The GOP Is Dying Off. Literally.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/st...-dying-off-literally-118035.html#.VVnSqPlViko

If it is actually true, it is not the GOP's problem - or at least it is not only their problem. Without proper political competition Democratic party is going to rot in no time. It happened a lot of time and in different places. A political system with one dominant party is bound to fail at some point. Lack of external competition means there is no need to develop and become better over time. Look, what's the point of democracy, representation and fair elections if the result is already known?

 

If history is any indication of what will happen next, there will be a new party that will emerge. Just because the GOP can't do anything anymore doesn't mean that a new party can't form.

 

Ahem! Forgetting about all those millions upon millions of White-Hispanics that the Left urinated all over during the Zimmerman trial and how Barack of Dem Party fame played ethnicity favorites by HOWLING, "If I had a son he would look like Tayvon" while ignoring that George was a Brown Latino? Do leftists really think that Latinos didn't notice? They are increasingly feeling alienated by the Left which pays attention to them ONLY when it is time for them to vote for Dem Party politicians.

Then too there is the fact that the GOP utterly creamed the Dem Party in both mid term elections. Pretty spry for a dying party, eh? In point of fact the Dem Party has been hemorrhaging youth members since Barack's second term of office. Granted that most of them have gone from being Democrats to being political Independents; but the key thing about a political independent is that he or she is as likely to vote for a Republican as a Democrat.

Finally those of us paying attention at the time noted that back in 2008 and then again in 2012 the Dem Party leadership and its hordes of Left aligned journalists and pundits of the nation's Mainstream Media chortled that the GOP was going to be crippled for a generation to follow and that the conservatives were finished as a meaningful political or ideological influence in this nation . . . and then each time the GOP shellacked the Dems in the mid terms. So . . . it . . . goes.

 

Have you noticed how hard it is for a third party to get representation in the US? There is a huge number of limitations for each and every newcomer in American political system. Electoral College is one of them. Don't you think Democratic party will ensure its dominance - even if temporary - and accumulate enormous financial resources by then? Possible disintegration of the GOP is a bad sign for all of us, even liberals.

 

It's obviously true that aging voters are dying -- from both parties.

Harvard did a study, however, that showed millenials who truly PLAN to vote - are not all grouped in the Democratic camp.

http://www.iop.harvard.edu/likely-m...ng-midterm-elections-harvard-youth-poll-finds

The truth is - it's too soon to tell how the ball will roll, although, if it's true that the Democratic Party is becoming the party of racial minorities, it stands to reason that they will not be too impressed by white candidates. Can Hillary really motivate them?

 

Thanks for a thoughtful post, sir. The problem is not the GOP itself, the problem is American public that leans to the left too much recently.

 

Anything is possible, but here is the history of party affiliation:

Pew Research for the 1936-2002 numbers/Gallup for 2004-Today

Year…Dem…Rep…Ind…Ind.Lean.Dem….Ind.Lean.Rep…..True.Ind
1936…51……30……19
1940…50……32……18
1944…47……35…..18
1948…48……32…..20
1952…40……35…...25
1956…45……30…..25

1960…51……25…..24
1964…52……24…..24
1968…44……28…..28
1972…45……26…..29
1976…51……21…..28
1980…48……24…..28
1984…40……30…..30
1988…34……26…..40
1992…33……27…..40
1996…33……28…..39
2000…33……28…..39
2002…32……31…..37
2004…35……33…..30…………12……………………13………………..5
2006…34……29……36………..18…………………...10…………………8
2008….37…..26…..35…………15…………………….9…………….…11
2010…32……33…..34………..12……………………15…………………7
2011…30……27…..42………..18……………………15…………………9
2012…35……30…..33………..16……………………12…………………5
2013…30……24….44………..14…………………..18………………..13
2014…31……27….40………..14…………………..14………………..12
2015…28……27….44………..14…………………..17………………..13 As of Mar 9, 2015

 

Thanks for the article attached.
We will see if Hillary is good enough for them. I am afraid 2016 elections are already settled. There is no real alternative to Clinton this time. Not because she is the best one, of course, but because she managed to grab as much power and influence as possible. She is a woman though. Believe it or not, a lot of people in the US still make politically important decisions based on candidate's ethnicity and gender. 'Truly liberal'.

 

I agree, I do not want the repub party to go away, if it did, all republicans would just become blue dogs and that would just confuse voters

 

I think many of the extremists (taking the spotlight today), will fade to the background as more moderates and centrists take their places, in the years to come.

Extremists typically end up causing themselves to be marginalized.

 

They couldn't when the Whigs fell apart, and I doubt they can do it now. There are a lot of problems for third parties yes, but think about how a party is formed in the first place. It's a massive coalition, third parties by comparison are a lot smaller.

 

That new party is likely to be an extreme left party. That is where the young and the Hispanics hang out.

