Running Newsticker for the War in Ukraine

Good news! ATACMS in action again.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 30, 2024

Click here to read the full report with maps
Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces did not make any confirmed advances in the Avdiivka area on April 30 for the first time in several days, while Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces conducted several more attacks in the Bakhmut-Chasiv Yar direction than near Avdiivka.
• Russian forces may decide to push from their salient north of Avdiivka towards the Toretsk area to complement Russian offensive operations near Chasiv Yar, which would likely require Russian forces to conduct a tactical pause to concentrate forces for such a drive.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a short-range MGM-140 ATACMS strike against targets in occupied Crimea on the night of April 29 to 30.
• Tajik Foreign Minister Sirojiddin Muhriddin expressed outrage over Russian authorities’ treatment of Central Asian migrants, particularly Tajik citizens, indicating that increased Russian efforts to control migrants living in and entering Russia following the March 22 Crocus City Hall attack are continuing to strain Tajik-Russian relations.
• Former Georgian Prime Minister and founder of the Georgian Dream political party Bidzina Ivanishvili reiterated a series of standard Kremlin information operations during his first public speech since announcing his return to Georgian public politics in December 2023.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna, Chasiv Yar, and Robotyne.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported on April 30 that Russian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov and First Deputy Defense Minister Ruslan Tsalikov inspected a drone testing ground in an unspecified area of occupied Ukraine.
• An investigation by Russian opposition outlet Vazhnye Istorii implicates Kremlin-appointed Russian Commissioner on Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova and her sister in the deportation of special needs Ukrainian adults to Russia. . . .

 

“The Nepalese soldiers, assigned to military unit number 29328 of Russia's Armed Forces, are deserting due to heavy losses, non-payment of salaries, and commanders' abuse, "including executions for refusing to follow orders," according to HUR.

The agency published an alleged list of soldiers and profiles of some mercenaries. The Russian military has mostly failed at finding fleeing mercenaries in the occupied territories of Luhansk Oblast, where the military unit was deployed, HUR said.”

“Over 18,000 soldiers of the Southern Military District have abandoned their posts, with around 12,000 of them belonging to the 8th Combined Arms Army – a unit often deployed in hostilities in eastern Ukraine, Ukraine's military intelligence said on April 29.” by Kateryna Denisova, May 1, 2024 8:56 PM.

The Kyiv Independent
Military Intelligence: Nepalese mercenaries desert Russian army in drovesRussia's mercenaries from Nepal deployed in Ukraine are deserting the Russian army in droves, Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) reported on May 1...
55 minutes ago
https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-5/

 

.....maybe a pinch of salt required with this....????

 

well....I wonder if the Chinese government is rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of flooding the Russian market with cheap Huawei phones.....you know.....all as part of that full on relationship Russia and China enjoy so much....

Who says Chinese intelligence is monitoring Huawei!!!! Ridiculous.....China doesn't do things like that!!!! Absurd!!!!

 

Russian criminals at the top are under investigation. Russian criminals at the bottom are put in the army.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 1, 2024

Click here to read the full report.
Key Takeaways:

• The Russian military is reportedly redeploying elements of the 76th and 7th airborne (VDV) divisions from Zaporizhia Oblast in the direction of eastern Ukraine, likely to reinforce and intensify ongoing offensive operations.
• The Russian military may seek to redeploy elements of the 76th or 7th VDV division or both to eastern Ukraine to support Russia’s offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast and to capitalize on the current window of vulnerability before American military aid begins reaching the frontline at scale.
• Ukrainian forces struck an oil refinery in Ryazan Oblast for the second time in less than a month on the night of April 30 to May 1.
• Russian state-run news outlets appear to be amplifying anti-Western rhetoric from former Georgian Prime Minister and founder of the Georgian Dream party Bidzina Ivanishvili and are negatively portraying Georgians protesting against Georgia’s “foreign agents” bill, likely in an attempt to destabilize and divide Georgia.
• The United Nations (UN) and Western organizations continue to demonstrate how North Korea and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are directly and indirectly helping Russia’s war effort.
• Russian insider sources speculated that the criminal investigation into Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov may also implicate another deputy defense minister, Rustam Tsalikov.
• Bloomberg reported that four sanctioned Russian oil tankers have changed their names and are sailing under new flags.
• Russian forces made confirmed advances near Chasiv Yar and Avdiivka and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
• Russian authorities continue recruiting convicted criminals to fight in Ukraine. . . .

 

.....jeeezuz......this was them at ZAPAD 21.....the once cream of the Russian Airborne and now they're just meat....

 

Turned into chopped meat -- and for nothing Russia could not. have bought on discount.
What a waste.

