Re-electing Trump 2020 and current shutdown

You'll see about the short memories of most Americans. The ones who will remember it are the anti Trumpers who wouldn't vote for him anyway. Everyone, political pundits and prognosticators always make each and every event, happening as a game changer. But two weeks after the event, the numbers revert to what they were prior to any event or happening. They're always wrong. Wrong if the event, happening doesn't occur close to an election.

You can check Trump's approval numbers which basically haven't changed since the shutdown began. People have already made up their minds about him. You have 82% of Republicans approving of Trump, 90% of democrats disapproving. No change among those highly partisan and those who affiliate with both major parties since the shutdown began. Question 72

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1xbksrgzje/econTabReport.pdf

Independents were at 38% approval when the shutdown began, now at 37%, no change when one considers the margin of error.

Matter of fact Trump has been between 41% and 44% since Jan 2018. Never above 44%, never below 41%. Nothing he does or doesn't do has changed those numbers, no event, no happening, no stances on issues or policy. You're either for Trump, love him or hate him, against him. No in-betweens.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

 

Your point is well taken. Reversion to the mean is a concept that has certainly proven true for trump. His approval rating, on RCP, was lower at the end of 2017 than it is currently, but not by very much.

But there are two issues at play here that I think warrant further consideration as to why this event may be different. First, the inevitable compromise over the shutdown could lead to a massive erosion of Trump's most loyal remaining supporters without significantly attracting a median group (the independents) to replace. As you mention, the sheer polarization of trump's approval means that you either love him or hate him. Reduce the number of individuals who love him because he has gone "soft" on his signature issue, and you are unlikely to convince those who hate to switch.

Second is the overall trend of his policies on the economy. The shutdown is already have a massive downward drag on GDP, as are trade policies. There is a reason that many economists were downgrading projections even before the shutdown. At Davos, the survey of those who expected a recession next year saw a 25 point jump, primarily led by US CEOs. The consumer confidence index saw one of its biggest drops, year to year, in a decade. And trump's resiliency, to date, can significantly be linked to the performance of the economy. If the economy drops, then support for Trump is very likely to follow.

And, like George W. Bush and Richard Nixon and Jimmy Carter have shown, once support drops below a critical mass, the chance for recovery drops precipitously.

 

Some supposedly not getting paid are Air Traffic Controllers and TSA. How long will they continue to work without a paycheck before they go find employment elsewhere. They still have bills to pay.
And who will hire on, working without a paycheck?

 

The longer the govt stays shut down, the more folks will want it to stay that way.

There shouldn't be any nonessential personel.

 

Lying and cheating, how could you not vote for tRUMPy?
And if ortez, is Cortez, she won't be old enough to run. Informed tRUMPer? eh!!

 

Trump won because independents disliked Hillary more than they disliked Trump. Still, Trump won independents 46-42 with 12% voting third party. That 12% disliked both major party candidates so much they were willing to vote for someone they didn't know, they knew didn't have a chance to win, just another name on the ballot. But more importantly, that name wasn't Trump nor Clinton.

Trump's support among independents have eroded quite a lot. It's independents that he is losing, not his avid supporters. Maybe if Trump fails on his signature issue, some of those avid Trumpers will fall by the wayside. Again, perhaps not. Trump will blame the Democrats in congress, I have a feeling most Trumpers will buy that. Trump blamed congress for the defeat of the repeal of Obamacare. Among his supporters that worked.

I don't know. I'm not in either column, not a pro Trumper nor an anti Trumper. Now repercussions over something like this, the shutdown, the wall, they usually last a couple to three weeks. Then things revert back to where they were prior to the event, happening. Usually. Some other hot issue or a major event happens to come forth in the news, takes the headlines away, the shutdown becomes ancient history.

Will it play out that way as most of these things have in the past. Probably, but one can never be sure. Then again, where else would the avid Trumpers go?

 

it's not illegal, ergo not lying nor cheating

metaphor to drive the point... something dems should have recognized