Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Best wishes and a speedy recovery for Mario Diaz-Balart. I hope he recovers and is back in congress ASAP.

 

Once our social distancing is enough to reduce the person to person transmission rate below 1.0 the virus begins to blow out.

We're over that rate at the moment, we have to do better.


Sky News Breaking
@SkyNewsBreak
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Chancellor Angela Merkel has addressed German citizens in a televised speech saying "since WWII there has never been a challenge for our country in which acting in solidarity was so very crucial" and called on people to help tackle the spread of COVID-19 by sticking to rules

Yeah, I'm not sure if the German Chancellor should be invoking German solidarity in WWII.

 

Why did US impose new sanctions on Iran, by the way?

 

The U.S. just moved to a high-speed platform for test analysis the last couple of days, thanks to private industry technology and the FDA loosening its time-consuming regulations of having a human with state or federal labs run every test.

That's the reason for the spike in cases, which the CDC has been telling us to expect. We still have a 5-day backlog of test samples which need analysis, plus we're running more tests every day. The U.S. numbers are expected to continue to spike for the next 4-5 days until we catch up that backlog. Then we should be testing and getting results more simultaneously and things won't look as alarming.

 

This has truly transcended politics, and has become a human catastrophe. The once low numbers that we could cling to for reassurance, are now steadily(and scarily) rising at an alarming rate. We need to invoke the UN, and have a combined approach as a human planet, as opposed to each individual country.

 

Of course,
Don't seek heart form stones having no percept
it's nonsensical to ask them for understanding and concept

 

You are so secure that no one will revenge you for your actions!

 

I really hope that is the reason for the substantial increase in cases in the US, and that we will be seeing much lower new case % rates by this time next week. Not just for the US, but for every country where a major outbreak is occurring.

 

A 2nd US Congressman, Ben McAdams (D-Utah) has now tested positive.

 

And it stresses the point: Republicans, Democrats. We all bleed red in this time of emergency. I hope that both McAdams and Mario Diaz-Balart recover fully.

 

Researchers at the respected Sharif University of Technology in Tehran have created a computer simulator to test different scenarios for the further spread of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, across Iran. They concluded that in a best-case scenario — in which the government quarantines all high-risk areas, people strictly obey quarantine rules, and access to sufficient medical supplies is guaranteed — the country would reach the peak of the epidemic in roughly one week, and the death toll would exceed 12,000.

Yet that scenario is unrealistic in all three instances: The government can't impose quarantine, people will not obey quarantine rules, and the medical supply situation is catastrophic thanks to US sanctions and chronic mismanagement.

Accounting for those realities, the researchers estimate Iran will not reach the peak of the epidemic until late May, and they estimate as many as 3.5 million people could die as a result.

 

The model used by Sharif University would suggest around 110,000 deaths in Iran by the end of April based on what is actually being done, which is basically between their best case scenario of 12,000 and their worst case scenario of 3.5 million which you mention. But instead of focusing on these kind of projections, the real issue Iran is facing right now is what you simply dismissed as unworkable for Iran. Everywhere else in the world bit by the virus, you find much more stringent measures to prevent its spread than the ones taken in Iran. While Iran has cancelled public events, has closed schools for a while now, and has closed shrines and religious sites and cancelled Friday prayers and such, the government of president Rouhani has steadfastly refused to allow the Iranian military to impose more stringent quarantines. Something everyone else is doing. And the reason they aren't allowing it is political concerns (losing authority to the military and revolutionary guards), even though they are claiming the reason is economic.

That said, considering everything, president Rouhani is actually not far from the truth when he compared the situation in Iran to those elsewhere, specifically in Europe. Despite sanctions and everything else, Iran has experienced comparatively less shortages and despite everything, the numbers in Iran of people being treated and recovering from the virus are better than many other countries. While the propaganda organs against Iran do their usual thing, and used to try to ridicule Iran for exactly what is now happening elsewhere -- such as making fun of Iran's deputy health minister coming down with the virus, when now have the UK junior minister for health coming down with the virus, mentioning that up to 10% of Iran's members of parliament have tested positive for the virus, with a similarly growing number of members of the European parliament and now members of the US Congress coming down with the virus, showing politicized social media pictures of shortages of face masks and such in Iran, when the situation outside of Iran has been much worse on these issues --- the truth about Iran is certainly not found in either the wish-list of the propaganda organs lying about things regarding Iran constantly and outrageously, nor necessarily in those things which the governments in Iran and its regime may like to emphasize often. But that doesn't mean we can't get a good sense of the picture and the truth either. Iran, for instance, has allowed extensive field visits and investigation of the situation in the country by the WHO. Read the actual reports from the WHO on Iran from these visits, and not the spin, and you will see Iran is doing a decent job and is a lot more upfront about things than most other places in the world (mainly because Iran's government has many detractors both within and without the country to expose any actual lies, both making it less able to lie and making those who want to tarnish its credibility left more to propaganda and lies themselves). And also do what I have done: ask yourself:

1) how many people you actually know personally (whether as relatives, friends or acquaintances) have died because of this virus or in any other suspicious manner? I know or am acquainted with more than a thousand people and none of the ones I personally know or have met have died from the virus. And while there is a distant relative (in-law) in my wife's family who I didn't actually know or ever meet who has died from the Coronavirus, among the thousands of people in the networks of people related to me, known to me personally, that is the only case so far that even comes close.
2) while people you actually know or acquainted with would make up a large number by itself, now ask how many people who you might not know personally, and who are close to you, who in turn know of people who have died from the Coronovirus in Iran even if you personally have never met them? Besides the person I mentioned above (which would fit into this category), my father was also acquainted with one of the people who have died from the virus.

