Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

@Statistikhengst may have a different take on this, but what I see from your graph is:
- South Korea has done an amazing job of flattening the curve. It is really impressive. What did they do so right?
- Germany and even more so Spain are on a worse trend than Italy. The curve doesn't look steeper, just earlier
- The curve for USA is both earlier than Italy's curve and steeper than Italy, Spain and Germany. Things look like they could get very much worse in USA, very quickly.

 

I want to thank you very much for contributing information relevant to COVID-19 as applies to Iran. That is an enrichment for this thread and more imporantly, for the people who read it.

 

So, I can understand how you can maybe feel that way, but the context is missing or you are not seeing it. I too, upon watching her speech first, kind of did a double-take until, after talking with a German friend, realized that Merkel was referring not to the Allies as a threat to Germany in WWII, but rather, Hitler himself. Her family suffered massively at his hand's, there is no love in her heart for Adolph Hitler. Now, usually, when German's refer to the entire period encompassing WWII, they simply call it the "Hitler-Zeit", the time of Hitler, but I am absolutely SURE that she would never, ever invoke his name for any purpose.For this reason, she used WWII as a generic term to imply the Hitler-Zeit.

So, again, I can understand how you may feel about this, but that is not what she meant. Context is everything.

 

South Korea: only time will tell, but the agressive, early testing and massive quarantäne procedures surely helped. I would think that South Koreans, being neighbors to the Chinese, suspected all along that the Chinese Govt was not being very forthright about COVID-19 and I bet they started planning early. Plus, the first major outbreaks happened in a wild religious cult group, so it was relatively easy for the S. Koreans to isolate a major patch of infections from the get go.

Yes, Germany's curve is even earlier than Italy's. I can say with 100% certainty that, since COVID-19 was present in Germany in the middle of February, the moment that 52 or 53 million Germans went out onto the streets to celebrate KARNEVAL, shake each others hands, kiss each other, get drunk as skunks together, that the disease took a quantum leap in the time from WEIBERFASTNACHT, 20.02.2020, exactly one month ago today, culminating on ROSENMONTAG, 24.02.2020, that over these 5 days, the virus had a chance to spread into all 16 Bundesländer (Provinces). When you calculate an incubation-time of 5 days plus maybe 10 days of being infected before symptoms begin to show, taking an average of 12 days, then that brings us to the date 07.03.2020 (March 7th). Since it takes days to confirm by testing, the real breakout in numbers in Germany began on 14.03.2020 (March 14th), which btw is exactly the date on which I started this thread. And that math I had going on in my head was a big motivator in creating the thread. For this very reason, I did not participate in Karneval this year. I had a very bad feeling about the whole thing and stayed home.

Of course, there was also KARNEVAL in Italy and to some degree, in Spain, but they do it a little differently.

Yes, the curve is the USA is the most bitter of the ones you mentioned.

 

My thanks also for the many informative posts you have made on this subject. Hopefully, people will heed the underlying message.

 

Don't uncork the champagne yet. The party is about to begin in Germany and then we will see how robust their "Gesundheitswesen" is. Due to sheer numbers, it may end up that Germany's HC-system may also be overrun, not because of system, but rather, because of the sheer numbers all at once. Which is why we absolutely MUST flatten the curve.

What Germany has managed to do, and frankly, no one is really sure how, is to keep the number of deaths extremely low, far lower in proportion to the number of officially recorded infections. That being said, very, very few people in Germany have also officially recovered, a ridiculously small number, which means that the lion's share of COVID-19 cases in Germany are, for lack of a better phrase, hanging in the balance.

Perhaps there is a therapeutic that Germans are using that is having a real helpful effect, I just do not know.

 

Well said.

 

Italy had 475 death yesterday alone...

 

Unfortunately, in Italy, 20 year old are dying as well, as quickly. We may have made an assumption about this virus that could end up being very false.

 

They don't even take the time to bury their dead... A priest say a few prayers alone over the close casket then the casket is put in a cellar...

 

I have not read about this yet, but in times of emergency, this has indeed happened in the past.
Do you have a link, perhaps?

And welcome to this thread. I am glad that you are here.

 

It was a TV interview yesterday on LCN, a local news network here in Quebec. Sadly they don't have that particular interview online.

 

Wrong!

If they were doing it for free or at cost that might apply but since they are doing it FOR PROFIT that just makes them EXPLOITERS of the misfortunes of others.

 

By that logic, doctors and nurses are also exploiters since they're getting paid(or I presume they're getting paid.)

 

Or CPAC!

Also I would bet that he has infected members of his staff and other members of the House.

 

Your criminal IMPOTUS had the OPPORTUNITY to follow the highly effective strategy used by South Korea. He blew them off and is NOW responsible for the SIGNIFICANTLY greater number of infections and deaths.

Facts matter!

 

This disease does not discriminate.

 

Congratulations!

You have realized that we are a single species ALL on the SAME planet and when someone anywhere throws out a plastic container it impacts us ALL.

In essence Covid-19 is the Cough Heard Around the World!

We MUST think and act GLOBALLY in the future,

 

Your own math establishes that by the time the backlog has been caught up the rate of doubling will under a week, possibly even as little as 5 days. The spurt is just late reporting of what has already happened. We are currently under reporting with our numbers and our projections should be higher.

 

You are about to see how our GREED OBSESSED healthcare system is going to FAIL under even more pressure than Italy has endured and it pains me to know that so many of my fellow Americans are going to needlessly suffer and die as a consequence of that greed obsession.

 

I do not blame him for the spread so much. His rhetoric, however, is counter productive to preventing panic and hoarding which opens the door wide for fraud and exploitation and it does hinder the efforts of those who have taken the lead, the NBA, then NCAA, governors and mayors.

 

There is a MASSIVE DIFFERENCE between being an EMPLOYEE and being an OWNER!

 

I'm actually going to go to bed(I've been something of an Insomanic lately, more than usual actually) and I'll respond to this but, I think I need to do it in PM with you because what you're heavily implying here is that ownership of industry is inherently exploitative in nature and that's entirely an economic argument(one I disagree with) that would detract from the COVID thread.

 

Country comparisons will be interesting. The U.S. shut down travel and then started testing. Most other countries starting testing and then shut down travel.

As far as testing goes, the U.S. may have the largest backlog because of the failure of the first test we developed, and then a few weeks to get FDA to agree to loosen controls surrounding allowing private companies produce and analyze tests. The FDA allowed the private manufacture of 4 million tests per week before they allowed private companies to analyze the results of those tests.

I don't know that every country will see the huge spike and then drop that we will see over the next five or so days. After the backlog is cleared, the number of U.S. cases will continue to climb until we hit the peak. The media will mostly report as an "alarming spike" in cases without reporting that a backlog is the cause. Anyone listening to "news" and not to the daily reports coming directly from DHHS/CDC may be caught off guard. We've essentially been told to "Hold on to your seats; it's going to be quite a ride," for the next 4-5 days.

We are still allocating and focusing resources on counties in the country with 50 or more cases, the hot spots. We know that cases in other parts of the country will become hot spots.

 

The diplomats and politicians will be the last to heed their own advice about limiting travel and maintaining social distancing. Congress needs to go to teleconferencing their sessions. That goes for other world leaders, diplomats, ambassadors too.