THE UKRAINIAN ARMY HAS BEEN DEFEATED. WHAT’S LEFT IS MOP-UP

BTW, Kherson has been liberated.

 

Reports indicate Ukrainian troops are cautiously entering Kherson and have put up Ukraine's flag over the city's administrative center. If true that the Russians didn't choose to leave small units to bloody and harass the Ukraine forces entering the city, and simply decided to hand it over without a fight or any plan to exact significant costs, I have to again question their tactical and strategic acumen. But is a bit too soon to be sure. Israel declared it had captured Bint Jbeil several times, before it learned it hadn't.

 

Keep on drinking that kool-aid man . . . you're just digging that hole deeper.

 

Unlike you, I ultimately have no dog in that fight. From day 1, I have explicitly questioned Russian tactics and strategy. I assumed their new commander would do better but if it turns out that he couldn't put together a force that could be as small as 200-300 committed soldiers armed with TOW missiles and such, with some good snipers, and have them exact enough casualties for Ukraine to decide it can't waltz into the city without any resistance, then either the Russians aren't committed enough to be in this fight in the first place or they have no clue or both. In either case, unless Iranian armaments and tactics are involved, I am on neither side.

 

Russia is in retreat in every major international forum
Opinion by David Ignatius

". . . The Russian military has made some stunning mistakes on the battlefield — in Kyiv, Kharkiv and now Kherson. But Russia’s diplomats may have fared even worse. Russia is in retreat in every major international forum. Putin imagined this war would bring him greater global influence. It has instead been an epic disaster."

 

Ukraine war: Russians kept in the dark by internet search

 

B-b-b-b-b-but the Ukrainian Army has been defeated! All that's left is mop-up!



Man, this thread aged well, didn't it?

 

They should hold another referendum in kershon lol

 

So, thanks to Yandex, even the internet in Rashka is Orwellian.

 

Would love to hear the usual Kremlin trolls try and explain this one.

 

When they lost Lyman, local clown @Destroyer of illusions explained here, that all is going according to plan. But lately on my question, " does all is going according to plan, still?", he keeps silence.

 

I'm sure there's more to the story since I served in Bint Jbeil 1997-98.

 

Serious problems on the Russian home front.
The Independent Barents Observer |
As military collapse looms, Murmansk church leader says 'End of Time' is near

 

I think you consistently give the Russians too much credit, dog in the fight or not.

 

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 12

Click here to read the full report.
Key Takeaways

• Russia’s withdrawal from Kherson City is igniting an ideological fracture between pro-war figures and Russian President Vladimir Putin, eroding confidence in Putin’s commitment to and ability to deliver on his war promises.
• Russian officials are increasingly normalizing the public and likely illegal deportation of thousands of Ukrainian children to Russia.
• The Russian military leadership is trying and failing to integrate ad hoc military formations into a more cohesive fighting force in Ukraine.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the direction of Kreminna and Svatove.
• Ukrainian forces continued to liberate settlements on the right (western) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in the direction of Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Vuhledar.
• Russian officials may be trying to avoid providing military personnel with promised payments.
• Russian forces and occupation officials continue to endanger residents and subject them to coercive measures. . . .

Desertion remains a challenge for Russian forces as morale continues to drop. The Ukrainian Resistance Center stated on November 12 that Russian commanders are actively searching occupied Horlivka for deserters who fled Ukrainian counteroffensives in now-liberated Kharkiv Oblast.[55] Commanders reportedly issue weapons to discovered deserters, force them to purchase ammunition, and redeploy them to the southern front.[56] The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) released an audio intercept on November 12 in which a Russian soldier tells his mother that Russian commanders do not care about the lives of their personnel and that one commander told the rank-and-file soldiers they will all die anyway.[57] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian authorities in occupied Henichesk instituted a prohibition on alcohol in response to deteriorating moral and psychological conditions among soldiers in occupied territories.[58] . . .