WIRED
JUSTIN LING
SECURITY, Ukraine needs small drones to combat Russian forces—and is bootstrapping its own industry at home., May2, 2024.
https://www.wired.com › story › ukraine-drone-startups-russia
Inside Ukraine's Killer-Drone Startup Industry | WIRED

Today-On the top floor of a building somewhere in Ukraine is a drone workshop. Inside is a chaotic workbench covered in logic boards, antennas, batteries, augmented reality headsets, and rotor blades.
https://www.wired.com/story/ukraine-drone-startups-russia/

 

Executing prisoners and using chemical weapons are not good looks for Russia. Meanwhile there seems to be a lot of jostling at the top in Moscow.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 2, 2024

Click here to read the full report
Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian intelligence officials identified three Russian efforts to destabilize Ukraine and achieve victory, and both Ukrainian and US intelligence officials issued assessments about the battlefield situation that are consistent with prior ISW forecasts that Russian forces may take Chasiv Yar but are very unlikely to seize major Ukrainian cities.
• Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi assessed that Russian forces will likely begin an offensive effort towards Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts at the end of May or start of June 2024 but that Russian forces will not be able to take Kharkiv or Sumy cities.
• Skibitskyi noted that the Kremlin views information operations as a second line of effort to defeat Ukraine and that current Russian information operations heavily focus on undermining Ukrainian mobilization efforts and the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
• Skibitskyi stressed that Russia’s third line of effort to achieve victory in Ukraine is an ongoing campaign to diplomatically isolate Ukraine.
• The US Department of State (DoS) announced on May 1 that it has determined that Russian forces are violating the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), to which Russia is a signatory.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Tula Oblast Governor and known Wagner Group-affiliate Alexei Dyumin on May 2, further indicating that Putin may be seeking to reduce Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu's power by balancing him with rivals.
• Putin likely deliberately publicized his meeting with Dyumin following the high-profile arrest of Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov on April 24 and before the presidential inauguration on May 7, possibly to punish the Shoigu-led MoD for failing to accomplish the Kremlin’s military goals.
• The Putin-Dyumin meeting suggests that Putin is likely the responsible decision-maker behind Ivanov’s arrest.
• Recent Russian government crackdowns against Central Asian migrants living in and entering Russia following the March 22 Crocus City Hall attack appear to be straining Kyrgyz-Russian relations in addition to Tajik-Russian relations.
• The Georgian parliament passed Georgia’s Russian-style “foreign agents” law in its second reading on May 1 amid continued protests against the law in Tbilisi.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances west of Avdiivka.
• The Russian military may have recruited numerous prisoners with convictions for serious crimes in fall of 2023. . . .

 

There is only one cure for a rabid beast.

Macron Vows Troops If "Ukraine Requests Or Front Breaks ...
News18
21 minutes ago
https://www.news18.com/videos/world...advance-rattles-french-president-8876789.html

 

US materiel has again begun to arrive in Ukraine.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 3, 2024

Click here to read the full report with maps
Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian officials continue to highlight that Russia’s main goal for 2024 remains the seizure of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts as Russian forces plan for their summer 2024 offensive operation.
• The first deliveries of resumed US military assistance reportedly arrived in Ukraine earlier this week, although it will likely take several additional weeks before Western weapons and ammunition arrive to frontline areas at scale.
• Ukrainian officials indicated that Russian forces in Ukraine have not significantly increased in size in recent months but that the Russian military continues to improve its fighting qualities overall despite suffering widespread degradation, especially among elite units since the start of the war.
• Ukrainian officials indicated that the Russian military will likely maintain its current personnel replacement rate and will not generate the significant number of available personnel needed to establish strategic-level reserves for larger-scale offensive operations in 2024.
• Pavlyuk stated that neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces will be able to achieve victory in Ukraine solely through attritional warfare – a consistent throughline that Ukrainian officials and military analysts have emphasized in recent months.
• Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu issued a notably candid assessment of recent Russian advances in Ukraine and refrained from sweeping claims about the success of the Russian war effort, possibly in an attempt to temper domestic expectations about Russia’s near future successes in Ukraine ahead of the summer 2024 Russian offensive operation.
• A Russian insider source, who has routinely been accurate about past Russian military command changes, claimed on May 2 that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has replaced several high-level Russian commanders in recent months.
• NATO stated on May 2 that it is “deeply concerned” about intensifying Russian hybrid operations on NATO member territory and that these operations constitute a threat to Allied security.
• UK Foreign Minister David Cameron announced the United Kingdom’s intent to provide long-term support for Ukraine and stated that Ukrainian forces can conduct long-range strikes within Russia with UK-provided weapons.
• Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Kupyansk, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City.
• Rostec General Director Sergei Chemezov announced that Russian state-owned defense conglomerate Rostec is increasing its production of all variants of guided glide bombs during a May 3 meeting with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. . . .

 

Foreign investment continues to flow into Ukraine.

Ukraine remains attractive for business despite war, German minister says
Ukrainska Pravda on MSN.com
|2 hours ago [May 4, 2024]
Ukraine has remained attractive as a business destination even in times of war. Source: Svenja Schulze, Germany's Minister for Economic Cooperation and Development, in an interview with Ukrinform news agency,
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/05/4/7454248/

 

Ukraine keeps coming up with cheap effective DIY weapons systems to shut down Russian mechanized attacks.

