless the DNC produce a viable candidate to regain the middle ground.
     
  24. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Well, except for the facts, you might have something.
     
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  25. 3link

    3link Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    In other words, people vote republican when their feelings are hurt because someone had the guts to tell them that their opinions are bad.
     
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