Running Newsticker for the War in Ukraine

Russia under Putin is in a very bad place. This is historically unprecedented for Russia.

"A pariah state (also called an international pariah or a global pariah) is a nation considered to be an outcast in the international community. A pariah state may face international isolation, sanctions or even an invasion by nations who find its policies, actions, or even its very existence unacceptable." Wiki

 

they made it....yay....

 

He is right.

 

(333) Dnipro-Bridgehead reinforced with IFVs? Famous Russian Milblogger is very pessimistic for Russia! - YouTube

 

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 7, 2023

Click here to read the full report.
Key Takeaways:

• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces transferred a limited number of armored vehicles to the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast and are continuing larger-than-usual ground operations on the east bank with a light infantry grouping of roughly battalion size.
• Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on November 7.
• A prominent pro-war Russian milblogger who is typically optimistic about Russian capabilities expressed a relatively pessimistic assessment of the war and emphasized the need for the Kremlin to fully mobilize the Russian economy and defense industrial base (DIB) to a wartime footing to win.
• Russian authorities detained Republic of Dagestan's deputy Minister of Internal Affairs on the pretext of corruption charges, likely in an effort to demonstrate that the federal government is taking action in Dagestan without drawing further attention to the interethnic and interreligious tensions and the propensity for destabilization in the region.
• The Ukrainian strike on a Russian shipyard in Kerch, occupied Crimea on November 4 significantly damaged a Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) naval vessel.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly advanced in some areas.
• A Russian battalion comprised of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) will likely deploy to Ukraine in the near future in an apparent violation of the Geneva Convention on Prisoners of War.
• Kremlin-appointed Commissioner on Children's Rights Maria Lvova-Belova advertised several benefit schemes targeting children in occupied Ukraine as part of the "A Country for Children" strategic program. . . . .

Ukrainian forces continued offensive actions near Bakhmut on November 7 and reportedly advanced. A Russian milblogger claimed on November 6 that Ukrainian forces crossed the railway near Andriivka (10km southwest of Bakhmut).[31] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on November 7 that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Rozdolivka (18km north of Bakhmut), Minkivka (15km northwest of Bakhmut), and Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut).[32] A Russian milblogger claimed that there are positional battles in the Soledar direction north of Bakhmut.[33] . . . .

 

...heaping fresh fuel of the stumbling Russian economy....

If POD is watching this thread then I assume we'll be having a youtube video showing that everything is happy and well in the land of putin...

Was reading a report yesterday that Russian engineers are having problems with maintenance and stabilisation at their far north refineries and production facilities since the western oil companies all moved out...they don't have the neccessary personel with the requisite training and expertise or sufficient spares and equipment.... and all that oil industry techy stuff...software and progam updates etc etc that they need to maintain their facilities in the north now that serious winter is approching again...never mind....I assume they have plenty of gaffer tape

 

...the rate of Inflation was a red herring used as a narrative by the Central Bank to justify the 130bps rise in interest rates earlier in the year - they used that as a short term fix to try and control the Rubbles exchage rate against the USD..inflation is Russia is not any worse that other CE countries...based on the construct of the Russian Economy in full war mode this makes no sense as most consumption is by the military ego the military budget is financing the Central banks support of the curency....ever decreasing circles.....

 

This will make Putin unhappy.

The Telegraph
Ukraine-Russia war latest: Ukraine formally recommended for EU

 

...looks like UAF have created an air defence bubble over the east bank of the river which should provide some more defence for their small bridgehead...?

 

...I think this is the only developement Tom Clancy didn't include in "Red Storm Rising" everything else that has transpired in this whole fiasco was almost all in his book....in fact it's almost a copy of the book....

 

...he's back!!!

 

...this fat bastard was sent to the knackers yard today.....

..comment on this news from BSM Williams is expected shortly......

 

This is well worth a read...if you have 15 mins to spare....

AND....as some of us have been banging on for some time now....

......

....I've said it before and I'll say it again and I'll continue to say it.... but I'm convinced that China will take Siberia and Eastern Russia by 2027....forget Taiwan it's piffling little island....China lacks any resources with Eastern/Northern Russia having a f**k ton of them....it's loaded....I'm convinced Xi sees an opportunity ....China is helping to prolong this war so as to exacerbate the breadth of the collapse of Moscow rule and capitalise on the inevitable free-for-all thereafter....anyway enough of my crap

Link to the article...

