Your Electoral College Predictions

That was the odd ball but I am looking at the number of Latino voters which have been trending up and the Presidents stance on opening as soon as possible. The largest unions there are based on tourism and opening soon means money for their families. I think Trump speaks to that issue before Biden. But those 6 do not change my prediction of a small Trump win.

 

I have to disagree about that "urban myth" statement. I live in Kansas and we overwhelming went Trump. Yet trying to find someone in my old office who admitted they voted Trump was almost impossible. Now that could be that our large office was just weird. But it is hard to believe we can go more then 50% Trump and have no one among forty having voted for him. But I understand, if you admit it then the ultraliberal in our group would treat them badly. It would cause drama and problems because of how vocal and demeaning they talk about Trump supporters. Why would anyone want that?

 

it's fake news and people are on to Trump in 2020, his birther nonsense no longer works

 

On the record:
Biden win 271-269 (100 percent chance of riots in the streets)
or
Biden wins 291-249 (65 percent chance riots in the streets)

 

Prove it then. Have the Bidens denied it's Hunters laptop, the emails are real and that Bobulinski is telling the truth. Show me what you got to refute the evidence.

 

Only two Democrats have ever won without OH.

 

They don't care about the truth on this.

 

In our Country, it is the responsibility of the accuser to prove without a shadow of doubt that they are telling the truth.

So far........nothing. Even Tucker ran away from this horseshit story cooked up by Rudy and the former producer of the Hannity show. LOL

 

If only your side did that during the Russia Hoax.

LOL, he only recently had Bobulinski on his show for the whole hour.

 

I don't think Trump supporters are bashful in 2020.

I taught school and I think a similar situation might have existed there.

I created and executed a poll years ago when the teachers' union was fighting with a very rightwing school board in a conservative town. Much to my surprise we only had a couple of refusals and this was after a school principal had his house burned down by someone and tensions in the community were sky high.

Can you imagine how a teacher openly supporting a very rightwing school board would be received? I knew teachers who would share with me what they were quiet about in front of most other teachers.

Anyway, I think people are more likely to declare support for Trump than they were four years ago.

 

Is that the same guy that didn't talk to the Senate when he said he was? LOL

 

It's the guy who was the Biden's 'business' partner.

 

The dude that failed to go to the Senate and speak to them. Got it.

 

Regardless of your awareness, the current indications are that Biden doesn't need either of those 2 to win, & not even make it close. HOWEVER, there is the possibility of what I was concerned about occurring (see my post #36, p.2) if:
1)Trump takes TX, as he likely will (he just jumped out in front, there);
2) & Trump takes FL, which is nearly certain, w/ 91% reporting & the Prez holding a significant 3.5 pt. lead;
3) AND Trump takes NC, which is still a question mark, with 90% of the vote in, and Trump just recently establishing a 0.6% pt. lead;
4)AND Trump holds on in Ohio, where he just pulled from 3pts down to now almost 5pts up, w/ 78% reporting;

that would get us to a prospective total of 290 Biden vs. 248 Trump (by my discussion of hypotheticals w/ Distraff, post #47, also p.2).

BUT, since numerous counties in PENNSYLVANIA have announced they plan to count all of TODAY'S VOTE (which will favor Trump), BEFORE starting on the MAIL-IN VOTES (which will favor Biden), tomorrow, it is possible that Biden won't be able to get to 270 tonight (if he were to not pick up, e.g., the 1 elector I'd designated him from NB), leading to a possibly disputed result. (Though I believe PA should go for Biden, once all the votes are counted, if it looked like it might go to Trump, that could make it appear like a possible 269 to 269).

 

MANDATE

 

I can only assume you are being ironic. But here is the potentially BIG STORY at the moment. The Dems are going to pick up a Senate seat in AZ. IF they also capture Susan Collins' Maine seat, that will mean that the RUNOFF ELECTION that's already been triggered for GEORGIA'S Senate seat, to be held in FEBRUARY (I think) would be Democrats' chance to TIE THE SENATE at 50 DEMS and 50 REPUBS.
Or, if Dems win over Iowa's Senate seat from Jody Ernst-- & the Dem challenger is currently ahead-- that GA runoff could be for CONTROL of the Senate.

 

@Distraff
I just want to congratulate you on your prescient prediction, especially since I implied that yours wasn't a realistic guess. For mine to be as close as yours, Biden will not only have to hold on to Nevada & Wisconsin, and catch up to win Michigan, but also catch up & win Georgia. That would put him at 306, & make Florida my only miss-- not impossible, but I'm not holding my breath for that. So, sorry about my overconfidence, if it made me come across as patronizing or, I hope not, derogatory. In fact, I'd be interested in hearing how you arrived at your insights, if you cared to share that.

 

Looks like you and all the other pollsters need to improve your work.

 

Nail biter there, but I feel vindicated with how close it is.

