Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

The IMHE model keeps on adjusting itself to the latest data which is how is manages to be "spot on" at all times. Think of it like a speedometer rather than a map.

 

I will chime in with my views on this subject some other time, in the thread you reference.

 

No. As I've stated, I don't believe the numbers coming out of any country. They all are understating to some degree or another the number of deaths and total cases. I don't think necessarily all nations are doing it out of nefarious reasons, but all I have are the official numbers. I won't bother to go into further detail right here - you can re-read my post from Apr 2nd if you want more on that.

And look, here is why I think @Statistikhengst and others have ignored you. I don't know if what you are doing is trolling, but it is absolutely spamming. You consistently respond to a plethora of posts with 1-2 sentences. You consistently add nothing by doing this. This response is a great example of where I spent I don't know, 1.5 hours making that post, and that's on top of the time it takes to actually maintain the sheet I use to make it. The crux of your response is not substantive or even really relevant to what I posted. It is implicitly to call out Iran and China for lying about their numbers.

So while I haven't resorted to the ignore button yet, you are really tempting me. The sheer volume of low effort noise you are adding to this thread is totally unmatched by anyone else, and it is getting incredibly irritating to watch person after person put actual effort into responding to you, only to be met with one of:

 

Dr. Fauchi stated on 1/21 that the US had nothing to fear from the Corona virus. On 2/17 Dr. Fauchi stated that the effects on the US would be minuscule. Would Jim Acosta ask gotcha questions of Dr. Fauchi ??

 

So you believe the numbers coming out of the Iranian theocracy. Wow.

 

India is in lockdown and probably does not have a clue how many cases it actually has or how many people have died already.

Sorry to be so brutally frank but with Modi in charge he is probably going to assume dictatorial powers and use the army to control the population. Once that happens there will be two different streams of information coming out of India and neither will be accurate or reliable. The "official figures" and the "resistance figures" will differ considerably IMO.

I post the above with a considerable degree of sadness because I have many friends and colleagues who are Indians. I know them and their families and they are wonderful people. The anxiety they must be experiencing for their own friends and families all across India has got be heart wrenching. They try to put on a brave face but there is no question that they are afraid for what is about to happen in India.

 

Yup! We already know what that is like, unfortunately.

 

Questioning the numbers of the country responsible for the spread of the Corona virus globally and the country which is the world’s leader in state sponsored terrorism run by a theocracy is spamming ??

I realize your posts take time but, seriously, why do you do it? All the data is readily available on the internet at worldometers.

This guy stat is a Trump hater. If you disagree or challenge him he calls you a few names and then goes dark. I could care less about that.

 

Good morning, PFers,

as my day ended right before midnight last night, the last recorded COVID-19 numbers were:



And now, this morning, circa 08:30, GMT +2 (02:30 AM on the East Coast of the USA):





So, while I slept and most Americans are still sleeping, the number of officially confirmed COVID-19 cases jumped by more than 23,000 and we sailed easily over 1.1 million. This with so many new cases in the night is new. In the past three weeks, as I woke up, there were between 3,000-5,000 new cases, yesterday, 6,000 new cases, but not 23,000. This is also a sign that a quantum leap has begun.

I am watching reports in Germany over Russia and hearing directly from colleagues of mine who live in various cities in Russia that the situation there is far, far worse than the authorities are being allowed to seep out to the public. Alone in St. Petersburg, a doctor who has COVID-19 and also had symptoms and was feeling bad kept going to work and he alone is supposed to have infected 60 patients in his hospital. Entire neighborhoods in Moscow are being completely, hermetically sealed. Nothing gets in, nothing gets out. As more details come out, I will report more today. I had a conversation in the night with a dear friend from Samara and she told me that even in Samara, people are terrified to leave their homes, that people are literally falling over in the streets, some of them dead the moment they hit the pavement. The authorities come by in a van, pack the body in a body bag and drive to the next "incident". The reason why Vladmir Putin is keeping this as secret as he can is the same reason as I already wrote for India/Pakistan. Autocrats don't want to admit weakness. They would rather crush the truth than look like they are losing a battle.

I am pretty sure that today is the day when there will be at least 100,000 new cases.

Also, we are just about to hit the 60,000 death mark.

-Stat

 

Ron DeSantis is not being paid a huge salary to make mistakes. He is being paid a huge salary to get good advice and do his g-ddamned job.
I'm an anonymous internet presence. Ok, a very nice presence. But I don't have the power to decide over life and death. He does. That's the difference. Do you understand that??

 

I believe in what I have written. And I always open to being corrected, as people do make mistakes.

