Any Stock, Commodities, FX, Bond , Traders here? Tips, Ideas, etc...

Discussion in 'Finance' started by liberalminority, Feb 8, 2013.

  1. liberalminority

    liberalminority Well-Known Member

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    I mostly try to stick with currency, but all the markets are correlated so we can all share ideas. The market isn't looking good, there was dumb money pumped into it and inside traders are selling off according to CNBC.

    Euro and all the risk currencies are falsely propped up, but appear like a retracement will support a bearish outlook and reversal of present market trends.

    Anyone in any trades or investments at the moment?
     
  2. IgnoranceisBliss

    IgnoranceisBliss Well-Known Member

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    I'd consider jumping on Apple. It's so undervalued right now it's incredible to see. I'd take it as more of a value position, unless you really understand options. Personally, I think most investors would benefit just from jumping on a variety of ETFs. Passive investments beat the majority of mutual funds. I hate seeing my money disappear with high expense ratios. The different kinds of ETFs they have now are incredible. If you're looking at currency, I know they have ETFs designed around hedging the dollar that you may be interested in.
     
  3. pimptight

    pimptight Banned

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    Currency index funds for countries not trying to devalue their currency by printing money.

    Get your money out of stocks. The market is going to crash 50% again in the next year. The bond markets are screaming this is about to occur.
     
  4. politicalcenter

    politicalcenter Well-Known Member

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    There is nothing wrong with cash.

    If buying stocks look at book value vs stock price. If the book value is lower than the stock price then it is probably a good buy....but not always.

    I am saving my money until everyone panics....thats the time to get in. Don't buy high only to sell low.
     
  5. pimptight

    pimptight Banned

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    Great plan, I took the 5,000$ I had at the time and bought Ford stock after the crash, wanted to put into BofA and Citi, but wouldn't be able to look at myself in the mirror.

    I do have some question as to whether we can print enough money to create the next bubble after the next crash though.
     
  6. politicalcenter

    politicalcenter Well-Known Member

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    If you feel that way buy some gold or silver.

    I still have some silver I bought years ago at 8 to 13 dollars an ounce. I am paying for a safety deposit box however.

    The problem with physical gold or silver is that you pay over spot price to purchase and you get under spot price to sell.
    I paid .50 cents over spot and was selling at .50 under. You also have to be very careful not to pay too much. KITCO has sliver and gold spot prices on their website.

    You could also investigate calls and puts for stocks....very risky.
     
  7. pimptight

    pimptight Banned

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    The answer to this is mining companies. I have some money invested here in case the dollar collapses. Of course if the dollar collapses, I'm not sure gold would even be worth anything. I have a feeeling the only currency that would matter would be ammo.
     
  8. politicalcenter

    politicalcenter Well-Known Member

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    I would rather have to silver after it is out of the ground. The gold also.
    You could also invest in land....a cow gains weight every day...and eats grass and I feed my pigs surplus food that would otherwise be thrown away. My beef cost about a 1.50 a pound and my pork about .80 cents a pound.

    But I NEVER get a vacation.

    Gotta go... big day tomorrow. We are moving Bruno ..our big boy.
     
  9. liberalminority

    liberalminority Well-Known Member

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    Gold falls to a six month low, maybe green pastures are ahead for the markets.

    Beware of being adverse to risk over the macro
     
  10. politicalcenter

    politicalcenter Well-Known Member

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    The problem with mining companies (stocks) are the fact that a lot of stock is held in mutual funds. When a panic happens people sell off their funds and good companies get hurt along with the bad. So if the market crashes almost all stocks will take a hit.

    When everyone panics ...that is the time to get in. You can always buy so called recession proof stocks such as Family Dollar and General Dollar and Treehouse Foods.

    But....if major oil companies take a hit... buy them.

    But I think land (zoned agriculture) is the best bet. If take out a loan and money inflates it will just make it more valuable because the bank has to abide by the terms of the loan. So they will take the loss due to inflation.

    And if you pay cash.....no payin on the intrest while waiting for the principal
     
  11. dudeman

    dudeman New Member

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    IF I were to consider a stock pick, it would be something like Public Service Enterprise Group (ticker PEG), Johnson and Johnson (JNG), Dupont (DD) or something along those lines. They all pay a 3+ % dividend which is far higher than anything you get from CD rates or Treasury notes and the downside shouldn't be devastating even during a crisis. That being said, I am still standing on the sidelines as I don't need the money and I don't see any reason for me to take any risk for the next four years. The only thing I'll consider is rural farming land.
     
  12. liberalminority

    liberalminority Well-Known Member

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    Apple gave a good buying opportunity last week when their stock fell, its too late now to get in though it already resumed the trend.

