Will Russia Be Able To Defend Herself Against Chinese Invasion?

Cossacks, i guess,

my answer is NO,

 

Very good analysis. In some ways North Korea has the same relationship with China that Israel has with the United States.

North Korea is useful to China in the short term to the extent it preoccupies America, but in the long term it is a mortal danger to China because North Korea will set South Korea and Japan on a trajectory which will be very unhelpful to China. For everything one gets in life there is something one loses.

If China undercuts the DPRK it faces political collapse of the Norks and the potential flood of refugees. You know this. The only way to stabilize the resulting chaos in NK would be for the PLA to move in an attempt to create order. The problem here is that the North Koreans don't like the Chinese. They recognize a superior people and don't like it. China would face an insurgency and a collapse of relations with South Korea.

If China does not undercut the DPRK something worse will happen. Both Japan and South Korea will become nuclear weapons states. This occurrence would change the balance of power in fundamentally bad ways from the Chinese standpoint.

If China does not undercut the DPRK the Norks will continue on their present path. Their nuclear forces will become more advanced, and they will succeed in making the Taepodong II a truly intercontinental ballistic missile designed exclusively to reach all of North America.

America has three choices under these circumstances, none of which will work. The US could make peace with the DPRK and withdraw from Northeast Asia entirely. This will not save the American homeland from potential nuclear attack because the DPRK intends to proliferate nuclear weapons technology and ICBM technology. America will be attacked by someone using Nork technology.

Alternatively, America can attack the Norks. It would be necessary to fight the Norks using the Mongol way of war. America has no stomach for this. Besides China will not permit this.

Or America could continue on its present course of drift. This alternative will end the same way as the first alternative. An attack on the American homeland by someone using Nork technology.

So where does this leave us? America will be attacked in a devastating fashion, and China will be left to fight the Imjin wars once again, but this time with the Koreans on the side of the Japanese.

We live in interesting times do we not?

 

Thanks for seeing eye to eye with your uncle.

Yes, there may come a day when relations go sour, North Korea will become another Vietnam, turning its gun barrel back at China. It may even throw a few nuclear bombs at some Chinese cities in future conflicts.

In my opinion, China is more concerned with losing North Korea as a buffer state and having to face the potential threat of hostile US troops at its very doorstep.

I don't think the US will allow the proliferation of nuclear weapons. It will be a nightmare for Japan to let the two Koreas own nuclear weapons. Wartime militarist Japan had viewed Korea as "a dagger pointing at its heart". Both countries had fought in the past. If the two Koreas go nuclear, Japan will seek to have its own nuclear weapons.

However, the US will forbid Japan to own nuclear weapons as it may worry that the Japanese will settle score for the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

Russia will abhor a nuclear Japan because of its defeat in the Russo-Japanese War (8 February 1904 – 5 September 1905). China will certainly oppose any scenario of a nuclear Japan because of past Japanese invasions.

North Korea will not want South Korea to achieve nuclear parity. It will most likely launch a pre-emptive attack to prevent the South from owning nuclear arms.

If the Taepodong II can reach all of North America, it can also reach Moscow and all of Western Europe. If the upcoming rocket launch can "impact in an area roughly between Australia, Indonesia and the Philippines", as claimed by Kurt Campbell, the assistant secretary of state for East Asia and the Pacific, the range of the North Korean rocket will cover all parts of China.

As I have said earlier, Korea and Japan are historic rivals. It is difficult for them to forge an effective alliance as they are suspicious of each other. A nuclear Korea will most likely try to finish Japan first.

Not only interesting but dangerous times.

In conclusion, I think the main aim of North Korea in going nuclear is to unite the whole of Korea under its terms. In order to disarm nuclear North Korea, the US may eventually accept the idea of a unified Korea. However, North Korea will reject any unification under the Western democratic system. It will insist a unified Korea, if not under the rule of the Kim Dynasty, at least under the rule of the North Korean Communist Party. Such an idea, of course, is unacceptable to the US and other Western powers.

The ideal solution for the US, China, Russia, Japan and the Koreans themselves maybe to let Korea become the "Switzerland of Asia" -- a truly neutral, nuclear-free buffer zone in Northeast Asia. However, the goal will face a lot of obstacles and take a very long time to attain.

 

As I have voiced my opinion on North Korea, let me speak a few words on Iran. There is no Chinese strategy but only North Korean and Iranian strategies.

If China cannot control North Korea, how can it hope to exercise any control over Iran which is much larger and further away? Iran has been looking to North Korea for aspiration and emulation in going nuclear. The US will find itself facing the same inevitable situation in North Korea and Iran -- either to let both countries attain full nuclear power status or take military action. As shown by the US sanctions against Cuba, sanctions will not deter the nuclear ambitions of North Korea and Iran. Like North Korea, all talks of diplomacy and negotiation are a farce and a waste of time. Like North Korea, time is on the side of Iran. As every second ticks away, Iran will go the same way of North Korea in becoming another nuclear state.

 

Rivers converge.

There is no such thing as gratitude among nations. I expect the Chinese to strike long before the DPRK can act. The North Korean military is thoroughly infiltrated with Chinese operatives.

 

There will be no talks. War is coming. China must lead, follow, or get out of the way.

 

Have you made a typo error in your statement? Should it be not?