The 'actual numbers' for Iran may be higher than what the government has reported. But the polemical and propaganda accounts on the issue are worthless and part of the general arsenal used for other purposes against Iran. Otherwise, I have no problem even with what this report from a US government funded network (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and its Iran affiliate, Radio Farda) mentions as their estimates. Their estimate could be correct as it doesn't significantly change the overall picture, but I certainly reject the ridiculously sensationalized estimates by some other propaganda outfits.

https://www.rferl.org/a/azerbaijain-coronavirus-text/30526687.html

 

And yet, there are ugly cretins out there who think and worse yet, say exactly that. How sad.
Those cretins get no empathy from me.

 

I posted about India here yesterday and the day before. They are barely testing and poor people are literally sleeping on the treetops in order to socially distance themselves.

Welcome to the 21st century in India.

 

NO.

 

Yes, I fit into the same category of working from home and having a few, but not all, of the symptoms and since I don't have a fever I have not been tested either. My concern is that I am infectious so I have not left my house for the last 8 days and I have used delivery services for groceries and medications instead.

I came across this fascinating chart based upon Days Since Lockdown and Deaths per Day.

https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1245473756685926400



First thing to note is that the TOTAL death toll in Wuhan is still climbing. It is not yet over even after 70 days of lockdown.

The second point of interest is the correlation between the places that are now plateauing like Lombardia and Washington State. Daegu is in SK and Veneto is in Italy just to the east of Lombardy. The lockdowns are managing to contain the death rate per day.

The LHS of the chart is crowded but we can clearly see that NY State has not yet reached the plateau but hopefully the lockdown measures will take effect and NS's data will show that in the coming weeks ahead.

That cannot happen soon enough IMO because even after getting to that point there is still a very long way to go before this burns out. Ten weeks after the draconian lockdown in Wuhan and there are still 4 deaths per day and yes, that could be undercounting given that China has been less than honest when it comes to Covid19.

We are looking at a minimum of 3 months or more from whatever stage the entire nation eventually goes into full lockdown mode.

My estimate (in a different thread) of Labor Day is beginning to look like a Best Case Scenario now.

 

Thank you for pointing that out to someone whose posts I cannot see.

ALL of us have a pre-existing condition, namely, that we will all one day die. So, I guess that in the minds of some sick ****s, none of us will ever have died from COVID-19.

Really, this new bullshit about Italy is just that: bullshit. It's kindergarden crap that's not worthy of a ****-bin, much less an internet forum.

As a matter of fact, italian doctors go out of their way to list all possible factors LEADING UP TO a death, but very obviously (ok, crazy people out there, read this and learn) the last thing in your body that kills you is THE thing that killed you. So, for instance, a fat old man with a bad heart MAY have died of a bad heart two months from now, but he died directly from COVID-19 yesterday, so now it doesn't make any difference in the world if he may have died in two months of a bad heart. He died of COVID-19. Basta.

Really, the people who are suddenly spreading this horse-manure about Italy need to get their heads checked. And they should also learn to be fluent in Italian before they open their mouths and spew nonsense.

 

Spot-on. It's all about the curve.

 

You have already done that plenty on this thread. I have already expressed my opinions on their numbers. Yes, continuing to rehash the same tired points over and over is spamming. As is replying to my post with something effectively unrelated to it, and already covered on the Apr 2nd post which you quoted (so presumably read).

Mostly I like doing it, and I am trying to point out trends in nations that are starting to turn a corner, or may turn one soon. Sure, the data is on worldometers. But no analysis or side by side comparison - especially of % new cases or % new deaths, or averages. It is my attempt to find some positive in nations that are hotspots that are starting to show positive signs.

Maybe he is, but that does not necessarily invalidate his arguments. The problem is people consistently give you plenty of respect by putting effort into their posts. @Iranian Monitor spends a good deal of time trying to explain what the situation in Iran is. Your response:

@truth and justice spends a great deal of time trying to delve into and back up with several sources where the higher than normal deaths related to the flu in the UK are coming from. Your response:

I mean, cmon man. You can't be that thick. The above responses are 0 effort waste of space, and honestly I would be insulted by such a response if I took that kind of time to reply to you and back up the data with sources. My point is that posts like this are the reason people ignore you, but maybe you already know that.

Anyways, that's the last I'm going to say on this. I don't want to derail the thread any further.

 

So what?

You just brought up 3 things that aren't even pertinent to the discussion.

Just a bunch of off-topic "whataboutism".

Trump (and many of his supporters) is/are deliberately downplaying the Virus for political purposes.

Not a good look.

Anyway, it is getting pretty scary (without anyone who possesses competency in the Administration) waiting for the USA to survive Trump's Virus.

 

This is OT, but for a good purpose, and once you read it, I am sure you will understand.

One of our members, @AmericanNationalist , has experienced a great loss in his life.