    What scares me in buying during sell offs is it could go oversold for a little bit, and I like to leverage high for bigger returns.

    Not a good way to trade, but I'm greedy.

    That's a good idea, they were just talking about a high dividend stock taking a big hit last week.
     
  13. liberalminority

    liberalminority Well-Known Member

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    There saying expect a correction before the bull market resumes, any thoughts?
     
  14. pimptight

    pimptight Banned

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    Yes, the economic conservatives were 4 years early to the game, and we are seeing the signs of low interest rates generating inflation.

    The correction this time is going to be permanent, and there will be no return of a bull market, until we address our trade imbalances.
     
  15. liberalminority

    liberalminority Well-Known Member

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    You think the top is formed now? I thought it would give a little more before it sells off, and that this is only a short term correction.
     
  16. politicalcenter

    politicalcenter Well-Known Member

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    One thing to know about the market. It is insane and makes no sense.

    Every time someone (just about anyone) opens their mouths it either rises or falls.

    The best way I have found is to wait until everyone panics, the stocks are undervalued, and then buy good companies.

    Don't buy stocks (my rule) that pay the CEO over 2 million a year. Buy stocks with a history of dividends. If a stock has just raised the dividend seriously consider it. And....by the time it gets to CNBC or Bloomberg it is too late.
     
  17. pimptight

    pimptight Banned

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    I can't say when exactly this will happen. I thought Spain and Portugal were going to break up the EU before 2012 was over.

    All I can really say for sure, is that the last time we saw storm clouds gathering like this, it gave us the great depression.

    We have the education bubble building, the bond market bubble created by low interest rates, the European banking crisis, we still have all the misaligned interests in the swaps market that gave us the GFC, economic world powers have been engaged in currency wars since the GFC going on 5 years now.

    We really are building a perfect storm right now.
     
  18. politicalcenter

    politicalcenter Well-Known Member

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    Its the Sequester guys...until they get a handle on it the market will be in bearish mode.

    I have been working from daylight till dark and haven't kept up with the news. Watch Mad Money and get Jim Cramers take on it...he is pretty good at this kinda stuff.

    I also want to say for the record I own a few stocks but I am basically out. My biggest holding is Linn energy LINE and i haven't looked at it for over two years.
     
  19. liberalminority

    liberalminority Well-Known Member

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    Well today most stocks sold off again, but it wasn't definitive that it will continue for a longer trend so hopefully tomorrow gives good direction. My bias is still more bullish sentiment propped up by 'dumb money' as CNBC puts it...The FOMC news that spurred the sell off yesterday appears to have been misinterpreted as hawkish for now.

    The hardest thing is waiting, so patience is important.
     
  20. liberalminority

    liberalminority Well-Known Member

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    Hope it is not the sequester or the market will be volatile with no direction until then. Ben Bernanke is suppose to speak on Tuesday, hope that finally gives the market direction. If he says he will end stimulus, then it will be bad for the market because now it is moving good with stimulus.

    Sequester doesn't really affect the economy, because the only thing held hostage is 800,000 government jobs not any private sector jobs. But maybe it could, not sure Cramer didn't mention it just the Bernanke speech next week.
     
  21. politicalcenter

    politicalcenter Well-Known Member

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    I could be wrong. I have been wrong before. That is why (if buying) I wait for the panic and buy good companies that have been hit by a bad market.
     
  22. liberalminority

    liberalminority Well-Known Member

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    Well the panic is Tuesday, Italian elections are going to cause problems they have a Comedian with a good chance to be President. That is why Rome fell.

    Then Bernanke will talk about printing money, and the sequester is coming soon. It looks like it won't be wise to make a trade until after this month is over.
     
  23. liberalminority

    liberalminority Well-Known Member

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    Italian elections sent stocks down today, good time to buy if you're expecting a long bull market trend in risk assets.

    But panic still remains, Bernanke speaks tomorrow and the Italian elections still need to finalize. The sequester also looms for Friday, so a safer trader would probably wait til the end of the week.

    Not me
     
  24. pimptight

    pimptight Banned

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    Yeah right. I think the fear the world has of Italy, has more to do with the possibility they might stop playing by the rules.

    You know, start acting in the Italian people's interests, instead of the central banksters.
     
  25. liberalminority

    liberalminority Well-Known Member

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    Italians have one of the most ignorant governing bodies on the planet, that of which sustains their enormous welfare state deficits.

    They could not pick a leader, and now the markets are volatile and irrational. They have some sort of leader less nation now, it would be better off for the world if it descended into anarchy. Their parliament is split since the voters did not substantially elect a specific leader.

    Don't know whats going on there, but its wreaking havoc for everyone until they get their house in order..
     

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