Any Stock, Commodities, FX, Bond , Traders here? Tips, Ideas, etc...

Discussion in 'Finance' started by liberalminority, Feb 8, 2013.

  1. pimptight

    pimptight Banned

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    Sure they did. (E-sarcasm)

    Just like the rest of Europe and the US went from unparralelled economic status to the verge of bankruptcy in a decade. (E-sarcasm)

    Its not like the banksters have pulled off the greatest hiest in history of the planet, and that is what is actually bankrupting us. (E-sarcasm)
     
  2. Toro

    Toro New Member

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    I have spent most of my career in investments. I have done pretty well (though I've sucked the past two years).

    Upon learning what I do, many people over the years have asked for investment tips. And I've always told them the same thing - don't take tips from strangers.
     
  3. liberalminority

    liberalminority Well-Known Member

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    Agreed, this should be more like a strategy rather than a tip thread. Mostly commentary, not actual trade set ups.

    That said, today rallied but still looks confused as Bernanke confirmed dovish tone and reinstated stimulus, printing money, etc.... It's basically saying take bets with the FED now instead of against like before .

    Although no major moves yet, so maybe it could take as long as the US Jobs report next month, or at least the sequester since it doesn't appear to be priced in yet.
     
  4. Toro

    Toro New Member

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    I was in meetings all day today so I didn't follow what the market was doing. However, I had purchased some SPDRs a few days ago when the VIX spiked and closed the trade out this afternoon.

    Some argue that the efficacy of QE is declining, but I'm not sure. The anatomy of QE since 09 has been such that there has been an explosion higher over one or two days followed by a steady grind higher. This happens for 6-8 weeks and there is a small correction of 3%-4% and the ascent then resumes for another 6-8 weeks. Thus far, the script is being followed. We have corrected by that amount over the past few days. So we should start moving through the highs in the next several trading days. However, the charts look like the rally the past few days is just a dead cat bounce. I'd rather see it churn a bit on lower levels to build a base, then move higher.

    I bought the Canadian dollar today. It's oversold. It went down something like 8 days in a row, then bounced off support around 0.96-0.97. I expect a rally up to 0.99 then hit resistance.

    Disclaimer - I have sucked over the past few years, so take what I've said with a grain of salt. Also, I will change my mind if I think I'm wrong and blow out my positions and not tell you. So caveat emptor.
     
  5. Toro

    Toro New Member

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    Stopped out of my loonie long.
     
  6. liberalminority

    liberalminority Well-Known Member

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    Yep, looks like a short term correction of risk before it resumes. Still think the economy is improving, but they are making a good case that this is a top for further long term weakness.

    The USD CAD looks like it will make the 1.0400 resistance before reversal towards Canadian dollar strength.
     
  7. liberalminority

    liberalminority Well-Known Member

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    Sequester did not move the market down, if anything it appears to spark a reversal of risk to substantiate a bear trap.

    They are saying that no one fears the sequester, so guess will have to wait another week again for a good directional bias. Jobs numbers come out next Friday. Good luck.
     
  8. Toro

    Toro New Member

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    Interesting factoid: January was up 5%. There have been six other occasions since WWII when stocks were up 5% in January. Every other time, the market was up at least 16% for the year, and only once was the market up by less than 20%.

    With massive money printing and an ocean of money not in the stock market ...
     
  9. liberalminority

    liberalminority Well-Known Member

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    That could be a sign of a top for an over inflated market stimulated by the Fed, but it appears to be waiting for the Jobs numbers. If they are good it could mean Bernanke will continue for awhile, and that could keep the bullish momentum going for a little bit longer. Probably best to stay on the sidelines until then.

    FOMC hinted that stimulus could stop and that scared all the bulls.
     
  10. liberalminority

    liberalminority Well-Known Member

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    There is no participation in the markets, and they were down today. Although this week has a lot of news for bank policies, so this correction could present a buying opportunity for those who want to bet with the FED instead of against it.
     
  11. liberalminority

    liberalminority Well-Known Member

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    It rallied intraday, its so hard to time these short term moves.
     
  12. liberalminority

    liberalminority Well-Known Member

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    US dollar is getting stronger when the stock market rallies, inverse relationship now.

    That means economy is improving on fundamentals not just fed, problem is exports will take a hit on a strong American currency so that could give reason for a downturn in the future.
     
  13. Davea8

    Davea8 New Member

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    Greetings all. I have traded stocks for about 35 years and have found a way to identify market tops reliably. I wish I could identify bottoms. But I guess I can't have everything.

    My indicators told me last month that in late October we would have a final, new, all-time market high (not necessarily a Dow high). After that top, we would begin a new bear market that would last probably a couple of years.

    We are now seeing a new top as indicated by the S&P 500, Wilshire 5000, and Russell 3000, etc. The Dow went down today while the market hit new highs, signaling bearish non-confirmation.

    This is not my first shot at this. My first prediction was in 1980. I've accurately predicted every one since with the exception of 9/11 which was not due to normal market forces, but to unexpected crisis and fear that ensued. Otherwise my indicators would have signaled that one too. In 2007 those who heeded my warning saved a nasty fall and injuries.

    So be careful. If you see the market drop in November and breaking the current support trendlines, don't assume it will pass and will return to the bull.

    Am I boasting? No. I'm giving you a tip in the form of facts. Good luck.
     
  14. smevins

    smevins New Member

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    I am considering buying some moderately priced stocks that I can hold over a longer term--maybe 3-5 years. I am thinking microsoft would be a good one, as well as Walmart. Does anybody have any others they think might be worth looking into or should I wait for the next huge sell-off? I tend to distrust holding stocks that are largely based on the internet for that long of a time period.
     
  15. Just A Man

    Just A Man Well-Known Member

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    Do not listen to any, repeat, any, Market predictors. System or history, no one can tell you the future. That's how millions have been lost. Do not put all your money in one company. That's how millions have been lost. Do not be greedy and want an overnight fortune. That's how millions have been lost. I was frustrated at age thirty because I was a printer and was not putting away anything for old age. I studied the market and came away confused. Then one day a light came on. I set down with pin, paper, and calculator to set forth a plan of systematic savings. I was going to pay myself first and live on what was left. Anyone can do this. I then began depositing money into a conservative balanced mutual fund that had been around since 1939. Anyone can do it through Vanguard Financial Services. They charge me $10 a year. I decide which funds I want. On a printers' salary my goal was to retire at age 50. I retired at age 55 and am living the good life. Anyone can do it and you don't need a financial advisor. The Market is simple but too many people make it complicated. Put your money in a well established conservative mutual fund and you will do just fine if you stick with it over the years. Getting in and out of the Market is for gamblers. I hate losing even a penny so I don't gamble.
     
  16. pmc

    pmc New Member

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    Hi,
    I use astrology as well as tech analysis to try and figure out were the whole thing is going to go! I just set up a web site and have June's astrological forecast up. I you're interested in reading it check out http://www.seizingwallstreet.com. It's still under construction. Hope to have it fully up and running by the end of summer.
    Thanks for reading and good luck.

    p.s.
    John Wells had a couple of guests on the other day claiming a numerical code was given out for insiders to watch silver, as they expect a big move in the silver market coming soon! I don't know how accurate it all is but non the less interesting to listen to.
    You can listen to episode #68 by subscribing https://caravantomidnight.com
     

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