 

Biden is now ahead in AZ, NV, WI, MI, and ME (statewide).

That's 270, but it could change, but outstanding in WI and MI are mail in and urban areas, which favor Biden.

 

Nope. I miscalculated the level of fraud possible in Democrat controlled states via mail ballot fraud.

 

Thanks. I do have to admit that a few days before the election when I saw the voter turnout numbers, I started to partly believe that there would be a blue wave. But I had some good reasons to be cautious:
1. Polls undercounted the 2016 Trump support. Just that very fact made me distrust the poll numbers, so I added a few percent to Trump's numbers in each state. This had Trump winning in all the swing states except for NV, WI, MI, and PA where Biden had a lead of 4-6% in the poll.
2. Trump supporters may be less likely to respond to pollsters. This may be due to many not wanting to admit to others or themselves that they are Trump supporters. Also, many Trump supporters hate the media and hate polls.
3. Trump had a surge in 2016 and the same could happen again toward the end. We know foreign countries were trying to influence the election again and Republicans would try to dig up dirt on Biden and spread last-minute misinformation.
4. Trump supporters are more likely to vote in person due to the coronavirus. Democrats are more likely to do mail. But mail is harder depending on the state. Some states don't do mail, others make you ask for it first, many people could make an error with their ballot, or ballots may come in late which may be contested in the courts. Also keep in mind that Trump cut funding for our services just in time for the election.
5. Democrats tend to dominate among minorities and young people. These groups have far less voter turnout and are less likely to vote when voting is harder to do. This is why Republicans want tougher voting laws because they know Republicans will push through them, while a lot of democrats will give up or forget.
6. As Michael Moore pointed out, there is a ton of enthusiasm for Trump especially in the swing states. Democrats aren't nearly as enthusiastic about Biden. When your main case isn't that you are great, but that Trump is bad, there is a problem. Michael Moore correctly predicted 2016 and he said Trump would win 2020. I give him some weight.
7. Trump was ignoring social distancing and campaigning aggressively in the swing states. Biden was doing social distancing in his campaigns which handicapped him. This meant a strong turnout for Trump. Trump is just a better campaigner than Biden and he gets much bigger crowds. He also knows how to lie and lie and make promises and lie about Biden.
8. Biden's popularity is actually not much better than Trump's approval. Biden is only slightly more popular than he is unpopular and Trump's approval was 46% which was underwater but not by that much. The fact that almost half of the country likes Trump is pretty unbelievable but very good for him.
9. Biden is a weak candidate. He is a boring mainstream party candidate like Hillary who people don't have a lot of enthusiasm for. His ideas are just mainstream democratic and pretty boring. I didn't see a lot of news articles about his ideas or discussion of him or his ideas. Like usual, Trump hogged the limelight. The democratic party has gone far left and voters fear Biden is just pretending to be more moderate. Mid-American voters don't like Medicare for all, the green new deal, huge spending programs, big taxes increases, or another covid lockdown. He also didn't have much of a message for rust belt voters and how to protect their jobs. His saving grace is that Trump has a lot more problems.
10. The Supreme Court is 6 - 3 conservative and would probably lean toward ruling for Trump if there was a problem.
11. Trump and his supporters were talking about preventing voter fraud and they could take measures to intimidate democratic voters. This is something I realized more recently.
12. Trump was putting a lot of work into wooing black voters. And of course he even got a couple rappers to support him very recently. Also Kanye running might mess things up for Trump. Democrats can't win without huge victories among minorities.

Looking at my assessment, I didn't expect Biden to win Arizona. I also didn't expect Nevada to be this close when Hillary won it in 2016 and Biden would probably do better. I didn't expect Biden to do so well in Georgia, and even though most likely he won't win it, who knows what the mail in ballots will bring. I'm not sure Biden will win Pennsylvania like I predicted.

The Senate is another consideration too. We all knew the Senate would be close but so far it looks like it will be 53 - 47 Republican. with 3 close races. However, mail in ballots could narrow the GOP majority. It is unlikely that democrats will make it to 50, but is possible.

If Biden assumes office he will have a Senate that won't cooperate or he will have no margin for error at the very best. He won't be able to add justices to the Supreme Court. He will have a conservative supreme court that will strike down many of his executive orders. Conservatives will be running conspiracy theories about Biden and his son constantly. He will also be dealing with a troubled economy and a huge deficit. There will probably be a GOP mid-term surge like in 2010. The best we can expect for Biden is that he holds down the fort and prevents anything bad from being passed.

 

@gfm7175

Looks like Biden has the popular vote in the bag. Assuming that holds, you can make your donation to PeopleFund, a non-profit that provides loans for small businesses: https://peoplefund.org/donate/

If some miracle occurs and Trump manages to get the popular vote, let me know where to send my donation.

 

Come on guys I am damn close including with NV.

 

You were extremely close.