“The caltrops are scattered in the path of a Russian convoy, blowing out their tires and leaving them more vulnerable. Once disabled, the vehicles are finished off using low-cost quadcopter explosive-laden drones or artillery.
However, unlike in the past, specialist drones were used to deploy the caltrops under the cover of the night—a simple yet very effective tactic. Once scattered, wheeled vehicles have their tires blown out, making them sitting ducks.
Even if not destroyed outright, the loss of multiple, or all, tires seriously hampers the movement of Russian personnel and materiel until recovery or repairs are carried out.” INTERESTING ENGINEERING.COM, Ukraine drone-drops ancient caltrops to stop and bomb Russian trucks, Used for thousands of years, caltrops have emerged once again to help defeat the Russian forces., Christopher McFadden, Published: May 06, 2024 06:25 AM EST.

https://interestingengineering.com › innovation › ukraine-caltrops-disable-russian-vehicles
Ukraine drone-drops ancient caltrops to stop, bomb Russian trucks
Caltrop and drone combo. Caltrops have been recorded in use by Ukraine to defend its fortified positions, but this is the first time they've been seen on the offensive in Russian-occupied territory.
https://interestingengineering.com/innovation/ukraine-caltrops-disable-russian-vehicles

 

Could the Russians really be planning to take the war into NATO Europe? That would be a colossal error, but not Putin's first.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 5, 2024

Click here to read the full report
Key Takeaways:

• The Russian military reportedly redeployed a battalion of the 76th Airborne (VDV) Division to Kursk Oblast as part of a larger ongoing Russian effort to gather an operationally significant force for a possible future Russian offensive operation against northeastern Ukraine and Kharkiv City.
• The Russian military is reportedly preparing and forming the Northern Grouping of Forces from elements of the Leningrad Military District (LMD) to primarily operate in the Belgorod-Kharkiv operational direction.
• US officials continue to signal their support for new Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in 2025, although ISW continues to assess that Ukraine should contest the theater-wide initiative as soon as possible because ceding the theater-wide initiative to Russia for the entirety of 2024 will present Russia with several benefits.
• European intelligence agencies reportedly warned their governments that Russia is planning to conduct “violent acts of sabotage” across Europe as part of a “more aggressive and concerted effort” against the West.
• The Kremlin-controlled Russian Orthodox Church Moscow Patriarchate (ROC MP) seized on the Orthodox Easter holiday on May 5 to further its efforts to garner domestic support for the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk and Robotyne.
• Bureaucratic issues continue to constrain frontline Russian units’ ability to conduct strikes on Ukrainian targets. . . .

 

Putin is now a fully exposed desperate outlaw.
The Guardian
Russia-Ukraine war live: Kyiv urges allies not to recognise Putin as ‘legitimate president’ as Moscow announces nuclear weapons drills
Kremlin says tactical drills are a response to statements from the west about possibly sending troops to Ukraine.
.
LIVE43 minutes ago [May 6, 2024]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...alse&page=with:block-6638d59b8f08cb3df581b1ea

 

what was it Tacitus said....we created a desert and called it peace.....was it Tacitus...?? Can't remember....some Roman bloke anyway....about what they did after Carthage flattened it and salted the fields....



Bakhmut 1 year on

 

“They have plundered the world, stripping naked the land in their hunger… they are driven by greed, if their enemy be rich; by ambition, if poor… They ravage, they slaughter, they seize by false pretenses, and all of this they hail as the construction of empire. And when in their wake nothing remains but a desert, they call that peace.”
― Tacitus, The Agricola and The Germania

*******

Calgacus appears only to give a speech exhorting his followers to resist as free Britons. It contains the famous epigram 'ubi solitudinem faciunt pacem appellant', 'they create a desert and call it peace'. However, such speeches are a convention of Graeco‐Roman histories.

Calgacus - Oxford Reference

 

Here is a good source and link to the Tacitus quote:

‘They make a desert and call it peace’:
The nature of roman rule
robbers of the world, now that the earth is insufficient for their all-devastating hands
they probe even the sea; if their enemy is rich, they are greedy; if he is poor, they
thirst for dominion; neither east nor west has satisfied them; alone of mankind they
are equally covetous of poverty and wealth. robbery, slaughter and plunder they
falsely name empire; they make a desert and they call it peace.
(Tacitus, Agricola, 30.4)"
https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt183pb5x.7?seq=1

 

.......from North Korea by any chance.......

 

Putin is desperate.


The Jerusalem Post

Ukraine catches Russian agents plotting Zelensky assassinationUkraine's SBU State Security Service said it had caught Russian agents within the Ukrainian state guard servic.

.

25 minutes ago [May 7, 2024]




https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-800285

 

Thinking with the little head.

 

......or getting some head.....