US invasion of China.

Thirty years ago, the Alfa and the Victor II were about the best SSNs the Soviets could deploy and I've read that is more or less the level the Chinese are at.

 

I have no idea what the Alfa and Victor II were capable of. I know one of the Chinese attack subs was able to tail a US carrier undetected so they have made some good strides.

 

Easy to do when

1) It is peacetime with no noticeable international tensions between the two nations.

2) The U.S. is making no effort to detect enemy submarines in the first place.

 

It is doubtfull even that would happen.

Like pretty much all of the Chinese Navy, they have no "Blue Water" experience. They will likely be sunk right where they are sitting.

 

Exactly.

There is one huge difference between detecting subs in peacetime, and during a time of tension.

Sonobuoys.

Those are some of the US's largest ASW tools. And during a time of threat, they would be tossing them out constantly. Like they were a college frat boy tossing out beads for boobs at Mardi Gras. These are highly effective, and they would be using hundreds if not thousands of them in both passive and active modes to detect such threats.

And of course during peacefull transit, they are not going to waste the monry of tossing these out all the time, unless it is for training.

http://www.militaryaerospace.com/articles/2012/01/navy-buys-sonobuoys-from-erapsco.html

Now, can you tell me why they operate at such different depths? Do you know anything about sonobuoys and ASW Giftedone?

 

This is what we are constantly reading from your posts. "I do not know", over and over and over again. But you insist that China would easily destroy any US presence.

Yet you constantly admit you know nothing of what we are really discussing.

Are you suffering from some form of Sinophillia?

 

its not a matter of IF but WHEN like all weapon program it take time to develop and test. if F22 is still in develop phase, are you saying its fantasy? multiple source from basically everywhere indicate china is developing this, and those source are not fox news, but from DoD, defense experts/analysis. a lack of test doesn't not mean it doesn't exist. also china never publicate their test, their entire military is shroud in secrecy. US is not gonna publish any info on DF21D either. unless you work at DoD intel, you can't 100% say its rubbish.

 

the only diffcult part is det/track CVBG in real time under combat condition, and terminal guidance. china is lunch multiple satelite to increase the odd of detecting CVBG. its really matter of WHEN question rather than IF

 

if navy is near china coast then they have the ability to defend themself. most anti-ship missile has decent range. also water near china coast are fill with diesel subs. it does not mean US wont win, but likely there will be casualty.

 

no one know the actuall number of china's ICBM, not even CIA. it could be few dozens or hundred. the strategic force is most secret/protected facilities in any country.

 

You must remember, the chatters on this topic use the power of google to learn the inner workings of the chinese military complex. They are experts, speaking fluent manderin with an outstanding knowledge of the chinese culture.

*sarcasm now turned off*

 

the issue is not about china can match quality and quanity of US DDG but they are narrow the gap with each new version of ship they build. from 52->52A->52B->52C they only build 2 each time to figure the bugs and improvment. with each we seen improvement over the previous version. china interest in taiwan and south china sea. they wont attempt to match US navy, what they doing is anti-access/anti-denial weapons. they continually growing.

http://www.jeffhead.com/redseadragon/planbuildup.htm
http://www.jeffhead.com/aegisvesselsoftheworld/lanzhou.htm
http://www.jeffhead.com/redseadragon/2012.htm

the PLAN growth over the decade is about 140%

 

We can all play that game. Maybe the U.S. has some secret anti-missile capability that the Chinese cannot even fathom.

 

maybe, but we all know china has nuke since 60's. it has plenty time to develop, it has $$$$ to make more, it acquire nuke tech from russia and US. so its not hard to assume they can make alot nuke if they choose to. given these info, we can get a better estimate. china has certainlly the capability, resource, the technology, and engineer to build more nuke. there is a difference between with know information then come to a reasonable conclusion vs No info and pull something out of assss. its same with J20, we know its in prototype phase, which mean they didn't have time to fix all the bugs, or time to build more, so we know they don't have hundreds of j20.

 

There are quite a few photographs on the internet, showing the construction of current PLAN warships....and there are quite a few people who are keeping track of the PLAN expansion...and posting images on the web.
There appears to be more warships being built, as proven by photographic evidence, rather than the numbers being built mentioned by various authorities.
From what ive seen it appears that most (if not all) Chinese major warships are built inside giant sheds, before launch.....and quite often is the case, it has been found that once one warship has been launched, there is another already being built behind in the shed, hence why it has been difficult to calculate how many ships are actually under construction.

What no one seems to of provided evidence yet, is the construction of China's indigenous carrier, reported to being built in a Shanghai shipyard by the Chinese themselves. Apparently they have employed a large number of extra shipworkers at the yard, plus security staff.
Either the Chinese are misleading everyone at present, or maybe if the vessel is in construction it is in too early a stage to be recognised as a carrier, or it is somehow being built somehow under cover.

