Plentiful Arctic Ice Sept. 2021

Once again the data embarrass the approved narrative.
The Embarrassing Pause In Arctic Sea Ice Loss Has Lasted 17 Years, Defying IPCC, NSIDC Predictions
By Kenneth Richard on 8. January 2024

“ince the dramatical decline of the ice extent in 2007, the summer Arctic sea ice area has not declined further.” – Astrup Jensen, 2023
Scientists have been using the year 2007 as the starting point for assessing Arctic sea ice trends for nearly a decade. A 2015 study published in Nature Climate Change reported a “near-zero trend” in summer sea ice over the 7 years from 2007-2013.



Image Source: Swart et al., 2015 (full paper)
Another 10 years have now passed and there is still no evidence of a further decline in sea ice.

This is interesting because since late 2007 scientists have predicted Arctic sea ice would decline rapidly as CO2 continued rising – from 385 ppm in 2007 to 422 ppm today. There were 20 models referenced by the IPCC (AR4) projecting a 40% loss of sea ice by 2050 due to an allegedly enhance greenhouse effect associated with anthropogenic CO2 emissions.

But a new study reveals there’s been no declining trend in summer sea ice area over the last 17 years, and “no apparent correlation” between CO2 and sea ice trends.

“The Arctic Sea ice extent is measured by satellites and varies by day, month and year, and the yearly minimum ice extent will occur in a day of September month every year. The ice extent is much lower now (2023) than in 1978, when the satellite measurements began. However, it has not been a gradual decline. A major decline happened during the years 1997 – 2007. Before that the decline was minimal and after that period, there was no significant downward trend.”

“These data show that there is no apparent correlation between the variable extent of the Arctic and the Antarctic Sea ice and the gradually increasing CO2-concentrations in the atmosphere as proposed by NSIDC, IPCC and others, also for these areas of cold climate.”



Image Source: Astrup Jensen, 2023

 

I have been noticing that warmist/alarmists have become quiet in a lot of weather metrics because it doesn't meet their cult religion paradigm.

Tropical Storm trends slow decline
Hurricane trends stable
Major Tornado trends in decline
Snowfall trends slight overall increase
Wildfire trends in decline
Drought trends in decline
Flooding trends in slight increase

This is why they continually fill their pants over spike warming events that are predominantly generated by El-Nino's and no warming in between them which shows that CO2 doesn't do a dam thing at the 430 ppm level.

Fact: No Hot Spot exist.

Fact: No positive Feedback Loop exist.

Fact: The AGW conjecture has failed as CO2 isn't a driver of warming trends.

It is the warmist/alarmists who the real deniers because they by design completely ignore hard data facts because they are fully invested in a climate cult where they are taught to fear a doomsday future, that is a sign of mental illness.

 

So much ice!
For This Time Of Year, Arctic Sea Ice Has Risen To It’s Highest Level in 21 Years
By P Gosselin on 14. January 2024

Some alarmist scientists claim it’s the hottest year on record, yet Arctic sea ice for this date stands at its highest level in 21 years.
Hat-tip: EIKE here.


Source: NSIDC

This year’s reading – up to January 8 – has now far exceeded the average for the years 2011-2010, also exceeds the average for the years 2001-2010 and points directly upwards with regard to the average for the years 1991-2000:



Source: NSIDC

Much like Greenland, the Arctic continues to defy the dogmatic prophecies of the AGW party; and the party has long needed a time machine to confirm its hopeless predictions: “Ice-free in summer by 2014”.

Where’s the melt?

The latest update shows the tide seems to have turned for Arctic sea ice, especially this season, which has seen the largest extent in 21 years (since 2003). At 13,741 km², the total area for 2024 is well above the 2011-2020 average and even exceeds the 2001-2010 average:



Source. NSIDC

 

Something has gone wrong with the quote function. Jack wrote:

That's the problem with claiming that the down- (or up-) phase of a natural cycle is a man-made secular trend: pretty soon, the cycle proves you wrong.

2011-2020.

13,741 thousand km².[/QUOTE]

 

It's more difficult to model the ice than has been believed.
New Study: Greenland’s Ice Stream Flow Patterns Change Internally, ‘Spontaneously’ Within Centuries
By Kenneth Richard on 1. March 2024

Ice flowed out of the interior of the Greenland ice sheet at much stronger rates and with much greater variability than today throughout the Holocene – or until about 2,000 years ago.
New research (Jansen et al., 2024) has determined Greenland’s ice streams vary according to internal processes, and not necessarily due to external changes in geothermal heat flux anomalies or climate.

These internally-variable ice stream patterns can change significantly in magnitude within time frames of just a few centuries, not the long-assumed 10,000- or 100,000-year time-spans.

This discovery of Greenland’s internally variable centennial-scale ice stream patterns should strongly impact modeled estimates of Greenland’s ice stream-based contributions to sea level rise, as it has long been assumed external factors (such as anthropogenic CO2 emissions) play an instrumental role in ice stream dynamics.

“Our results contradict the assumption that the ice stream has been stable throughout the Holocene in its current form, with distinct shear margins [ice flow volume changes] on time scales of hundreds of years, which is a major challenge for realistic mass-balance and sea-level rise projections.”



Image Source: Jansen et al., 2024

 

Arctic ice continues to be plentiful.
Germany’s Alfred Wegener Institute Shows January Arctic Sea Ice Now 20 Years Stable!
By P Gosselin on 27. March 2024

Winter sea ice in Arctic stable over past 20 years…has even recovered somewhat.
Hat-tip: Klimanachrichten

Arctic sea ice extent as recorded by Germany’s Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) in Bremerhaven, Germany, looks at the situation in January 2024. Despite the record temperatures reported, the ice in the Arctic has recovered somewhat.

The slight recovery trend since the Arctic minimum was reached is continuing at the beginning of 2024, with the sea ice extent at the beginning of the year below the average value for the years 1981 – 2010, but in the lower range of the extreme values (minimum / maximum) of this international climate normal period (Figure 1).

If we look at the new reference period 1991 – 2020 introduced by the World Meteorological Organization in 2021, January 2024 is roughly in line with the mean value of this period (see interactive graphic). The average Arctic sea ice extent in January was 13.99 million square kilometers, around 400,000 square kilometers greater than the ice cover in January over the last 20 years (Figure 2). During the month, the extent increased by approximately 29,000 square kilometers per day, which was slower than the average increase from 1981 to 2010.”


Image: Screenshot Meereisportal.de

Among highest in past 20 years

The above chart indeed shows a stable trend over the past 2 decades. According to the AWI:

This year’s maximum sea ice extent most likely occurred on February 27, at 14.94 million square kilometers. The monthly average ice extent in February was 14.65 million square kilometers.”

That makes it higher than 15 of the past 20 years.

Compared to the long-term average for the years 2003 – 2014, it is noticeable that the sea ice cover in the northern Barents Sea is lower, but the Greenland Sea and the northern Baltic Sea in the Gulf of Bothnia and the coastal zones of the Barents Sea have more extensive sea ice areas. This indicates lower and longer-lasting cold periods in these regions.”