This might help those who suffer hurricanes, at the least think of preparations for hurricanes in the USA This is more to inform posters than to cause debates. This serious topic has killed humans and destroyed property so accept this as a public service piece. https://judithcurry.com/2017/06/08/cfans-forecast-for-the-2017-atlantic-hurricane-season/#more-23110
I saw the hindcast graphs on the site and while they look promising without knowing how they were derived it's hard to draw any definitive conclusions on the skill of their "model". Maybe it works. Maybe it doesn't. Most of the other published seasonal forecasts are for average (more or less) this year.
Considering El Ninozilla never happened and a La Nina year filled the reservoirs to the point of spillway failure And the Sierra snow pack is a record. I just don't trust "models". Except the leggy kind.
Record 140 Straight Month Stretch Without Major Hurricane Strike... NOAA: Record 140 Straight Months Without Major Hurricane Strike June 26, 2017 | Saturday, June 24 marked the completion of a record 140 straight months since the last major hurricane made landfall in the continental United States, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
ee But.... but..... the Climate Change Sharia cabal swore that storms would increase in frequency AND severity as a result of that very scary climate change. They PROMISED and they're all so scientific and such.....
No. AGW does not posit that hurricanes will become more frequent. In fact, it is believed that they might actually become less frequent.
The Greatest State of California is so littered with faults, the earthquake kind , that earthquake damage is relatively confined compared those in the Midwest or East or compared to hurricanes too. Our wise geography absorbs the temblor before it can travel far from its' source.
Thank you. Seems like a calm year. Isn't that contrary to Global Warming alarmist? Deckle will you keep "us" current on the 2017 Hurricane and Tropical Storm count as they happen? Gracias. BTW The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season is an ongoing event in the annual formation of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. The season officially began on June 1, and will end on November 30, 2017. So it's not like forever. We're already one month covered. Some activity but, no landfall. It seems some are covering their ( )0( ) claiming a "delayed El Nino" will cause more storminess than earlier predicted. Gotta love weather forecasters covering all bases. Right there with economist. And Global Warming Alarmist. Too much. Too little. Blame Man Made Global Warming. Moi r > g Make Pay Its' Fair Share!
Why do so many misunderstand climate change claims? Also, why don't people understand variance? The claim is not that every year will be worse than the last. The claims are that they will increase in intensity and frequency of high intensity hurricanes. The effects of climate change should not be looked at snapshots of each year. Many factors play roles into determining climate and climate will VARY from year to year, but climate change claims are referring to the trends across years. Thus, one quieter year, does not disprove climate change. Is this really that hard to understand?
And I claim there were warmer periods of longer duration within the written history of people. And there be cold periods too. Remember Hans Brinker and the Silver Skates? When was the last time the canals of Amsterdam froze so solid? How's a Little or Big Ice Age going to effect food production? It is good to live in a warm period. Unless it brings Mongols or Vikings or Goths to your home. Support History, Not HERstory. What's not to understand? Try review the first few minutes where it discusses the Medieval Climate Optimum. The Bane of Global Warming Alarmist. Moi Climate Change Happens, Just Like Weather. Never static. r > g Hoards Ice.