What do members here think?

 

No, then it is a weapon under development. But it is not yet a produced and fielded weapon.

It is on the way towards being fielded, but when it is under development, it is not yet a true "weapons system".

THAAD is finishing it's test phase, and 2 Batteries of it have been created for Fielding tests. These are operational, their equipment is fully functioning, but they can only be deployed if attached with a larger unit because they do not have all of the infrastructure to be truely "operational".

And every source I have ever seen all says the same things. That it is under development, and that it has never undergone a true test.

And as I have been saying, you can't hide the test of an ICBM. Our satellites pick up such launches within seconds of happening. And they track every missile, where it starts, where it is expected to land, and where it does land.

And most all nations actually tell each other when they are conducting such tests. This is to prevent an accidental escalation of tensions or even nuclear war if a test goes wrong, and suddenly you have an unarmed test missile going out of control towards somebody who does not think kindly of you.

Remember the panic in some people a few years ago when North Korea announced they were going to conduct missile tests, by firing missiles into the Central Pacific.

China is no different. They would announce the test, to ensure that no civilian vessels were in the designated target area. Because the last thing you want to do is fire a DF-21D at a target ship, and accidentially hit an Panamanian flagged cargo container taking car parts to South Korea.

And even if they did not announce it, US satellites would have detected the launch (as well as Taiwan intelligence) and would have announced it to the world.

Oh nonsense. If there was such a "shroud", they would never have announced the development of any of their weapons until they were completed.

China announced this way early for one simple reason: to sell weapons.

This is an extension of their long running DF-21 project. And that missile is already for sale on the open market. By making this as an expansion to the DF-21 system, they hope they can raise interest in other nations. This way they can sell more DF-21s now, and hopefully sell the D expansion to them at a later date.

This is how China has operated for decades. And also typical is the lag of 10+ years between any kind of announcement, and a real operating system.

Look at the history of the Silkworm. First announced in the 1960's, it was not uperational and available for export until the late 1970's. The C-802 project was another with a similar timeline.

Heck, just look at their history of tank production. Since 1961, the US has used 2 main battle tanks, the M-60 and M-1. China has gone through the Type 59, Type 62, Type 69, Type 79, Type 80, Type 85, Type 88, Type 90, Type 96, Type 98, and now the Type 99.

Each one announced while still in development. Each one claimed as the "Best tank in the world". And each made obsolete within a few years by the newest "best tank in the world".

And the PLA has most of these in use. They still have over 300 Type 69 tanks in use. And these are little more then clones of the Soviet T-54 (built in 1947), which they scrapped decades ago. These are the same tanks that Israel walked all over in 1967. This was also one of the most commonly destroyed tanks in the Gulf War (Iraq entered with 1,500 of them, and left with 500).

But this is fairly typical of Chinese weapons announcements and delays. And why they are probably the arms provider of choice for the Third World.

 

But can they track it to within an area of less then 100 meters in real time? And can they guide it in to the same degree of perfection?

Remember, the DF-21 missile already has a CEP of around 50 meters, even when trying to hit a fixed point on the ground with GPS. This time they will be trying to hit a moving target that will be changing it's course and speed from the moment the launch is detected.

All the while trying to avoid incomming missiles trying to shoot it out of the air.

I would not be surprised if this technology is eventually developed, but not for a decade or more.

And I can't imagine the US ever desiring such a weapon. There is a reason why nuclear powers try to avoid the launch of Ballistic Missiles, especially of the Medium to Long Range variety.

It is far to easy to assume such an incomming weapon is a nuclear missile. And it only takes one to start WWIII.

 

Not true.

Ask around here, and you will find that I am probably the most active poster in here whenever the subjects of missiles or missile defense come up. And as far as I am aware, there is only one other person on this board who actually has done that (and still does) for a living.

I am not some kind of "military gadfly", I am a professional in this field, and have been doing this for 5 years now. I can tell you all kinds of things about various missile systems around the world, from the Iranian Shahab series to the Norht Korean Rodong-1. I also study various anti-missile systems, from the Soviet Union/Russia and China to US and other nations.

This is my profession.

And the reason why I go to open sources on the internet to give information is because of security. Because of my clearance, I have to be very careful that what I says does not compromise anything. So by finding a source that matches what I know of a system then providing a link, I prevent any kind of a risk of accidentially releasing something that might be "classified".

Knowing a language or culture does not change facts. I do not know Japanese, but I know what the capabilities are of the newest Mazda cars. I do not know Russian, but I can tell you about how a MiG-31 behaves and appears to a radar operator. I do not know Farsi, but I have tracked Iranian missile launches.

 

Great. So they are closing the gap.

And they have still not caught up with the 20 year old Arleigh Burke class destroyers. Let alone the 10 year old Flight IIA ships of that class.