Since he has contributed greatly to this thread, I feel it would be appropriate for everyone who visits this thread to also visit AM's tribute to his grandmother and perhaps leave a kind thought:

http://www.politicalforum.com/index...t-beloved-grandmother.570630/#post-1071567767

-Stat

 

Thanks for sharing, very nice. One thing though, you said "Days Since Lockdown and Deaths per Day", but that chart is saying "number of days since 3 daily deaths recorded". Still, a great visualization of how long it takes to flatten.

New York state went on lockdown in Mar 23 (technically Mar 22 at 8pm). They posted 70 - 0 - 90 from that Mar 22-24 stretch. So my guess would be probably flattening around Lombardy's timeline by this graph (Mar 9 lockdown). But by waiting so long to do so, they may well surpass Italy's deaths per day at the rate they are going. Italy's deaths per day were 97-168, Mar 9-10.

 

A saddening milestone: the number of dead in NYC as a result of COVID-19 has now surpassed the number of people who died from the terror-attacks on September 11th, 2001:



Also, only 8.04% of cases in New York have been healed, the rest are either still active cases or the patients have, sadly, died.
8% recovered is a horrifying statistic. Just horrifying.

 

ONE MONTH AGO today, on March 4th, 2020, I posted the following numbers on twitter vis-a-vis COVID-19:




Also, exactly one month ago today, I posted the top part of the countries list. I think it would be very instructive for all to see how much things have changed in just 30 days time. Again, here is part of the countries list from March 4th, 2020 (direct link to the twitter graphic):



You can see that one month ago today, COVID-19 was in 81 countries and 1 int'l conveyance. China was leading, only 4 nations were in the "thousand club", the USA added only 4 cases that day, 9 total deaths and no new deaths that day.

Fast forward to right now, at this moment on April 4th, 2020 (and the day is not over with yet):



Compare the nation's list from above to this one:




And a one month look-back:



In one month's time, the number of COVID-19 cases has increased by a ratio of 11.88 : 1 (that's almost 12 to 1, or a near 12-fold increase).
In one month's time, the number of COVID-19 deaths has increased by a ratio of 18.39 : 1 (that's a little over 18 to 1, or a more than 18-fold increase)
In one month's time, the COVID-19 death rate has risen from 3.42% to 5.29% (a 54.68% increase in the death rate %). If we take 5.29% and extrapolate another 54.68% increase in the death rate, then in one month, we may have a death rate of: 8.18%.

So, let's extrapolate. If the curve doesn't increase or decrease at all, then on May 4th, 2020 we could very well have:

1,118,587 * 11.88 = 13,288,814 COVID-19 confirmed cases (13.3 million)
8.18% of 13,288,814 = 1,081,299 potential deaths.

It's simple math, and the numbers do not lie. However, the parameters themselves could change. They could get considerably better for us, or they could get considerably worse.

It took from December 31st, 2019 until March 6th, 2020 (9 weeks time) to get from one 1 COVID-19 case to 100,000 cases.
It took from March 6th, 2020 to March 2nd, 2020 (slightly less than 4 weeks time) to get from 100,000 COVID-19 case to 1,000,000 cases.
It is entirely possible to get well over the 13.2 million cases I just extrapolated in just one month's time, assuming that people are still testing and do not give up.

If they give up testing, the testing numbers will stagnate. But the number of COVID-19 deaths cannot be hidden. They will be reported.

Imagine a 10 : 1 ratio every month:

May: 13.2 million
June: 132 million
July: 1.32 Billion
August: every host on the planet that COVID-19 could be infected.

This is why an exponential curve is so dangerous.

Now, in spite of the huge numbers, I am seeing the growth rate in sheer numbers of new cases per day actually go down. If they continue to go down, the curve will be there, but it will be flatter. Maybe it would take 2 months to have a 10:1 ratio each time, in which case:

June: 13.2 million
August: 132 million
October: 1.32 Billion
December: every host on the planet that COVID-19 could be infected.

I have bookmarked this posting and will refer back to it on May 4th, 2020, to see what will have actually happened in the meantime.

THIS IS WHY WE MUST FLATTEN THE CURVE.

-Stat

 

Well that is just appalling. Self indulgent winkers with no thought for other people.

 

Oops! Mea Culp, I misread that. Good catch!

Your observation that the LONGER the wait BEFORE lockdown results in the deaths per day rate being HIGHER is what matters because it establishes the URGENCY of acting quickly when there is a Pandemic. That call to quick action was in the original training provided by the prior administration because they applied that lesson in their response to the Ebola crisis and it proved effective.

It is still not too late for some areas in the US to go into strict lockdown mode and keep their own deaths per day rate low. How many are willing to do so is another matter.

 

Unbelievable how much things can change, and how differently they look today, compared to just a month ago.