 

Wives of Russian soldiers showed up at Ukraine border and demanded to take their husbands home, report says

Business Insider

 

....and what do you think now....Uke artillery has set up and is now shelling Russian positions and Uke SF seem to have secured footholds now in the Eastern bank....

 

I have no idea why it won't let me insert an image. My apologies.


Anyway, I don't believe Ukrainians have set up positions on the eastern bank of the Dniper in Kherson. It just wouldn't make any sense at all.

The next objective will be to secure Donetsk. This will cutoff the main supply routes to Mariupol which go north from Rostov to Donetsk then turn south to Mariupol. The other route to supply Mariupol is across the bridge at Kerch to Crimea. North through Crimea then East across Kherson and Zaporizhia before finally reaching western Mariupol.

 

So Ruski bombuli have bigger brass one than Russian men?

 

The fact that the Russians chose to totally withdraw from the city (Kherson) without leaving behind a force to bloody, harass and seriously impede (if not stop) the UAF from comfortably taking over the city tells me the Russians aren't committed enough to win this fight. But my view that the fate of this war will not ultimately be decided on the frontlines in Kherson has not changed: I don't see Ukraine having the forces and means to win over most of the territories it claims.

Consequently, I am still of the view that this war will ultimately end with a negotiated ceasefire (but without a peace agreement), leaving Russia in control of large chunks of territory claimed by Ukraine. The boundaries at the time of the ceasefire akin to the DMZ in the Korean peninsula, with the real fight thereafter political, geopolitical and economic: between a Russia seeking friends and allies in the East and South, with SCO becoming the vehicle for many to avoid US/NATO hegemony; against a US/NATO that will continue to seek to expand to fulfill a 3-fold quest to (a) fill the coffers of its associated special interest groups; (b) make sure the credibility and authority of the issuer behind the paper-money, Ponzi-scheme, financial economic order isn't jeopardized; and (c) keep creating and maintaining the necessary tensions to justify its existence organizationally and its stranglehold geopolitically.

 

Once Donetsk is secured this means any Russian troops in Mariupol will have to be supplied through Crimea. The bridge at Kerch is the only route from Russia into Crimea (a bottleneck for supplies and a key target for Ukraine). Ukraine will push south from Donetsk attacking towards Mariupol. This will serve to draw and hold Russian forces in Mariupol. In parallel Ukraine will then push from Zaporizhia south taking Melitipol. Russian forces engaged in Mariupol will find the advances in Melitipol put them in jeopardy of having their supply lines cut surrounding all their forces in Mariupol. They will be forced to make another hasty retreat back into Crimea (a natural defensive line).