You put those two figures next to one another, and you will see that while the situation in Iran requires serious attention and would be helped if the Rouhani administration didn't try to prevent the measures the revolutionary guards and the military wanted to take, at the end of the day, you will get a good sense of where Iran is now and where it might be heading. Especially since Iran was one of the first places to come down with the virus outside of East Asia and has been dealing with the issue comparatively longer than elsewhere.

p.s.
Here are two reports relating to the political tug of war over the virus in Iran. I did it find it rather curious (and telling) that the western media which reported on Rouhani's comments basically ignored the direct comparisons he drew between the situation in Iran and Europe Regardless of whether the comparisons were correct or not, skipping over one of the main themes of his comments does show the kind of bias that is found even in the best stories about Iran. (The worst ones are simply so outrageously false that it makes me wonder what has happened to our world).

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/world/middleeast/coronavirus-iran-rouhani.html
Power Struggle Hampers Iran’s Coronavirus Response
President Hassan Rouhani has been severely criticized for not acting forcefully against the epidemic. Now he and the military, newly empowered to intervene, are fighting over control.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020...irus-deaths-surpass-1000-200318142652319.html
Iran defends response as virus deaths surpass 1,000
Health ministry says 5,710 people have recovered from coronavirus, reportedly including a 103-year-old woman.

 

The thing is that, the military is commanded by The supreme leader, not by the president, since 38 years ago. So, the responsibility
A function if the supreme leader is to issue orders for peace and war.
At least they can cancel all flights, and prevent travels.

 

In Iran, any action (as opposed to veto type measures) actually require consensus between the two main factions, i.e. those controlling the government bureaucracy and the leadership and the organs affiliated with it. Otherwise, the system is such that nothing is done and each group does its own thing.

Read the article from the New York Times I posted. Iran's Supreme Leader did want to give the military more authority to restrict travel and impose quarantine like measures such as those in Europe (after initially trying to down play the virus for political reasons, such as encouraging voter turnout in the parliamentary elections). The Rouhani administration refused and unless Ayatollah Khamenie was willing to get into a public spat with him and dismiss him (something he doesn't want to do in a crisis like this especially), we ended up not taking the measures that only last week the revolutionary guards were planning to take. Hence, we now have the road and traffic heading out of Tehran for Norouz travel packed and jammed! One of the simplest measures was to close this traffic, but even that was opposed by Rouhani.

 

On the bright side. Europe's open border policy will finally come to an end!

 

I was tired from working 7 days a week and clicked on an old link.

 

I'm working 7 days a week at age 62 I clicked on an old link. Don't laugh to hard, Italy has a Government run Health care System. You know, like the Democrats want.

 

Government run Health Care at it finest.

 

That would be South Korea.

 

The fact that you didn't realize how many people had died from the virus in Italy wouldn't be a major issue if you had a clue. But you obviously don't! And whether you have an excuse for being so ill informed to imagine the number in Italy was less than 200 when it was almost 3,000, what makes you imagine you are better informed about anything else?

As with everything else in life, you either have the time, inclination, talent, and are willing to put in the effort, to be truly informed, or you need to ultimately pick at least some genuine expert in the field you are discussing as your "source of emulation". Relying on Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity and such figures for your view of the world doesn't cut it, as they aren't experts in anything except selling people lies.

In the meantime, a test of the relative merits of various health care systems will show itself in the recovery rates versus mortality rates among those who become ill from the virus, balancing the stats based on some other factors such as the population demographics, the number of cases being treated etc. You will hate me telling you this, but everything considered, right now South Korea and China (and some other East Asian countries) have shown the best numbers. That doesn't mean you should want the medical or political system in the US to be just like the one in China, as there is more to life than how a system is able to deal with a pandemic. But the idea that Italy's situation has much to do with the merits or demerits of a government run health care system is the kind of political nonsense that unfortunately covers too much of the discourse in America.

 

Add them to Italy.

 

FFS this is the most informative thread on PF. Stop trying to politicise it. It just makes you look petty.

 

You are adding emphasis to my point 3000 dead already with Government run health care. Thanks. By the way you have no idea what your talking about. Give my regards to Qasem Soleimani.

 

And Germany's death rate is 1 tenth that of the US. What do you make of that? There system is close to what Bernie proposes and exactly what Mayor Pete did. Italy has a health care system that was overrun, Germany was better at controlling the speed of the spread and it's hospitals could cope. The US still has work to do.

 

I created a thread about Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel's speech to the nation re: COVID-19:

http://www.politicalforum.com/index...ss-to-the-german-nation-over-covid-19.569769/

I made a separate thread because that info is not really part of tracking the COVID-19 virus, but I think it is worthy of adding as information.