As shown in the Korean War, North Korea will have no qualms about inflicting heavy civilian casualties if it launches another war against the South.

There seems to be a significant number of supporters for North Korea in the South. However, those dreamers will be sorry to discover that the North will show no mercy to any South Koreans whether they are supporters or not.

The following data on civilian casualties in the Korean War are taken from the article headlined "Korean War" at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_War

Total civilians killed/wounded: 2.5 million (est.)
South Korea: 990,968
373,599 killed
229,625 wounded
387,744 abducted/missing
North Korea: 1,550,000 (est.)

They should know why that sea looks so yellow. Next, they may even claim the Yellow River.

Uncle is pleased that you still follow the Confucian way of respecting your elder.

 

There is a Chinese tactic of "doing nothing while waiting for the next move of one's enemy". China should stay still like a crocodile in the hustle and bustle over North Korea's rocket launch.

 

No.

The DPRK's conventional forces are no threat to anyone. That's why the Kim Dynasty needs nuclear weapons. The North Korean soldiers are the products of malnutrition.

I know. That's why South Korea is an unreliable ally.

If, as and when the first shot is fired their fate will be sealed.

...

The Yellow Sea and the Yellow River have a distinctive color because the Han urinate in those bodies of water. I've witnessed the phenomenon.

Of course.

 

In America the phenomenon is referred to as "a deer caught in the headlights."

 

Look two generations into the future. What does one see?

Russia faces a conundrum in balance of power geopolitics. It needs China in order to cope with America now. However, as American power wanes, Russia needs America to cope with rising Chinese power in the future.

Russia's problem is that it has poisoned the well with America and will find no American constituency for closer relations with America. America can retreat to the Eastern Pacific. Russia has no where to retreat.

Today, there are six million Slavic Russians between Lake Baikal and the Western Pacific. Immediately to the south are more than 120 million Chinese. Slavic Russian demographics are collapsing.

Since Russia will be alone the very best scenario for Russia is that it becomes a source of raw materials for China. The worst scenario for Russia is that China will annex the Russian Far East in the way Mexico is annexing the American Southwest.

 

I believe that, in the next 20-30 years, Russia will become part of the EU. To me, it seems to be the most logical move for Russia to make.

 

Good point......the Russians do seem to like European culture.

It would certainly make the EU much stronger!

 

The UK, France and Germany wouldn't want Russia to join, and if could only be the parts of Russia west of the Urals. The same way the only part of Turkey that could join would be east Thrace. Would Turkey be willing to give up 10 million people and part of it's largest city? And would Russia be willing to give up most of it's oil and gas reserves to join the EU?

 

Why would they have to do that?

Russia has spoken of a more open market with the EU before now.. hell, they have even talked about mutual defence projects.

of course, there is still tension... and we are not really talking to each other... but I am sure it will all work out in the end!

I predict China will be picking up a lot of its defence trade in the next decade - they will undercut on price and, of course, will have more political and economic power. And Russia cannot ignore that being in the EU will almost certainly be favourable for them economically.

In a changing world it makes sense.. for us and them. it will just be a bitter pill to swallow, for both sides.

 

If say there was an invasion of Russia by the Chinese....does anyone think that any other nations would support either side?

 

EU means European Union, Europe ends at the Urals and the Bosphorus. Islands in the Med or Black sea like Cyprus and Malta can join because they aren't connected to Asia or Africa. The Falklands in international water with a European ethnic and speaking population have more chance of joining the EU than the whole Turkey or Russia. I mean do you really think Europe will accept a muslim nation joining the EU, one that enslaved millions of Europeans in the past, I don't think so. Do you really think the eastern Europeans will accept Russia. Ukrine, Balkan state ok, but not Turkey and Russia. They don't need the EU, Russia has it's attemped at a union and Turkey has the middle east to dominate. Plus the UK hates Russia and France hates Turkey. And any military alliance will be blocked by the US.

 

Central Asian nations would support Russia. China has no allies. China or Russia would no doubt take Mongolia. I would be interesting to see what Japan would do. South Korea, North Korea, NATO wouldn't support a side.

 

Your right, Russia doesn't need the EU.... But it will.

Remember, I said 20-30 years. The tensions between Russia and the UK are all a legacy of the Cold War and will die off.

The US has pretty much, economically and politically, plateau'd. China continues to grow. China will start to take Russia's main economic and political export. Russia will continue to become more westernised. The cold war will be a some-what distant memory.

And what exactly would the US do about it? The EU knows this is the way forward. Look at the Gallileo project - The US didn't like that either. Its still happened though

Of course the option will be a real one.

 

Taiwan would probably help Russia out, I reckon. Apart from that, it would be quite a risk for anyone else to get involved!

 

Taiwan are you joking?

 

I agree Russia will need the EU, but only Russia west of the Urals could join the EU. Because the rest of Russia and those people aren't European.

 

If Turkey gets to join the EU then your Russian argument falls a bit flat. Turks are not Europeans,well not the ones who live on the Asian side.

 

Russia, at least not currently, would crush the Chinese in a conventional war.
(and Nuclear but I am assuming we are leaving that option off the table)

Anything good that the Chinese have was purchased from Russia.

 

The Russian armed forces are like a Potemkin Village except for their nuclear forces. This became clear in the Russo-Georgian War.