 

The GOP of today is the "angry white man" party, and it has no future.

The average viewer of Bill O Reilly's program is over 70, and Limbaugh's average listener is a 68 year old white man.

Archie Bunker politics is slowly running its course.

That doesn't mean the end of conservatism.

There will always be pro business conservativism (country club Republicans).

And there will also be the nativist, zenophobic, and often racist lunatic fringe. One never knows where they'll turn up.

There is no chance of a third party emerging. Not unless we have comprehensive campaign and electoral reform, and take the power to run elections away from the parties. Until then, the two parties will function as a sort of shadow government.

 

Here's an easier to read chart of the Gallup poll, going back to 2004:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

You can see the damage that George W. Bush did to the GOP brand -- by the time he left office, GOP identification (including leaners) had fallen to 35%, down from from 48% in 2004.

Today Dems plus leaners have almost an outright majority (47%), with the GOP stuck at 38%, even with leaners.

Things can change, of course. But there's a reason the GOP has only done well in mid-terms (when turnout is smaller and base-focused), and has flat-out sucked during presidential years (when turnout is higher, and does a better job of reflecting overall national views).

I always get a chuckle over conservatives claiming a mandate because they can win mid-terms, while ignoring the fact that they lose the more-meaningful presidential cycles.

 

That would assume the Democrat Party would not become as left-wing as possible if their respective voting groups drifted towards that direction. On the contrary, there is no limit to how far to the left they would go as a party.

- - - Updated - - -

Identity politics and welfare bennies are obviously strengths for the Democrat party. The ones who vote for these issues probably don't even know that mid-term elections exist.

Maybe they can run an ad campaign down in Mexico so that these future voters will be well informed by the time they get here.

 

You forgot "Get off my lawn!"

 

But they vote, and they're very politically active. Meanwhile, millenials don't seem to care.

 

The GOP is enjoying a period of resounding success. They have 31 governorships and they have been increasing their lead in state legislator for several election cycles now. The only real trouble they have had is in their Presidential races. What is dying off are social conservative luddites and twits. Their takeover of the Tea Party allowed for Libertarians to come into the GOP and begin that takeover. Millenials show strong libertarian tendencies rejecting the social dogma of the social conservatives but also rejecting the economic and fiscal policies of the left and the foreign policies of both sides. The GOP is changing and adapting and we see concrete movement when the Nevada state GOP dropped gay marriage from their platform. Unless the Democrat party adapts they are the ones that are going to have a hard time.

In fact the reason the recent candidates have struggled is precisely because they pandered to the social conservatives and they no longer have the clout to deliver wins anymore. Barrack Obama should have been easily beatable but they put up a weak candidate who pandered to the luddite crowd and who went extreme on immigration.

 

I don't know, I can see the case for it. But I would say that in the end it would a right party that would emerge. But I could be wrong.

 

Ah, Gallup is out with a new entry finally. I will have to correct my chart and for that I thank you. Yep, you are correct for this month's party affiliation. But Party Affiliation is dynamic and it changes all the time. Next month it maybe just the opposite, a month ago my figures were correct.

It is good to follow party affiliation. I think it tells a lot where the country stands. I do not think any election gives either party a mandate. Recently an election just shows which political party the electorate are madder at. 2008 the voters were mad at Republicans, 2010 they were mad at Democrats, 2012 back to being a bit peeved at Republicans as 2012 was basically a status quo election. 2014, the voters were back at being mad at Democrats.

It is my opinion that by the time the new congress takes office, 2 months has passed and the electorate may have changed which party they were mad at during that time.

I think it is more important to keep track how independents have grown vs. the two major party strengths. The fact is most Americans dislike both parties. More than half of all Americans look unfavorably on both parties. It is not a case anymore of which party you like the most, it is a case of which party you dislike the least.

 

Youre probably right.

There was no competition in Detroit nor Baltimore, and look how they turned out.

 

I'd say it's more likely that we'll have a restructuring of sorts. What turns a lot of people off about the GOP is their social conservatism. They claim to be for small government, yet their social views don't match up with that.

 

The GOP will change with the times. Both parties have been proclaimed out of touch and dead many times before. The issues change. I do think that the GOP will become more libertarian.

 

No, it's not true. I've been hearing this same repetitive hyperbolic nonsense for decades now, and if I had a dollar for every time some bigoted intolerant liberal drooled over this thought then I'd be richer than Bill gates.

It's just an asinine article from an incredibly bigoted and intolerant and racist liberal.

Nothing more.

 

Well I think we need to consider here that Politico is insanely liberal. So of course it is there hope that the GOP dies, but that's because many columnists are liberal bullies disguised as wise warriors of justice. I'm an 18-year old, and have yet to vote in an election. However, I love following politics and cannot wait to vote. I can tell you the GOP is not dying, rather a new generation of young people like me will take their place and continue to work for a better USA.