 

I think that is a good chance.

 

nice gesture from Belgium.....lots of chatter on Telegram about continued corruption in Ukraine....see where this ends up.....

 

I've seen this opinion thrown around here from a few posters and I find it absurd. Like, where did you get this nonsense about China and Siberia? This would result in an immediate nuclear war. I'm anti-Russia btw.

The reason China won't do anything like that is the same reason that NATO doesn't just attack Russia outright. Russia's military is a joke but they still have nukes and they would use them if anyone tried to take a chunk of Russia proper.

 

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 8, 2023

Click here to read the full report.
Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on November 8.
• Select Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian commanders may be making operational and tactical decisions using maps of the battlefield in Ukraine that differ from tactical reality.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin promoted 44 Russian military and internal affairs officers, including Eastern Grouping of Forces Commander Andrei Kuzmenko, to general officer rank on November 8.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin will reportedly avoid centering his 2024 presidential campaign on the war in Ukraine and will rather focus on Russia’s alleged stability and criticisms of the West.
• Ukrainian partisans and military intelligence assassinated a prominent Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) official accused of conducting war crimes in occupied Ukraine.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in western Donetsk Oblast, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on November 8 and advanced in some areas.
• Russia is reportedly attempting to reacquire components for military equipment from states to which it previously sold the equipment, including Egypt, Pakistan, Brazil, and Belarus.
• Russian occupation administrations continue to create new administrative bodies meant to further integrate occupied territories into Russian governance systems. . . . .

Ukrainian forces reportedly made marginal gains during counterattacks near Avdiivka on November 8. A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces achieved partial success while counterattacking Russian positions near Vodyane.[42] . . . .

 

Oh sure it probably is absurd..but so are many things which actually come to pass as we are seeing now with russia/Ukraine.
Long story short.... There are more subtle ways of obtaining control over territory than the "Red Storm" option favoured by Russian Generals...for example you can already see the kind of ground laying with the Mongolia/China relations...likewise Mongolia through its actors and NGOs reaching out to Mongols to defy Russia, giving safe haven to draft dodgers and encouraging them to desert from Ukraine. Don't forget its the Mongols that are taking the brunt of the meat grinders and suffered the most casualties as they aren't part of putin's view of pure ethnic russia.
When putin goes there will be opportunities, the same opportunities that saw the rise of the oligarchs post soviet break-up...it'l be a free for all. Russia is a cleptocracy held together by fear applied by putin's FSB who are totally loyal to him. Take putin out of the equation and you effectively have choas as oligarchs position themselves, flee or consider their options. At this point all options are open as Moscow is not Russia and China will not declare war on Moscow because they won't need to....and even if they did...do you think Xi would care about the consequences? I'm not sure he would.....there'd be narratives in place already to cover most angles.
But sure..absurdity it may be... but I bet by 2027 China has control over Siberia

 

Only if it can be done with minimal resistance.
France eventually sold the Louisiana Territory.

 

I appreciate you expanding on this, but I just don't see it. When Putin dies another autocrat will take over and the Russian people will remain patriotic and won't allow any breakup of the country. Whoever assumes control will retain control of the military. Even the Far East district of Siberia is over 80% ethnic Russian.

Oligarchs would try to steal material resources but don't see them trying to form breakaway regions (resulting in civil wars). Besides, China is already surrounded by unfriendly countries with territorial disputes, why enter such a messy conflict (even if subtle) when they can and will just exploit Russia economically anyway.

 

Good arguments, but borders can shift fast. Check out maps of Europe and Asia over just the last two centuries.
Over the course of a few decades Harbin became a Russian city, a Chinese city, a Japanese city, a Chinese city -- again.

The PLA attacked Soviet border troops in 1969. Tielieketi was ultimately ceded to China in 1990.

 

with English undertitle.
Very interesting.

(335) Neue Vorstöße der Ukraine, ATACMS-Raketen im Einsatz | Militärökonom Keupp bei ZDFheute live - YouTube