It is important to understand the current situation. There are 2 bridges across the Dniper at Kherson. Both were destroyed by HIMARS attacks. The only other crossing point across the Dniper in the region is the Nova Kakhovka Dam (NE of Kherson city) on the Dniper river. There is a HUGE reservoir behind the dam with a roadway across the top. This was the only remaining access from Crimea and southern Kherson into the northern Kherson region to supply Russian forces in northern Kherson. In fact, it was advances by Ukrainian forces towards this last remaining supply route which forced the Russians to make the decision to evacuate before they lost most of their Southern Army. If Ukraine took the northern side of the Nova Kakhovka Dam the Russians would have been cutoff only to "wither and die on the vine". But they were under constant heavy pressure along the western banks of the Dniper and from Ukrainian forces from Mykolaiv pressing on Kherson city itself. It is difficult to disengage in order to enact a retreat. The decision made by the Russians was to throw newly recruited conscripts into the fight, sacrificing them while their hard-line veterans hastily retreated back across the dam. Once their veteran forces retreated across the river, they blew the bridge accesses to the dam (not the dam itself) on the Russian side of the Nova Kakhovka dam (Watch: Russian media shows footage of explosion at Nova Kakhovka dam in Kherson | Metro Video). This left the 25,000 to 50,000 newly recruited recently arrived Russian conscripts stranded to their own fate. It is important to note the Russians did not blow the Dam itself, rather they blew the bridges connecting to the roadway across the top of the dam. Had they (and they could have) blown the dam itself it would have resulted in a devastating loss of life as the entire reservoir would have flooded Kherson. It also would have been a major violation of the Geneva convention and would have hardened Western resolve to put more military and economic pressure on the Putin dictatorship. Possibly even direct conflict for such an agregious war crime.
With the 2 bridges at Kherson City and the route across the Nova Kakhovka dam now impassable the opposing forces are both positioned at a naturally defensive line. Little further progress can be achieved over the Dniper river in the Kherson area. Once Ukraine solidifies control of Donetsk the Russians will have to supply Mariupol by road and rail through the Crimea (utilizing the bridge to Kerch). A significantly longer supply line. Ukraine will then engage the Russian forces in Mariupol holding them in place while they push south into Melitopol along the Russian's left flank. With their supply lines in jeopardy Russia will once again be forced to throw tens of thousands of Russian recruits into Mariupol to allow their mainline forces a chance to escape the closing pocket. From here, defenses along the eastern Kherson region (and indeed all Russian forces in Kherson) will retreat back into Crimea. The defensive line between Kherson and Crimea is almost ideal and I believe it is here a stalemate of sorts will result. Neither side being capable of passage.
The only question in doubt now is how many lives will be lost both civilian and military and what will come about from diplomatic talks.
It is unclear what will transpire in Luhansk. Once Mariupol, Melitopol and the entire Kherson and Zaporhizia regions have been liberated and the Crimea in stalemate the only other Ukrainian territory in question will be Luhansk. My best guess is at this point negotiations will have some hope of moving forward. Unclear whether Crimea will be returned, though I believe Luhansk too will be recaptured at some point.
Note: From the northern banks of the Sea of Azov HIMARS and MLRS will certainly be in range and will take out the bridge to Kerch.
See battlemap Interactive Map: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (arcgis.com)

 

Ukraine does have the ability and I believe it will regain the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions. It will not do this across the Dniper in Kherson. The fighting in Kherson for the near future will consist of Russian artillery barrages over the Dniper. Both sides are located across the natural boundary of the Dniper with no bridge accesses intact. The Russian retreat from Kherson City had nothing to do with "the Russians aren't committed enough to win this fight". It had to do with the fact they were about to lose their only supply route and only method of retreat if they continued. They were in jeopardy of losing 200,000 of their veteran troops. So, they withdrew their veterans and as much equipment as they could and got the hell out of Kherson City, throwing their conscripts into the battle to cover their retreat. Basically, abandoning their expendable conscripts.
After Donetsk is secured, Ukraine will advance on Mariupol and Melitopol (about 45 and 25 miles respectively). The most important of which is Melitopol. Fighting has increased and is now occurring inside Melitopol between Russian separatists and Ukrainian loyalists. Fighting along the frontlines south of Zaporizhia towards Melitopol is also ramping up. In fact, much of the Russian forces evacuated from Kherson are headed for Melitipol and Mariupol. Similar troop movements of Ukrainian forces from Kherson city towards Zaporizhia can also be expected. This battle for Melitopol will likely be one of the last decisive battles of the war. Its conclusion is all but guaranteed as it seems the Russians do not possess the military wherewithal to fight effectively. Their troops don't believe in the cause, morale is low, and leadership is a joke.

 

Russia could have retreated its main forces, but left behind smaller units armed with TOWs and snipers and such to harass, bloody and ambush UAF forces in an urban setting. They didn't because they probably couldn't find even the 500-1,000 troops with sufficient zeal, motivation and commitment for that kind of a fight.

 

Interesting analyses and prediction.

 

The fascist RuZZian Army sure got mopped up in Kherson. How do our local Russian propagandists like them apples?