Afghanistan in Transition with US Departure.

Interesting point. Will be curious to see what Role China assumes here now.........

 

Recently saw a news article reporting that Pakistan had 'requested' that the Afghani Taliban not provide support and actual start hitting Pakistani militant groups if they operate on the Afgan side of the border. Even money on whether they'll comply of course. On the one hand they really, really, want to legitimize their regime and are acutely aware of the fact that long term that depends on not getting permanently sanctioned out the wazoo like Iran has been. On the other hand ... they have close religious cultural and tribal ties with Pakistani militants.

We'll see what happens.

 

They want to legitimize their regime? Why? They are radical islamists. Their focus is on getting into PARADISE. THIS WORLD means nothing. My I-T (Interpreter-Translator) in Iraq characterized the muslim view of this world as an "entraceway"... merely a "foyer" on the way to PARADISE.

 

Because they're not stupid and this is a new generation of leadership. Islamist or not they're aware they have to keep the lights on, food in the shops and services like hospitals, banks and communications running. Fail? And they can be knocked out by another insurgency. They're already public facing protests because the major urban centers have had a taste of the kind of goods and services the developed world takes for granted. The Taliban have to keep that going or long term their 'national government' will fail/fall and the place will balkanize (again). So they've got one shot at making it work and that needs if not the West's co-operation then at least not its interference.

We'll see how they go. They certainly don't have long. (IMO 6 months to 2 years? to make it work.)

 

Yike!:

 

"Balkanize" is ok for radical islamists. Look at the Balkans. It goes on and on. Its about control, even if starvation reigns.

 

By using competent people who know what they are doing?

Isn't that more or less the Christian view as well?

 

Christians don't kill non-Christians to get to Heaven> I never even heard that suggested. In RADICAL islam, killining infidels (non-believers) is the KEY to entering PARADISE.

 

Your words:
"characterized the muslim view of this world as an "entraceway"... merely a "foyer" on the way to PARADISE." and I responded with isn't that the view Christians have of this life as well?

 

Ok, let's try this again. Christians don't view murdering non-believers as a key to Heaven. Christians are told to live a good and fruitful life, Radical muslims are told that putting bombs on their kids to kill infidels sends them to PARADISE. Christians call that murder and it sends them to HELL. Christians are encouraged to help others, "do unto others as you would have them do unto you", live a long life... not end it in a suicide bombing.

 

Your post that I responded did not go into the nuts and bolts detail of each religion, it addressed the ultimate goal of Islam. Isn't that the same ultimate goal of Christianity? Living by the law to insure a place in each view of paradise in the next life? I didn't address the pros and cons of each, I addressed the one aspect you were, the ultimate goal.

 

So no authorization of force against people blowing us up? Sounds like a ridiculous security policy. Or a nonexistent one.

 

Things in Christianity have improved grately, but back in the day the crusaders did believe that to die on a crusade was an automatic path to heaven, and people were tortured to death foe things like heresy.

The Bible does say unbelievers should be put to death: "bring that man or woman to the gates of the city ... and stone them with stones until they die"

It boils down to how the scriptures are interpreted. Christians, nor Jews, live by the ancient mosaic law. However, radical Muslims intentionally interpret their texts in such way that it can be used to manipulate the gullible to commit atrocities and think they will be rewarded in paradise.

 

Most likely they'll run it right. Sometimes it helps when you don't have all this Freedom and Democracy folderol to deal with.

Hey, maybe they'll dump all their Uighurs there. They're Muslims

 

Maybe China will pour money and people into Afghanistan. Perhaps in 5 years there are 50k Chinese citizens doing all sorts of work in Afghanistan. Of course if that happens, it will greatly diminish our over the horizon capability to stop terrorists there. It's one thing to strike a terrorist apartment in Kabul with a drone strike in current Kabul. But that option becomes an entirely different calculation if the apartment next door is occupied by a Chinese government official and his family.

 

Wouldn't that be nice. Its their turn to keep the radicals in control.

 

Reread my post. Then explain to me how it is not in both China's and the Taliban's interests to fully embrace one another. China gets raw materials, heroin for their revenge opium war, and a passive deterrent to US ability to deal with terrorists staging there, and the Taliban gets money and a deterrent to US drone strikes.

 

I like it. China's and the Taliban can embrace each other and China can spend the money to police Afghanistan as opposed to us doing it. There is no reason why they would allow terrorists to stage there. Remember that the Chinese are infidels and foreign occupiers as well, so they would also be targets.

Of course we all know that they will never fully embrace foreign occupiers, so they would be in same situation there as us, - spend a ton of money have nothing to show for it.

 

How stupid? How about honorable? When someone risks their life for you, you risk your life for them. You don't run immediately. You stay and help them leave. You prove to the Afghans that although your government has no honor, you do.

 

Radical Islam isn't targeting Chinese policy with violence in an effort to influence it. So there is no need for China to police anything; it will be pure business.

 

Once they become the foreign occupiers, they will become targets. Heck, we might even help them fight the Chinese like we did with the Soviets.

 

The embrace won't include Chinese military occupiers. It will be Chinese businesspeople and diplomats. But that alone would drastically alter drone calculus. The Taliban aren't stupid. They won't consider them occupiers. They will recognize the deterrent a Chinese presence offers. And as a bonus, the Chinese are willing to interface without attempting to introduce principles like human rights in their country.

 

We should have known better after seeing what happened to the soviets, and now after 20 years and trillion dollars we should DEFINETLY know the minds of the Afghans, but apparently there are some who will never learn.

No, Chinese business people will not keep us from droning terrorists.

 

US security is absolutely dependent on the stability of the Pakistani government, precisely because they have nukes. Terrorists know this. It's why I think OBL was where he was: to cultivate influential relationships within Pakistan. It's why I suspect other terrorists are doing so. It's why I think that, last I checked, Pakistan experiences more terrorist attacks than anyone. They are promoting instability and positioning themselves to take advantage of it.

The ability for the US to respond to one of the greatest security threats it faces is now greatly diminished.

 

It's simply a worry I have. I'm not saying it's a certainty.