And great, they build 1 or 2 then improve. We have 61 Arleigh Burke class destroyers.

The PLAN has 25, scattered across 6 main and 1 subclass. Most of those (11) belong to a class that was built in the early 1970's, based on a Soviet design of the early 1950's. All of which have been retired for decades.

So remind me to start getting nervous, in another 20 years.

 

very likely its in VERY early stage. since they only lunch the 1st carrier just now. they want get rid of the kinks before new carriers. its easy to hide carrier module during early stage.

 

This is true. However, we can count the number of building sheds they have, so can have an estimate of the maximum number of ships being built.

And we can detect if there is activity at those sheds. Things like the delivery of large ship steel plates is pretty much impossible to hide. We can watch for activity like this, to get an idea if there is a ship under construction or not. And by watching how long it takes to build a ship, we know how long it may be till the next one is launched.

And we also watch things like how often and what kind of naval operations they are conducting (OPTEMPO). This also can tell us what kind of warfare they are expecting to conduct in the future.

As far as the PLAN, we know exactly what that is. They are not a "Blue Water Navy". In other words, almost all of their operations are conducted in the more shallow coastal waters around their country. They very rarely venture beyond those waters either. It is almost unheard of to find them conducting operations out to sea.

And the vast majority of their ships spend the majority of their time tied up to the docks.

What does this tell us? Well, they are mostly designed to be used in a defensive manner. And rely on being given notice so they can steam out to sea if needed. And since they are rarely at sea, their training and proficiency is likely rather low.

However, if you ever see them starting to increase their OPTEMPO, conducting joint naval and amphibious training, convoys, and actually conducting blue water operations, then it is time to get worried.

 

i already mention china is NOT PLAN to meet US navy ship for ship, it concentrate on south china sea and taiwan.

from early quote

 

once detected, tracking can be done via patrol/satelite/OTH etc. the precise location usually calculate by onboard system. a general location of Carrier has enough info for precise calculation. not too many vessel in that area has that much EM signatures. a midcourse GPS can track carrier within dozen feet, combine with other sensors, the precision will increase.

just like Radar can calculate the exact location of plane or missile once it narrow its search area and raise its resolution. DF21D likely has some kind narrow field of view RF sensor, once location information is update from satelite, it can active its homing RF sensors during terminal phase.

if Radar can track an airplane position from hundread miles away, then its not diffcult to track supercarrier if it was located 1st. the only hard part really is the terminal phase where real time processing is require to continue move missile to the new carrier location at extreme speed, if a general location is not known, then its impossible. the missile might homing on EM from carrier or might be active RF or combination of both.

as for nuke, US can calculate the trajectory of missile, also if US know china has THIS weapon then the 1st assumption will be its ASBM not nuke, US also know china is not that stupid to use nuke in a limited taiwan or south china sea conflict, and china doesn't have first nuke use policy either. base on these info, US will has reasonly confidence that missile is ASBM, therefore will use SM3 to attempt intercept it.

They are not selling DF21D, without satelite sensor etc, its useless

 

China is a long ways away from being able to have a real threat with a Carrier Task Force.

First, they will have to build a large number of ships to protect and service the carrier. At this time, they would be stripping the PLAN dry to try and provide even a half-arsed level of protection for their precious carrier.

Then they have to actually develop a line of aircraft that can operate on the carrier. And at this time, they do not have any. The J-15 (Su-33) is currently being tested, but is not expected to be fielded until 2016 at the earliest.

So providing that nothing goes wrong in the program, expect this carrier to start being a threat in 4-5 years.

Then you have to train the crews. That will take another 3-5 years to get them to any kind of proficiency. Because they are largely going to be creating such programs from scratch, and learning as they go. Much like the US was 80 years ago.

Then of course, there is the issue that they still will not have an "Aircraft Carrier".

Remember, their one operational ship is the Shi Lang (formerly the Varyag). And not even the Soviets considered this an "Aricraft Carrier". With 12 anti-ship cruise missiles and 144 air defense missiles, they considered this to be an "Aircraft Carrying Missile Cruiser".

And with a capacity for only 26 aircraft, the capacity to launch fighters is a fraction of what the US can do. Even the 51 year old (and 3 year retired) USS Kitty Hawk had the capability of carrying over double that number of aircraft into battle.

It will be decades before they are able to put into operation any kind of carrier that might be a threat.

Right now, it is like they are playing around with a copy of the CV-1 USS Langley. And the US is working with a fleet of CV-40 USS Tarawa carriers.

They are making the very first baby steps, and are a long ways away from anything else.

 

carrier is not a coastal water ship. check the china anti-piracy in african coast. they already start venture outside of asia with small number of ships. they are in arming/devlopment phase. if growth like this continue another 10-15yrs, they will become 2nd largest navy in the world.